dein weekly - Indo German Newsletter

#27 - WK14

Sun, 05 Apr 2026 04:01:40 GMT

When missiles start hitting data centers, the world realizes that modern war has a new front, and it runs through fiber optic cables, not just borders.

This week, the conflict involving Iran escalated in ways that few analysts had fully anticipated. Strikes landed across multiple locations, infrastructure, military installations, and in a development that sent a chill through the global tech and financial community, a major data center took a direct hit. The implications of that single moment rippled far beyond the region. Data centers are not just buildings full of servers. They are the beating heart of banking systems, cloud platforms, payment gateways, and communications networks. When one goes dark under fire, it raises a question that boardrooms from Frankfurt to Bengaluru are now quietly asking: how exposed is our digital infrastructure to a conflict we assumed was happening somewhere else?

The attack also accelerated something that was already building, oil market anxiety. Iran's position in global energy flows is well understood, but markets this week moved not just on supply fears. They moved on uncertainty itself. That particular kind of fear, shapeless, hard to price tends to be the most expensive kind. Crude benchmarks swung. Freight risk premiums climbed. And the broader sense that this conflict is entering a more unpredictable phase settled over commodity traders and policymakers alike. For an economy like India, which imports the overwhelming majority of its oil, every dollar added to the barrel price is a slow tax on growth, on inflation management, and on the household budgets of millions.

Meanwhile, roughly 7,000 kilometers away in Germany, a different kind of reckoning was unfolding quieter, but no less significant for those paying attention.

Germany's public health insurance system, long regarded as one of the more robust models in Europe, is heading into a reform debate that has been building for years but can no longer be delayed. The Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung, the statutory health insurance framework that covers the vast majority of people in Germany is under serious financial pressure. Costs are rising, an aging population is drawing more from the system than it puts in, and the funding model is straining at its seams. The political conversation this week shifted from whether reform is needed to what shape that reform should take.

The proposals on the table range from increasing contribution rates to restructuring how premiums are calculated, and whether higher earners should bear more of the burden. For a country that has prided itself on universal, employer-shared health coverage, the debate touches something deeper than policy, it touches the social contract that postwar Germany built its stability upon. The outcome of these conversations will shape not just healthcare access, but labor costs, employer decisions, and the broader attractiveness of Germany as a place to work and build a life.

This week in opportunity section, we have convered Gift City Fund, explaining why it might be the smart decision for NRIs to invest in Indiae.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 73,319.55, down 0.36% from last week’s 73,583.22. The market was weighed down by cautious investor sentiment amid mixed corporate earnings and concerns over inflation’s persistent impact. Key sectors influencing the index included banking, which faced pressure due to rising loan defaults, and consumer goods, where demand showed signs of slowing.

In Germany, the DAX rose notably by 3.89% to close at 23,168.08 compared to last week’s 22,300.75. The market gained momentum driven largely by better-than-expected industrial output and positive earnings reports from the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Investor confidence was further supported by easing energy price concerns after favorable supply updates, which eased cost pressures for energy-intensive industries.

Germany News Roundup

Diesel Prices Hit Record High in Germany, reaching an unprecedented 2.327 euros per liter amid new pricing regulations and ADAC’s call for cartel authority intervention to moderate fuel costs. - Hallo München
Oil Price Shock Raises Asphalt Costs 30%, impacting Germany’s road construction industry with soaring Bitumen prices and risking project delays amid fixed-price contracts and supply concerns. - Merkur
Explosion in German ICE Train Investigated, with authorities probing political motives after multiple blasts caused minor injuries and a suspect linked to right-wing extremism was detained in custody. - DW
Every Sixth German Firm Eyes Defense Sector, actively exploring opportunities in the defense industry amid growing market interest and potential government contracts. - Wiwo
Merz Faces Backlash Over Syrian Refugee Return Plan, with critics highlighting lack of legal basis and economic risks, while underscoring Syrians’ vital role in Germany’s workforce and demographic stability. - Politico
German commission proposes health cost caps, to address insurance shortfall and control rising expenses through tighter treatment pay, pharmaceutical limits, and higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol. - Economic Times Healthworld
Germany Imposes Travel Permissions for Young Men, requiring men aged 17-45 to obtain approval before leaving for over three months, part of military expansion efforts to strengthen Bundeswehr by 2035. - United24Media
Sirius Acquires €93m German Defence Park, expanding its defence-related assets with a high-occupancy business park anchored by Rheinmetall near Kiel’s naval base, promising steady income and growth potential. - IPE Real Assets“

India News Roundup

India Sends Critical Fuel Support to Sri Lanka, delivering 38,000 metric tonnes amid West Asia conflict-induced supply chain disruptions to ensure Sri Lanka's fuel continuity with strategic cooperation between the two nations. - The Hindu
India Launches World's First Digital Census 2027, set to begin on April 1, 2026, transforming data collection with advanced digital technology for comprehensive demographic insights. - VisionIAS
Can India Thrive in Trump's World?, analyzing India's economic and geopolitical strategies to adapt and succeed amid shifting US policies under the Trump administration. - Carnegie Endowment
India’s Defence Exports Soar to Rs 38,424 Crore, driven by a 63% surge with the US as the top importer, reflecting growing global acceptance and increased exporter numbers in FY26. - ThePrint
FSSAI Makes Food Permits Permanent, enabling lifetime validity unless cancelled, simplifying registration, reducing renewal hassles, and introducing risk-based inspections while maintaining strict hygiene standards. - Times of India
Jan Vishwas Bill Enhances Ease of Living, Business, by amending 784 provisions across 79 laws to decriminalise minor offences and simplify legal processes, promoting Modi's vision of a New India. - Times of India
3M India Exits Precision Grinding Business, following global sale with shareholders approving key leadership and related party transactions in a decisive postal ballot process concluded March 26, 2026. - ScanXNews

Opportunity
Gift City Fund

India's GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) is rapidly emerging as one of Asia's most exciting financial hubs, deliberately designed to compete with Singapore, Dubai, and Luxembourg. Located in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, it operates as an International Financial Services Centre (IFSC), meaning funds domiciled here follow international regulations, offer dollar-denominated investing, and enjoy significant tax advantages. For the Indian diaspora globally, and particularly the estimated 32+ million Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) worldwide, this represents a rare moment: a regulated, Indian-government-backed gateway to invest in India's booming economy without the traditional friction of domestic compliance hurdles.

The Opportunity in Detail

GIFT City funds are structured as Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) or fund-of-funds registered under IFSCA (the regulatory authority), allowing NRIs and foreign investors to invest in Indian equities, debt, and hybrid strategies using foreign currency, primarily US dollars. The key advantages are compelling:

Tax efficiency: No capital gains tax within the IFSC jurisdiction for many instruments
No FEMA complications: Investments flow smoothly without complex foreign exchange management rules
Dollar-denominated returns: Protects against rupee volatility for overseas investors
Access to Indian growth: Exposure to one of the world's fastest-growing major economies

Several asset management companies have launched active funds here. Notable ones currently operating include:

Mirae Asset GIFT City Fund
Motilal Oswal IFSC Fund
ICICI Prudential GIFT City AIF
Nippon India GIFT City Fund
360 ONE GIFT City Fund

These funds primarily target Indian equities and offer professional management tailored for internationally-based investors.

Investment Angle & Considerations

For NRIs sitting on foreign savings seeking India exposure, GIFT City funds offer a genuinely cleaner, tax-smart route compared to traditional NRE/NRO account investments. Minimum investment thresholds can be higher than typical retail mutual funds, and liquidity terms vary by fund structure. Regulatory frameworks, while improving, are still maturing. Always verify fund credentials through the official IFSCA registry before investing.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As April begins, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting scheduled for the week ahead, where the committee faces the delicate task of balancing stubborn inflation against slowing growth, a tension that has defined much of the past year. Across the Atlantic, the United States releases its latest employment figures, a data point that continues to ripple through currency markets from Frankfurt to Mumbai.

Meanwhile, the first full trading week of April traditionally sets the tone for the second quarter, and investors worldwide will be watching closely to see whether the cautious optimism of recent weeks holds firm or quietly fades. The numbers will tell their own story soon enough.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#26 - WK13

Sun, 29 Mar 2026 05:01:30 GMT

When oil crosses $100 and stays there, it doesn't just hurt at the petrol pump, it rewires how governments spend, how businesses plan, and how ordinary people think about the future.

The Strait of Hormuz, that narrow stretch of water through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil travels, remained at the centre of global anxiety. US-Iran tensions showed no sign of cooling, and every rumour of a ceasefire was quickly cancelled out by fresh escalation. Oil markets responded accordingly: sharp rallies, sudden reversals, and by Friday, prices still stubbornly above $100 a barrel with no resolution in sight. For energy-importing economies, this is the kind of sustained uncertainty that quietly erodes growth forecasts and forces central banks into uncomfortable corners.

Global equity markets tried to make sense of it all, and largely failed. A strong mid-week recovery built hopes of a decisive directional move, but those gains evaporated almost as fast as they appeared. By the weekend, most major indices had returned to roughly where they started, leaving investors reading mixed signals and sitting on their hands. In market language, this is called indecision. In practical terms, it means money stays cautious, big investments get delayed, and sentiment remains fragile.

India wasn't immune. The rupee held near record lows against the dollar, a reflection not just of oil import costs, but of broader risk-off sentiment pulling capital toward safer havens. The India VIX (Volatility Index),, a measure of how nervous the market is about near-term swings, stayed elevated above 18 through the week. That number matters: it tells you that traders are paying up for protection, which is rarely a sign of confidence. For a market that had been quietly rebuilding momentum through early 2026, this week felt like a step backward.

Meanwhile, across a very different kind of policy table, Germany was quietly working through a reform that could reshape the economic lives of millions of households. The new coalition government is discussing a significant change to how statutory health insurance works: specifically, the proposal to end the long-standing practice of allowing non-working spouses to be covered under their partner's health insurance for free. The idea, currently under review by an expert commission, is part of a broader fiscal recalibration that also includes conversations around VAT increases and adjustments to income tax brackets.

The logic behind the change is straightforward, and deliberately dual-purpose. On one hand, it's designed to raise state revenues at a time when Germany needs to fund ambitious spending commitments, including defence and infrastructure. On the other, it's an economic nudge: by making non-employment more expensive for households, the government hopes to push more people, particularly spouses who have stepped out of the workforce back into paid work. Germany has a well-documented labour shortage, and this reform is partly an attempt to address it through the tax and benefits system rather than immigration alone. Whether it succeeds in that goal, or simply adds financial pressure to families in transition, remains a live debate.

Let's dive in.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed at 73,583.22 this week, down 1.27% from last week’s 74,532.96. The market fell amid concerns over rising inflationary pressures and mixed corporate earnings results. The banking sector saw a cautious response following Reserve Bank of India comments suggesting a possible interest rate hike to curb inflation. Additionally, the tech sector faced selling pressure after a few key companies reported slower growth, which affected overall sentiment. Investors remained wary as global economic uncertainties continued to weigh on Indian equities.

The DAX ended the week at 22,300.75, a slight loss of 0.36% compared to 22,380.19 last week. Market movement was restrained due to ongoing concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone and the impact of recent energy price fluctuations. The automotive sector reacted negatively to disappointing export figures, while manufacturing stocks were pressured by weaker industrial output data released earlier in the week. Meanwhile, financial services showed some resilience, but overall the index traded cautiously against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and mixed economic signals.

Germany News Roundup

Lufthansa Agrees Wage Deal for 20,000 Employees, including a 4.6% pay raise across over two years amid economic challenges, ensuring job security and no strike disruptions for ground staff in Germany. - Lufthansa Group Newsroom
RENK Secures Major Puma Gearbox Contract, to supply 188 HSWL 256 gearboxes for Puma IFV’s 800-kW power system between 2027 and 2030, enhancing vehicle mobility and operational capability. - Hartpunkt
SAP Acquires AI Data Specialist Reltio, to integrate advanced data management capabilities, enhancing AI readiness and data reliability across its Business Data Cloud platform. - Handelsblatt
EU Imposes Fee on Small Parcels from Third Countries, aimed to cover rising costs of handling cheap imports mainly from China, effective from November to ensure fair competition and enhance package inspections at EU borders. - DIE ZEIT
Deutsche Bahn Parts Ways with CFO Dohm Early, due to differing visions on the company’s future despite no doubts about her qualifications or integrity after just four months in the role. - DIE ZEIT
Germany Considers Social Media Ban for Children, aiming to restrict or complicate access to protect young users after similar steps in Australia and ongoing legal challenges in the U.S. - PBS
Germany’s €500bn Infrastructure Fund Falters, facing criticism for minimal new investment and primarily reshuffling existing expenditures, casting doubts on its effectiveness and economic impact under Chancellor Merz. - defence24.com
Germany Invests in STRILA Drones for Ukraine, supporting production of 15,000 interceptor drones to enhance Ukrainian air defenses and enable future exports of surplus units. - RBC Ukraine

India News Roundup

India Explores Local Currency for West Asian Oil, to cut costs and counter fiscal pressure from surging oil prices and rupee depreciation by paying about 80% of oil imports in local currencies instead of U.S. dollars. - The Hindu
India Cuts Fuel Taxes Amid Iran War, bearing increased energy costs to shield consumers from soaring global oil prices, impacting fiscal revenue and economic growth projections. - CNBC
India Secures Fuel Supplies Amid West Asia Tensions, ensuring 60 days of crude oil and one month of LPG availability, with increased domestic LPG production reducing import reliance and steady supply chains maintained despite demand surges. - The Hindu
Foreign Investors Withdraw Record $12 Billion, from Indian stocks in March 2026 due to Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies and triggering fears of slowed economic growth and a weaker rupee. - CNBC
Jaishankar Rejects India as Geopolitical Broker, stating India will not serve as a mediator in US-Iran talks despite Pakistan's proposal to host negotiations amid West Asia conflict. - India Today
RBI Requires Two-Factor Authentication April 1, introducing enhanced security for all digital payments to prevent unauthorized transactions and protect user accounts across India. - Upstox
Kotak Mahindra Nears Rs 4,500 Crore Deal, to acquire Deutsche Bank India's retail portfolio worth ₹27,000 crore, enhancing its consumer banking and wealth management segments. - Moneycontrol
India Travel Booking Market to Hit $132B by 2032, driven by rising leisure travel, expanding middle class, digital and offline booking channels, and evolving consumer preferences fueling strong market growth. - Yahoo Finance

Opportunity
European Energy Stocks Are Back in Focus

The energy sector in Europe is quietly staging a comeback, and some of Wall Street's sharpest minds are taking notice. After years of turbulence driven by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and wild swings in oil and gas prices, the European energy landscape is entering a more stable but still highly dynamic phase. Energy remains the backbone of every economy, and with the twin pressures of energy security and the green transition pulling in opposite directions, companies that can navigate both worlds are becoming increasingly attractive to investors. The timing matters: policy support, infrastructure investment cycles, and recovering demand are all converging right now.

Goldman Sachs, one of the world's most closely watched investment banks has identified a shortlist of energy companies it believes are particularly well-positioned for the months ahead. The bank's analysts are looking at firms that combine strong cash generation with credible long-term strategies, whether in traditional fossil fuel operations, energy infrastructure, or the transition toward cleaner sources. What makes this noteworthy is that Goldman is not simply chasing renewable energy trends it is focusing on businesses with solid fundamentals. These are not speculative bets; they are companies with proven business models that happen to sit at a critical intersection of current energy demand and future energy needs.

For a retail investor, the energy sector offers an interesting mix of income potential through dividends and moderate growth exposur, but it is not without risk. Energy stocks can move sharply with oil prices, regulatory changes, or geopolitical events, so position sizing and diversification matter. If you are building a portfolio with some exposure to real assets and global energy trends, this space deserves a closer look.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here: Business Insider Germany

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As March gives way to April, attention will turn to a busy week of economic signals worth watching closely. India's fiscal year draws to a close on March 31st, a moment that tends to bring both reflection and recalibration across boardrooms and balance sheets.

Meanwhile, global markets will be parsing fresh manufacturing and services data from major economies, seeking clues about whether resilience or caution will define the second quarter. For Germany, the question of industrial momentum remains quietly open. Sometimes the turn of a calendar page is less a milestone than a prompt.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#25 - WK12

Sun, 22 Mar 2026 05:00:55 GMT

When oil tankers start nervously rerouting through the Strait of Hormuz, the ripple effects don't stay in the Middle East, they show up in your electricity bill, your car purchase decision, and quietly, in the earnings reports of companies you may own a share of.

This week, the fault lines between the US-Israel coalition and Iran deepened further. Diplomatic back-channels that were barely functional a month ago have now gone almost completely silent, as military posturing intensified across the Persian Gulf. The United States reinforced its naval presence in the region while Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked infrastructure continued into their third consecutive week. Iran, for its part, has responded with carefully calibrated threats, stopping just short of outright escalation, but doing enough to keep markets on edge. The critical question that traders, governments, and ordinary households are all asking in their own way is the same: How long before this disruption becomes permanent?

The answer is already showing up in energy markets. Germany, which spent much of 2024 and 2025 cautiously celebrating its progress toward energy stabilisation after the Russia shock, is now watching that hard-won stability come under fresh pressure. Wholesale electricity and gas prices have ticked upward sharply this week, as the market prices in the risk of supply disruption from a region that still moves an uncomfortable share of the world's oil. German industrial output, already fragile, is particularly exposed. Energy-intensive manufacturers who locked in contracts earlier this year are watching their margins quietly erode, and the political pressure on Berlin to respond with relief measures is building again. The ghost of the 2022 energy crisis has not quite left the room.

And yet, amid this anxiety, one story from the other side of the world offered a strikingly different kind of signal. Volkswagen has reclaimed the top spot in China's auto market in early 2026, overtaking BYD in overall sales figures for the first time in what feels like years. This is not a small footnote. China is the single largest automobile market on the planet, and for much of the past two years, the dominant narrative was that legacy Western automakers were being systematically outpaced by nimble, tech-forward Chinese EV brands. VW's return to the summit, even if provisional, suggests that the story is more complicated and more interesting than the headlines had made it seem. Whether this is a genuine strategic turnaround or a temporary blip ahead of BYD's next product wave remains to be seen.

And in this week's Opportunity section, we look away from the geopolitical noise entirely toward India's tyre industry, where falling raw material costs and rising vehicle volumes are quietly expanding profit margins in one of the most unglamorous but fundamental sectors of the economy. Sometimes the best investment stories don't make headlines.

Let's dive in.

Stock Market

This week, the Indian Sensex edged down marginally by 0.04% to close at 74,532.96, showing relative stability amid a modestly negative sentiment. Market activity was influenced primarily by mixed corporate earnings reports and cautious reactions to global economic signals. The IT sector remained a key focus, with several major firms reporting steady quarterly results, helping to anchor investor confidence. Meanwhile, the banking sector faced some pressure due to concerns over rising loan default rates and tightening credit conditions.

In Germany, the DAX index experienced a notable decline, falling 4.55% to close the week at 22,380.19. This drop reflected heightened investor concerns following weaker-than-expected industrial data and clouds over the European economic outlook. The automotive sector, a significant component of the DAX, came under selling pressure due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and reduced demand forecasts. Additionally, the technology and manufacturing segments were weighed down by disappointing export figures and cautious corporate earnings guidance.

Germany News Roundup

Copper Price Faces Sharp Collapse, amid rising US producer prices and a strong dollar pressuring metals, indicating a potential correction in precious and industrial metals markets. - wallstreet-online
Knorr Faces Potential Billion-Euro Sale, with Unilever negotiating to sell its food division including Knorr to US spice maker McCormick amidst strategic business shifts, though deal certainty remains unclear. - t-online
EU Imports More Cars from China Than Exports, reflecting a shift with a 6 billion euro trade deficit, pressuring German auto industry and causing job cuts amid a strategic electric vehicle investment reevaluation. - Tagesschau
Thyssenkrupp Steel Deal with Jindal Falters, as negotiations stall with unanswered workforce questions, prompting IG Metall to demand clarity while exploring alternative plans excluding Jindal. - RP-Online
Aldi Ends Kiosk-Free Shopping Experiment, after challenges with upfront deposits and customer dissatisfaction led to reverting to traditional checkout in London, reflecting broader retail trends questioning such technologies. - Web.de
DAX Crash Reveals Europe’s Energy Crisis, as the conflict in the Middle East triggers soaring gas prices, prolonged supply disruptions, and stagnant economic outlooks with major financial impacts on German companies and markets. - Business Punk
Germany’s Economy Faces Rapid Decline, grappling with energy policy failures, industrial decline, rising costs, and political inertia hindering structural reforms despite fiscal resources. - TradingView
Germany’s Infrastructure Fund Misused, Sparking Debate, with reports showing up to 95% of its 500-billion-euro allocation diverted from the intended investment projects, raising concerns over government spending priorities. - Devdiscourse
Germany Pushes EU for Stronger Syria Support, to accelerate Syria’s economic recovery and energy sector revival post-conflict through enhanced investments, policy focus, and multibillion-euro aid packages amid ongoing challenges. - Tekedia

India News Roundup

AI's Limited Impact on India's IT Industry, explores why artificial intelligence has not triggered major disruptions within India's established IT sector, analyzing industry resilience and adaptation challenges. - Economist
Honda Boosts Indian Motorcycle Production Capacity, by adding a new line at its Rajasthan plant to increase annual output to 2.01 million units, creating 2,000 jobs and expanding overall capacity to 8 million by 2028. - Honda Global Corporate Website
India Diversifies LPG Imports Beyond West Asia, boosting US LPG imports to 176,000 tonnes to reduce reliance on West Asia amid supply disruptions and seeking other sources like Russia and Japan. - Times of India
India's Semiconductor Market to Expand Rapidly, with growth to $300 billion by 2035 driven by AI, automotive, and data centres, supported by local production and major investments under government initiatives. - The Hindu
India's Affordable Weight-Loss Drugs Revolution, will enable widespread access to semaglutide generics, drastically lower costs, and expand global obesity treatment through competitive domestic pharmaceutical production. - BBC
Thomas Cook India to Demerge Resort Business, enhancing capital structure, improving earnings per share, and enabling focused growth with the potential future listing of Sterling Holiday Resorts Ltd. - The Hindu Business Line
Bengaluru Hosts Berlin's Third International Office, supporting startups expanding between Berlin and India by easing business setup and market entry in both regions. - Deccan Herald
Hapag-Lloyd and India Sign Maritime Intent, marking a strategic step to strengthen maritime collaboration between German shipping and Indian government sectors for enhanced economic and trade relations. - Hapag-Lloyd

Opportunity
The Tyre Sector - India

India's tyre industry is one of those sectors that rarely makes headlines, yet quietly powers one of the world's fastest-growing automobile markets. For years, tyre manufacturers were squeezed hard, raw material costs, particularly natural rubber and crude-oil-derived inputs, were stubbornly high, eating into margins and keeping profitability under pressure. But something meaningful has shifted. Input costs have begun moderating, and with India's vehicle volumes continuing to climb across passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers, the demand side of the equation looks increasingly compelling. This is not a flashy tech story, it is a fundamentals story, and those tend to be the most durable kind.

What makes this moment particularly interesting is the convergence of two positive forces arriving at the same time: falling costs and rising volumes. Tyre companies are seeing their profit margins expand as the gap between what they spend to produce and what they earn from sales widens. The replacement market, where vehicle owners buy new tyres independent of buying a new vehicle, adds a reliable, recurring layer of demand that is less sensitive to economic cycles than new vehicle sales alone. Additionally, the gradual shift toward larger, premium vehicles in India is nudging consumers toward higher-value tyre categories, which carry better margins for manufacturers. Export opportunities are also quietly growing as Indian tyre makers build global credibility.

For a retail investor, this sector offers an interesting entry point into a domestic consumption story with relatively straightforward business mechanics, companies buy raw materials, manufacture tyres, and sell them to automotive and retail channels. The key risks to watch include any sharp reversal in rubber or crude oil prices, which would compress margins again, and any slowdown in vehicle demand. Neither appears imminent based on current trends, but both deserve monitoring. If this kind of under-the-radar, margin-recovery story appeals to you, the full analysis breaks down exactly where the opportunity sits.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here:
Value Research - The tyre sector’s silent comeback

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As markets digest this week's signals, attention turns to a packed calendar ahead, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee wraps up its deliberations in early April, but before that, global investors will be watching flash PMI readings from the eurozone and India due late next week, offering the first real economic snapshot of March's business conditions.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the political calendar quietly advances as coalition-building conversations continue to shape who ultimately holds the reins in Europe's largest economy. Spring is arriving in both hemispheres, cherry blossoms in Frankfurt's parks, festival colours returning to Indian streets, a reminder that renewal has a habit of arriving whether markets are ready or not.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#24 - WK11

Sun, 15 Mar 2026 05:00:59 GMT

There are roughly 33 kilometres of water between Oman and Iran at its narrowest point. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of the world’s daily oil trade. This week, that sliver of water became the most consequential piece of geography on the planet, and its closure is now touching everything from your gas cylinder at home to factory energy bills in Germany.

Two weeks ago, Operation Epic Fury began. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28th, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear facilities, military installations, and leadership. Iran’s response was swift and asymmetric: missile barrages on US bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, drone strikes on Israeli cities, and, most critically for the global economy, an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials made their position clear: no oil leaves the Gulf without Iran’s permission. They have been enforcing it with drone strikes on tankers attempting to pass.

Now fourteen days in, the conflict shows no sign of cooling. Iranian missiles are still striking central Israel; US and Israeli jets are still hitting Tehran neighborhoods. Trump has deployed an additional 5,000 sailors and marines to the region while publicly downplaying the Hormuz threat. The US Navy has destroyed Iranian mine-laying vessels in the strait, but the blockade remains effectively in place for Western-flagged ships. The one sliver of hope? Iran has selectively allowed certain vessels through, a Turkish ship cleared passage on March 13th, and critically, two Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi tanker carrying one million barrels of crude destined for India were permitted to pass. India, it seems, is being kept in a separate diplomatic lane, for now.

But “for now” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. India is the world’s second-largest LPG importer, with 85-90% of its LPG imports sourced from the Middle East. The impact is already at kitchen. Indian Oil Corporation raised the price of a 14.2kg domestic LPG cylinder by 7%, from ₹853 to ₹913 in Delhi. Commercial cylinders used by restaurants and hotels jumped from ₹1,768 to ₹1,883. Commercial cylinder supply has been completely suspended in some areas and some state introduced a 25-day rule between successive cylinder bookings to prevent hoarding. India’s government has urged domestic refiners to maximize LPG production, but the math is uncomfortable: India simply cannot substitute two-thirds of its LPG imports from domestic production overnight.

Germany is feeling different but equally real pain. The country doesn’t import directly from the Gulf for most of its energy, relying primarily on Norwegian gas pipelines. But energy markets are interconnected, when Iran’s drone strikes disrupted Qatari LNG production, European wholesale gas prices surged regardless of where Germany physically sources its supply. Germany’s chemical, steel, glass, paper, and automotive industries already struggling after two years of near-recession, are now facing their second major energy shock in four years. The ifo Institute, Germany’s leading economic research body, has revised its spring forecast downward, warning that the Iran war consequences will dampen Germany’s recovery, though it stops short of predicting a return to recession if the conflict remains contained. The European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen has called for emergency subsidies and potential gas price caps to protect households and businesses.

On a lighter note, Germany delivered one this week, the country’s healthcare system announced something genuinely useful. From April onwards, heavy smokers aged between 50 and 75 who have smoked for at least 25 years will be entitled to a free annual lung cancer screening using low-dose CT scans, fully covered by statutory health insurance. The programme targets approximately 2 million people in Germany who meet the criteria, addressing a disease that kills around 45,000 Germans every year, almost all from long-term heavy smoking.

This week’s markets reflected all of this anxiety with painful clarity, Sensex shed over 5% in its worst weekly performance in four years, while DAX quietly bled as well, weighed down by energy cost concerns. We cover the full market breakdown in the Market Update section. And in our Opportunity section, we look at something that sits right at the intersection of this week’s conflict story and long-term European rearmament: the upcoming Frankfurt IPO of Vincorion, a German defense supplier that manufacturers critical power systems for NATO military platforms, and whose order backlog has grown to nearly five times its annual revenue.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Sensex registered its biggest weekly loss in four years this week. The index collapsed relentlessly through the week, closing Friday March 13th at 74,563, a staggering loss of over 5% in just five trading sessions. The driver was clear: the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict triggered a wave of panic selling. Energy stocks, auto stocks, and cement companies bore the brunt as oil price concerns hit sentiment hard. The only survivors were defensive names, consumer goods and telecom stocks, which ended marginally positive. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers throughout the week, amplifying the decline.

Germany’s DAX wasn’t spared either. The index closed Friday at 23,447, a weekly decline of approximately 0.6%. Over the past month, the DAX has shed over 6%, weighed down by the same Iran conflict fears, rising energy costs, and global risk-off sentiment. German industrial companies with energy-intensive operations are particularly vulnerable to oil price spikes.

Germany News Roundup

Iran War Could Spike Inflation to 6%, raising concerns over prolonged conflict driving oil prices up and risking Germany’s entry into a fourth recession year with critical gas storage shortages. - Spiegel
VW Regains Market Leadership in China, with a combined joint venture market share of 13.9%, surpassing competitors like Geely and Toyota in the Chinese automotive sector. - Handelsblatt
Rheinmetall Rejects VW Osnabrück Factory Takeover, leaving the plant’s future uncertain as VW plans to decide on its fate by year-end amid dwindling production and ongoing industry talks. - NDR
China Cuts Chemical Exports Disrupt Supply Chains, raising concerns as critical chemical supply chains face initial breaks impacting global industries and trade flows, particularly in Europe. - Wiwo
Germany Faces Crucial Regional Elections, marking a pivotal political year with five key elections impacting national governance and policy direction. - Deutsche Welle
Germany Upholds Nuclear Power Phase-Out, rejecting calls for a return despite EU support, with Chancellor Merz emphasizing energy policy consistency and opposition parties firmly against reviving nuclear energy amid economic and political challenges. - DW
New AI Data Centre Investment in Amberg, marks a strategic step towards European tech independence with a 30MW facility, costing hundreds of millions, aiming for operational status by 2027 without state subsidies. - Brandsit
Tesla Triumphs in German Labour Council Vote, defeating IG Metall union’s bid to control the works council amid accusations of employee pressure and union-busting tactics at its Berlin factory. - Times of India

India News Roundup

PM Discusses Iran's Situation with President, expressing concern over regional security, emphasizing dialogue, and prioritizing safety of Indian nationals and uninterrupted transit of energy and goods. - PMO India
US-Iran Conflict Impacts India and Asia More, with India, Japan, and South Korea facing direct economic and security challenges unlike China due to energy, labor, and geopolitical dependencies in the Middle East. - ORF Online
India Secures Majority Crude Imports Outside Hormuz, ensuring stable supply through 40 countries and enhanced LNG procurement amid regional tensions, while government monitors seafarer safety and port operations remain stable. - Newsonair
India's Supreme Court Permits First Passive Euthanasia, authorizing withdrawal of artificial life support for a vegetative 32-year-old man after 12 years, marking the first judicial approval of passive euthanasia in India. - Aljazeera
India Plans $11B Fund to Boost Chipmaking, aiming to become a global hub by subsidising chip design, manufacturing equipment, and supply chain development with launch expected in 2-3 months. - CNBC TV18
Indonesia to Acquire BrahMos Missiles from India, enhancing its military hardware and maritime defense capabilities through this significant procurement deal valued between $200-$350 million. - Business Times
India Strengthens Tourism Ties at ITB Berlin, with Germany and Indonesia, focusing on sustainable travel, air connectivity, and cultural exchanges to boost tourism flows and showcase India's diverse tourism offerings globally. - PIB

Opportunity
Vincorion’s Frankfurt IPO

Europe’s defense spending surge is creating a rare window: established, profitable defense companies rushing to go public before the opportunity window narrows. The latest and most immediately actionable is Vincorion, a Hamburg-area German defense supplier specializing in power systems and mechatronics for military platforms. The company makes hybrid energy systems, emergency power generators, stabilization systems for tanks, heaters for military aircraft, and critical components for air defense systems including the US-made Patriot missile system.

The business fundamentals are compelling. Vincorion generated €240 million in revenue in 2025, more than double its revenue just three years ago and sits on an order backlog worth approximately €1.1 billion, nearly five times its annual revenue. That backlog isn’t speculative; it represents confirmed future work from NATO member countries, Rheinmetall, KNDS, and Airbus. Institutional investors Fidelity, Invesco, and T. Rowe Price have already pre-committed €105 million before the IPO even opens, a strong signal of institutional confidence. The company is being valued at €850 million, six times its valuation when private equity firm Star Capital acquired it just four years ago, reflecting how dramatically the European defense investment landscape has transformed.

The IPO opens for subscription on Monday, March 16th, with shares priced at a fixed €17 each, and trading expected to begin on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on March 20th. For retail investors in Germany, this is accessible through standard brokerage accounts, a direct way to participate in Europe’s rearmament cycle without buying into already-expensive defense giants trading at elevated valuations. As with any IPO, risks exist: geopolitical developments could shift defense priorities, and post-IPO price volatility is common. But with a locked-in order backlog and cornerstone institutional investors already committed, Vincorion’s debut deserves serious attention.

Read the full details on the Vincorion IPO here:
MarketScreener: Defense Supplier Vincorion Rushes Toward IPO

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted before, and every time, the world found a way through. Whether through diplomatic back-channels, alternative shipping routes, or strategic reserves buying time, these crises eventually resolve. The question was never if, but how long. As we head into Week 12, watch Trump's diplomatic signals toward Iran, any ceasefire hint will trigger an immediate oil price drop and market relief rally.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#23 - WK10

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 05:01:23 GMT

This week, war stopped being abstract. Since February 28th, the United States and Israel have been conducting coordinated military strikes on Iran in what is now officially the largest Middle East military operation in decades. By day eight, US forces had targeted over 1,700 Iranian installations, Israeli jets had conducted over 1,600 sorties dropping more than 4,000 munitions. Iran has retaliated by targeting American military bases across the Gulf, forcing the closure of two US embassies and prompting evacuation warnings for American citizens in the region. President Trump declared he would accept nothing short of Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. The conflict that many analysts had feared for years has arrived and its consequences for global oil supply, Middle East stability, and financial markets are still unfolding in real time.

For India, this isn’t just a geopolitical headline. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil, with a significant portion traditionally sourced from the Gulf region. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on oil facilities and airports in neighboring countries have already rattled energy markets. A sustained conflict means higher oil import bills, upward pressure on Indian inflation, potential rupee depreciation, and fiscal stress on a government that had just presented a growth-oriented budget. It also means anxiety for the millions of Indian workers employed across Gulf states, whose remittances are a critical lifeline for families back home.

Amid the geopolitical turbulence, two distinctly German stories also made headlines this week. From September this year, visitors to Cologne Cathedral, one of Germany’s most iconic landmarks attracting 6.6 million tourists annually, will need to pay an entrance fee for the first time in the cathedral’s centuries-long history. The cathedral chapter cited rising costs of maintenance, security, and operations.

And then there’s bahn.bet. A Vienna-based artist named Caio van Caarven launched a satirical website this week that looks exactly like a sports betting portal except users bet fictional Euros on how late specific Deutsche Bahn trains will arrive. Using real-time train data and AI-generated code, the platform gives new users 1,000 fictional Euros to place wagers on actual long-distance train delays. The website went viral almost immediately.

In this week’s Opportunity section, we look at the defense stocks analysts identify as direct beneficiaries of the Iran conflict, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian equity market ended the week on a bearish note, with the Sensex closing at 78,918.9, down 2.9% from the previous week’s 81,287.2. The decline was mainly driven by broad-based selling pressure across key sectors, particularly financials and IT, amid concerns over tightening liquidity conditions.

The DAX closed the week at 23,591.03 points, down approximately 6.7% from the previous week’s 25,284.26, marking a notable correction. Despite the decline, the index showed resilience on Friday by resisting negative pressure stemming primarily from a sell-off in US tech stocks.

Germany News Roundup

Trump Meets Germany’s Merz Amid Iran Conflict, discussing leadership uncertainties in Iran and collaboration on post-conflict strategies while addressing rising oil prices and international responses to the U.S.-Israel military campaign. - PBS NewsHour
Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher, as crude oil prices surge 14%, surpassing a crucial threshold amid escalating tensions, impacting global energy markets and economic stability. - Handelsblatt
German Industry Warns on China’s Five-Year Plan, expressing concerns about China’s push for high-tech dominance and urging investment in key technologies and resilient supply chains amid climate policy shortcomings. - FAZ
European Airlines See Demand Rise Amid Iran Conflict, as Gulf carriers reduce flights, benefiting Lufthansa and others despite operational challenges caused by regional instability. - Handelsblatt
German Property Prices Decline Three Months, with mixed trends showing rising condo prices but slight falls in new single-family house values according to the Europace House Price Index. - FinanzMarktWelt
Merz Proposes Pension Linked to Working Years, urging citizens to start saving early, suggesting even €50 monthly can secure a substantial pension by retirement at 65 or later. - Tagesspiegel
Bundeswehr Conducts Large-Scale NATO Medical Drill, simulating evacuation and treatment of up to 1000 wounded soldiers daily from Lithuania, highlighting logistical challenges and readiness gaps before a potential conflict with Russia. - BILD
US Excludes Rosneft Germany from Russia Sanctions, allowing the energy company to continue operations despite ongoing sanctions on Russia. - TVP World

India News Roundup

Mark Carney Resets Canada-India Relations, focusing on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership, energy cooperation, critical minerals, and academia despite lingering security tensions from 2023 diplomatic fallout. - The Conversation
India-Finland Elevate Ties with Strategic Partnership, agreeing to deepen cooperation in digitalization, sustainability, trade, and multilateral issues to enhance bilateral relations and global collaboration by 2030. - pmindia.gov.in
India Secures Uranium via Canada Deal, boosting nuclear fuel supply from 2027 to 2035 to support expanding nuclear power and military programs despite challenges in domestic uranium extraction and program delays. - The Hindu
Middle East Conflict Risks $50B Indian Remittances, threatening income of millions of Indian workers in the Gulf and possibly impacting India's economy if the conflict prolongs beyond six months amid rising oil prices and higher aviation costs. - CNBC
US Grants 30-Day Waiver for Indian Russian Oil Imports, allowing India limited time to continue purchasing Russian oil despite sanctions, impacting global energy trade dynamics. - VisionIAS
India Revises GDP Measurement Framework, introducing updated base year 2022–23 and improved calculation methods for more accurate economic representation and growth projections. - Finshots
India-Germany AIP Submarine Deal Boosts Naval Power, acquiring six advanced submarines built in India with German technology to enhance underwater warfare capabilities and maritime security by 2036 under Project-75I. - Indian Masterminds Stories
ePlane Integrates HENSOLDT for Electric Air Taxi, enhancing the e200X with advanced avionics for safe, efficient urban flight and supporting certification under India’s DGCA regulations. - Indianweb2

Opportunity
When Conflict Drives Defense Demand

The US-Israel strikes on Iran this week didn’t just reshape Middle East geopolitics-they sent an immediate signal to defense investors. When military conflict escalates, the demand for specific defense capabilities follows a predictable two-phase pattern that creates identifiable investment opportunities. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock has mapped this playbook clearly: the companies that benefit first are those supplying systems that get consumed or damaged fastest in active combat - drones, kamikaze systems, air defense, and surveillance platforms.

The first phase of any sustained conflict drives immediate demand for battlefield-ready systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles - both reconnaissance drones and so-called kamikaze drones that self-destruct on impact, are central to modern warfare in a way they weren’t a decade ago. Iran’s conflict history and geography make air superiority and intelligence-gathering capabilities particularly critical. Alongside direct weapons systems, companies specializing in military maintenance, spare parts, and logistics services benefit significantly, the harder military aircraft and systems are used, the faster they require servicing and replacement components. These aftermarket defense businesses are often overlooked but generate highly recurring, predictable revenue streams during extended conflicts.

The second phase is where long-term investors pay close attention. As conflicts extend beyond weeks into months, military stockpiles deplete and governments shift from immediate procurement to systematic replenishment programs. This phase typically involves larger contracts, longer production cycles, and companies with capabilities in propulsion systems, hypersonic weapons, and precision strike technologies. One important note of caution from Leshock himself: most of these companies are already trading at elevated valuations, markets have anticipated much of this upside. For investors considering entry, disciplined risk management and strict stop-loss orders are essential rather than optional.

Read the full analyst breakdown with detailed company analysis on stock3:
stock3: Direct Beneficiaries of the Iran War — Analyst Names These Companies

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As the Iran conflict enters its second week with no ceasefire in sight, all eyes next week turn to Wednesday’s US CPI data, which will tell us whether war-driven oil prices are already feeding into American inflation, and consequently, how the Federal Reserve responds.

For India, the RBI finds itself in a difficult spot: oil assumed at $70 per barrel in its last policy review is now trading above $80, potentially forcing an uncomfortable revision to India’s inflation and growth forecasts. Every passing day of conflict reshapes the economic math quietly and next week’s data will begin putting numbers to that reality

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#22 - WK09

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 05:00:54 GMT

If the world felt unusually restless this week, that’s because it was. From diplomatic corridors in Beijing to war-torn skies over Tehran, this week delivered a cascade of events that reminded us how quickly the geopolitical chessboard can shift.

Let’s start closer to home. Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz made one of his first major foreign policy moves by travelling to Beijing for talks with Chinese leadership. The symbolism was deliberate, Europe’s largest economy signalling that despite transatlantic tensions with Washington, it intends to maintain its own independent relationship with China. For German industry, which has billions of euros tied up in Chinese supply chains and markets, Merz’s trip was less about geopolitics and more about pragmatism: Germany needs trading partners, and China, complicated as it is, remains one of its largest. How these conversations evolve will have direct implications for German exports, DAX-listed companies with China exposure, and ultimately the broader European economic outlook.

Back in Germany itself, daily life was disrupted this week as public transport workers launched another strike, bringing buses, trams, and regional trains to a standstill in major cities. For the millions of commuters who depend on Germany’s public transport network, it was a frustrating reminder that wage negotiations between unions and transport operators remain far from resolved. For the broader German economy already navigating sluggish growth, recurring strikes add friction at precisely the wrong moment.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Israel, a visit carrying enormous diplomatic weight. India has historically maintained carefully balanced relationships in the Middle East, and Modi’s presence in Tel Aviv signals both solidarity with an old strategic partner and a desire to keep diplomatic channels open during one of the region’s most volatile periods in decades. India imports significant quantities of oil from the region and has hundreds of thousands of workers employed across Gulf states. Any escalation affects India directly, and Modi’s visit was as much about protecting India’s interests as it was about diplomacy.

And then came the development that overshadowed everything else: the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. Details remained fluid as this newsletter went to press, but the implications are already reverberating through global markets. Oil prices spiked. Safe-haven assets moved. The Gulf region, which accounts for a significant portion of India’s oil imports and employs millions of Indian workers, is once again at the center of a crisis that no one can fully predict.

In this week’s opportunity section, we cover why global India funds offer NRIs in Germany a smarter way to access India’s growth story.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market experienced a modest bearish trend this week, with the Sensex closing at 81,287.19, down 1.84% from the previous week’s 82,814.71. Sector performance was mixed, with power and select financial stocks maintaining relative strength, while IT and export-oriented sectors faced profit-taking pressures. RBI’s dovish stance along with steady PMI readings supported sentiment, but cautious FII flows and subdued GST collections indicated tempered domestic demand. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and corporate earnings for directional cues next week.

The German stock market (DAX) showed marginal gains this week, closing at 25,284.26 points, just 0.09% above last week’s close of 25,260.69. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) disruptions, which have led to significant sell-offs in US technology stocks, notably the Nasdaq. However, the DAX exhibited relative stability in comparison. Market participants closely monitored geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, with the potential for military action spooking markets temporarily.

Germany News Roundup

Merz’s Visit to Reaffirm Germany-China Cooperation, aims to boost bilateral economic ties, deepen political dialogue, and promote pragmatic cooperation amidst global uncertainties and EU’s cautious stance on China. - China Daily
Germany’s Major Push for One-Way Attack Drones, includes contracts worth billions for domestic makers to supply advanced kamikaze drones, signaling a shift in military strategy and adaptation to modern warfare realities. - Defense News
Amazon Faces Major Ordering Disruption, impacting users in Germany and the UK, causing technical errors and preventing order placements across platforms worldwide. - Merkur
Ikea to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Germany, affecting nearly 280 staff at Rostock call center in response to automation and retail changes, sparking criticism over needed social protections. - t-online
Bosch to Cut 22,000 Jobs in Germany, aims to secure competitiveness and adapt to the changing auto industry with voluntary job cuts, impacting mobility sector until 2025 and beyond. - Heise
Germany Plans to End Small Solar Installation Subsidies, halting fixed feed-in tariffs and mandating direct marketing for new solar systems up to 25 kW, risking reduced citizen adoption of renewable energy solutions. - Tagesspiegel
German Job Market Still Faces Over 3 Million Unemployed, with minimal decline in unemployment and high demand for social benefits signaling ongoing economic challenges in early 2026. - BILD

India News Roundup

India-Israel Strengthen Trade and Defence Ties, with agreements enhancing collaboration in defence technology, AI, cybersecurity, and increasing Indian workforce in Israel despite Gaza conflict tensions. - Al Jazeera
India Signs Critical Minerals Deal with Brazil, to reduce Chinese dependency by boosting supply chain resilience and expanding trade, particularly in rare earths vital for technology and renewable energy sectors. - Aljazeera
AI Pressures Indian IT Stocks Sharply, prompting significant market decline despite strategic partnerships and growth opportunities in AI technology adoption by major companies like TCS and Infosys. - CNBC
India Unveils Comprehensive PRAHAAR Counter-Terror Policy, establishing a unified intelligence-led framework addressing hybrid threats, digital radicalization, and international cooperation to strengthen national security and preempt terror attacks effectively. - ORF Online
Indian Startup Layoffs Surpass 4,500 in Eight Months, reflecting significant business pressures affecting the sector's employment landscape amid economic challenges. - People Matters
Bombardier Sees Growth in India's Business Jet Sector, India's aviation infrastructure upgrades present a significant opportunity for Bombardier to expand its business jet sales in the long term, says CEO Eric Martel. - The Hindu Business Line
India-Germany Collaborate on AI Veterinary Care, advancing diagnostic accuracy and student exchanges through a strategic partnership fostering veterinary innovation and research from 2026 to 2030. - Times of India
Germany's INDEX Opens Bengaluru Tech Centre, to enhance manufacturing solutions and customer support, tapping into India's growing industrial demand with CNC machine showcases and consulting services. - Deccan Herald

Opportunity
The Global Indian Funds

India’s growth story is genuinely compelling. GDP growing at 8.2% annually, Morgan Stanley comparing India’s current trajectory to the United States of the 1980s, corporate earnings rising, and $270 billion in fresh AI investment commitments just this week. You already know this story better than most global investors, you’ve lived it. But as someone earning Euros in Germany, how you invest in India matters as much as whether you invest.

Here’s what most people overlook. If you invest directly in Indian markets through an NRE/NRO account in INR, you carry a hidden currency risk. EUR/INR moved from approximately 90 to 107 over the past year, nearly 19% Euro appreciation. A healthy 15% Sensex return during the same period would have delivered a net loss in Euro terms after currency conversion. Your Indian portfolio grew, but your actual purchasing power in Germany shrank. This is the structural challenge every NRI faces with direct INR-denominated investments.

Global India ETFs and funds solve this elegantly. Your investment stays denominated in Euros. The fund internally tracks Indian stocks, capturing India’s growth but when the Rupee depreciates against the Euro, the fund price adjusts accordingly, protecting your purchasing power in Germany. You get the best of both worlds: exposure to one of the world’s fastest-growing equity markets, with the currency stability of a Euro-denominated product. For NRIs managing finances across two countries, this isn’t just convenient, it’s genuinely smarter portfolio construction. Over 4,800 listed Indian companies, including roughly 600 with market caps above $1 billion, are accessible through these funds without a single currency conversion headache.

Read DAS Investment’s full ranking of the best-performing India funds over five years here:
DAS Investment: The Best India Funds 2026

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

This week the world moved fast, perhaps too fast to fully digest. But markets have a way of catching up with reality, and next week will likely be about exactly that: digestion. In India, all eyes will be on the RBI's monetary policy response to the Iran escalation and its impact on oil import costs, a spike in crude prices is effectively a tax on the Indian economy, and the central bank cannot ignore it.

In Germany, wage negotiation deadlines loom for transport workers, and Merz returns from Beijing with either a trade framework or empty hands, either outcome moves markets differently. And somewhere in the background, the EU-India free trade agreement implementation begins its first formal review cycle, quietly laying the foundation for a trading relationship that could define the next decade far more than any single week's headlines.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#21 - WK08

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 05:00:44 GMT

There’s a certain irony that wasn’t lost on me this week. While Wall Street analysts were still writing post-mortems on last week’s AI selloff, questioning whether the hundreds of billions being poured into artificial intelligence would ever generate returns while New Delhi was hosting 3,250 speakers, five lakh visitors, and the CEOs of the world’s most powerful technology companies, collectively committing $270 billion to build AI infrastructure on Indian soil.

The India AI Impact Summit 2026 was arguably the most significant technology event ever hosted on Indian soil. Sam Altman called India his second-largest and fastest-growing market. Sundar Pichai announced a $15 billion Google AI hub. And 88 countries signed the New Delhi Declaration, making India the first developing nation to chair a global AI governance framework.

In this week’s newsletter, we cover India’s landmark AI summit and what it means for Indian equity markets, the beauty industry’s surprisingly resilient investment case, market updates from both India and Germany, and keep you informed on the developments that matter.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market exhibited marginal gains this week, with the Sensex closing at 82,814.71, up 0.23% from the previous week’s 82,626.76. Market breadth remained mixed amid cautious investor sentiment, supported by steady domestic demand and positive earnings in the power and financial sectors. However, IT stocks showed moderate consolidation.

The German stock market, as measured by the DAX, closed the week at 25,260.69 points, marking a moderate weekly gain of approximately 1.39% from the previous close of 24,914.88. The market saw initial calmness early in the week but faced renewed investor caution from Thursday onwards, mainly driven by concerns over the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Large technology stocks were notably impacted, reflecting investor scrutiny of tech giants’ profitability amid soaring AI-related investments and widening discrepancies between reported earnings and free cash flow.

Germany News Roundup

Germany Inflation Climbs 2.1% in January, with food and services driving price rises despite falling energy costs, indicating stronger price pressures at the start of 2026. - DW
Renault Earns More Per Car Than Volkswagen, outperforming major competitors with a 6.3% operating margin despite industry challenges and high losses from Nissan stake revaluation. - Handelsblatt
New MVG Strike Expected in Munich, Verdi plans a strike in Munich’s public transport within two weeks, demanding higher wages and reduced hours, causing concern over potential service disruptions and fare increases. - tz
Chancellor Merz Advocates Real Name Policy Online, aiming to end internet anonymity to protect liberal society and counteract harmful algorithmic influences and threats to democracy, while SPD opposes this measure. - Tagesschau
Massive Job Cuts Threaten Deutsche Bahn IT Subsidiary, with plans to cut up to 4000 jobs by 2029 amid proposed decentralization and concerns over cybersecurity risks from Deutsche Bahn’s IT service unit DB Systel. - heise.de
Raising Retirement Age to 70 Under Discussion, potentially affecting those born from 1970 onwards with financial and policy implications amid debates on early retirement penalties and contribution adjustments. - Merkur
Plato Raises $14.5M Seed Funding, to enhance its AI-powered platform for wholesale distributors, focusing on customer service, procurement, and international growth opportunities. - The SaaS News
Munich Re’s Ergo Plans Major Job Cuts, to reduce approximately 1,000 positions in Germany, citing increased artificial intelligence use in its operations. - Intelligent Insurer
Germany’s DB Cargo Plans Major Job Cuts, aiming to cut 6,000 jobs as part of efforts to restore profitability in a challenging market environment. - Global Banking & Finance Review
Berlin-Hamburg Railway Renovation Delays Persist, with severe winter weather and underground cabling issues pushing completion beyond the original April deadline, affecting thousands of daily passengers and extending train journeys. - Yahoo News

India News Roundup

Modi's Vision: Top 3 AI Superpower by 2047, aims for India to lead globally in AI creation, impacting healthcare, education, governance, and empowering citizens with inclusive, human-centric technology and strong safety regulations. - PMIndia
Lufthansa Group Expands Partnership with Air India, to enhance market access, increase connections, and jointly market flights, strengthening ties between India and the EU's aviation sectors. - Lufthansa Group Newsroom
India-France Elevate Partnership With 21 Agreements, covering defence upgrades, joint technology initiatives, critical minerals cooperation, innovation networks, and renewable energy collaboration through strategic dialogues and centres of excellence. - Newsonair
India Considers Age Restrictions on Social Media, continuing discussions with companies to regulate access for minors amid growing global adoption and concerns over digital content and safety. - CNBC
India Joins US-Led Pax Silica Coalition, partnering with major economies to secure resilient electronics and critical minerals supply chains against geopolitical risks and economic coercion. - The Hindu
EAM Jaishankar Meets G-4 Counterparts in Germany, to discuss reformed multilateralism during their first meeting at Munich Security Conference 2026, highlighting cooperation between India, Germany, Japan, and Brazil. - News On AIR
Sarvam Launches Two Advanced AI Language Models, optimised for real-time efficiency and complex reasoning to support enterprise applications like coding assistance and analytics while reducing inference costs. - The Economic Times

AI Impact Summit - India

New Delhi was the center of the global technology universe this week. Not Silicon Valley. Not Beijing. Not London. New Delhi.

From February 16-21, Bharat Mandapam hosted the India AI Impact Summit 2026—the fourth in a series of landmark global AI summits following previous editions in the UK, South Korea, and France. But this one was different. For the first time in the history of these global gatherings, the host country was from the Global South and it arrived not as a student seeking guidance, but as a confident host setting the agenda.

Over five lakh visitors attended, with 3,250 speakers across 500+ sessions. The who’s who of global technology was present: OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s leadership, AMD, Blackstone.

The numbers that emerged were jaw-dropping. Total AI infrastructure investment commitments crossed $270 billion. Out of this, $250 billion was pledged for AI infrastructure alone data centers, compute capacity, semiconductor facilities, and energy systems. Another $20 billion came in venture capital and deep-tech investments.

To put that in context: India’s entire Union Budget for 2026-27 is approximately ₹50 lakh crore (roughly $580 billion). The AI summit generated investment pledges worth nearly half the national budget in just five days.

The individual corporate announcements were equally significant:

OpenAI launched “OpenAI for India” committed to building data center infrastructure in partnership with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to run its most advanced models securely within India
Google announced a $15 billion full-stack AI hub in India, calling it one of its most significant global investments
Microsoft confirmed it is on pace to invest $50 billion in AI across the Global South by the end of the decade, with India as the primary destination
AMD declared collaboration with Tata Group for AI capabilities
Blackstone joined a $600 million equity funding round for Indian AI infrastructure firm Neysa

Sam Altman, who met PM Modi personally, said it best: “India is already our second-largest market, growing incredibly fast. The energy here, the excitement of builders with AI in India for the entire stack is amazing to see”. Coming from the CEO of the world’s most valuable AI company, that’s not diplomatic courtesy that’s a genuine business assessment.

The summit concluded with the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration on AI Impact, endorsed by 88 countries and international organizations. Structured around seven pillars from democratizing AI resources to secure and trusted AI, the declaration positions India as the defining voice for how AI should be governed and deployed in the developing world.

PM Modi framed India’s vision around three core principles and seven focus areas (”Sutras” and “Chakras”), emphasizing that AI must be human-centric, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable. India also unveiled 12 indigenous foundation models under the IndiaAI Mission, trained on Indian datasets and supporting all 22 official languages—demonstrating that India isn’t just attracting foreign AI, it’s building its own.

Opportunity
The Business of Looking Beautiful

Here’s an industry that doesn’t care about recessions, trade wars, or AI selloffs: the global beauty and medical aesthetics market. People spent $38 billion on medical aesthetics alone in 2024, treatments like Botox, hyaluronic fillers, and non-invasive skin procedures and analysts expect this market to grow at around 10% every year until 2035. To put that in perspective, it took from 2020 to 2024 for the number of people getting cosmetic procedures worldwide to jump from 25 million to 38 million annually. That’s not a trend, that’s a structural shift.

Three forces are driving this growth simultaneously. First, aging populations in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, people are living longer and increasingly willing to spend on looking younger. Second, rising middle-class incomes in Asia, particularly China, where beauty treatments are becoming mainstream rather than luxury. Third, and this is particularly interesting: social media. Nearly one in four patients under 30 say Instagram and TikTok directly influenced their decision to get a cosmetic treatment. The share of Botox treatments among under-30s jumped from 7.1% in 2024 to 8.8% in just one year. GenZ is becoming the beauty industry’s fastest-growing customer segment.

Interestingly, experts describe a phenomenon called the “Lipstick Effect”, even during economic hardships, people keep spending on small beauty indulgences. Lipstick sales rose during America’s Great Depression in the 1930s. This makes beauty stocks somewhat recession-resistant, which is a rare quality in today’s volatile markets. For retail investors wanting exposure to this theme without picking individual stocks, ETF options exist that bundle this opportunity across multiple companies.

Read the full analysis with specific ETF recommendations here:
DAS Investment: ETFs that invest in Beauty Stocks

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

This Friday, February 27th, India will release its brand new GDP series with base year 2022-23. This isn’t a routine quarterly update. It’s a complete statistical overhaul incorporating GST transaction data, UPI payment flows, E-Vahan portal data, and more modern data sources that better capture India’s digitally transformed economy.

On the European side, Wednesday, February 25th brings Germany’s Q4 2025 GDP figures alongside Eurozone inflation data for January. Markets expect modest German quarterly growth of around 0.3%, small, but meaningful for an economy that contracted in 2024. The same day, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak, potentially offering clues about the pace of future interest rate decisions. For EUR/INR watchers, her tone matters.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#20 - WK07

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 05:01:44 GMT

If you thought last week’s budget drama was confusing, this week showed us that nothing in financial markets makes sense when panic takes over.

It started quietly enough. On Monday, February 9th, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 exploded upward by 5%, hitting an all-time high above 57,000 after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in parliamentary elections, Japan’s largest election win since World War II. Investors celebrated the decisive mandate, betting that Takaichi’s growth-oriented policies and strategic industry investments would finally revive Japan’s economy.

But while Tokyo celebrated, Wall Street was having an identity crisis.

For the past two years, anything remotely connected to artificial intelligence was Wall Street’s favorite trade. Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, if you had “AI” in your investor presentation, money poured in. But this week, that narrative collapsed spectacularly. The Nasdaq tumbled 2% on Thursday alone as investors suddenly questioned whether the $527 billion that tech giants are expected to spend on AI infrastructure in 2026 will ever generate returns.

By Monday, another bombshell: Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators had quietly urged banks to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, citing concentration risk and market volatility. While officials framed it as risk management rather than geopolitical posturing, the timing was uncomfortable. Chinese banks collectively held about $298 billion in dollar-denominated bonds, and the message was clear: diversify away from America.

Amid all this chaos, two quieter stories unfolded in India. On February 13th, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Seva Teerth, a new government complex in Delhi symbolizing what he called “transformation from a mindset of power into a spirit of service”. From his new office, Modi approved four major schemes covering women, agriculture, accident care, and startups—signals that despite global volatility, India’s domestic policy focus remains steady.

And in Nuremberg, Germany, India was conferred the prestigious title “Country of the Year” at BIOFACH 2026, the world’s largest trade fair for organic products. This isn’t just ceremonial recognition; it positions India as a global leader in organic agriculture and opens doors for exporters of organic rice, spices, pulses, cashews, turmeric, and essential oils to European markets.

In this week’s opportunity section, we've covered Morningstar's top 10 blue-chip stocks trading at significant discounts, quality companies that provide exactly the kind of stability investors need when everything else is falling apart.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market ended the week with a modest bearish tone, as the Sensex declined by approximately 1.14% to close at 82,626.76 from last week’s 83,580.40. The market saw mixed sector performance, with financials and IT showing resilience while power stocks lagged amid profit booking. RBI’s continued calibrated policy stance and easing inflation supported risk sentiment, though subdued GST data and cautious foreign institutional investor flows weighed on momentum. Investors will closely watch upcoming inflation and corporate earnings updates for directional cues next week.

The German stock market showed a modest gain this week, closing at 24,914.88 points, up 0.78% from last week’s 24,721.46. Investor sentiment was influenced by sharp declines in precious metals; gold and silver experienced significant price drops amid speculative trading and industrial demand dynamics. Technology stocks came under pressure due to hefty investments in artificial intelligence by major players such as Alphabet and Amazon, dampening sector performance despite strong underlying business.

Germany News Roundup

Europe’s Ariane 64 Rocket Launches Internet Satellites, marking its first commercial mission by carrying 32 Amazon Leo satellites, doubling payload capacity compared to previous versions. - Space.com
Europe Must Review Carbon Market Policies, with German Chancellor Merz urging openness to revise or postpone EU emissions system if it fails to support industrial green transition and competitiveness. - GMK Center
Sweden Resists Macron’s ‘Buy European’ Push, arguing that protecting European companies from international competition may harm EU’s economic competitiveness despite calls for self-reliance amid transatlantic tensions. - Politico
Elster App Enables One-Click Tax Filing, starting July 2026, single, childless employees and pensioners can file tax returns via the Elster app with one click, based on pre-filled official tax data to simplify submission. - Stadt Bremerhaven
Commerzbank Embraces European Payment App Wero, rejoining the initiative to offer its 10 million customers access to Wero’s mobile and online payment services across Europe, starting discussions for rollout timing. - marketscreener
SAP Launches Defense Innovation Hub in Munich, to boost digital military readiness through AI, data analytics, and strategic partnerships enhancing resilience and operational agility amid rising cyber threats. - SSBCrack News
Mercedes Profits Plunge Over 50% in 2025, hit by weak China sales, global tariffs, and EV transition challenges, with hopes pinned on cost cuts and new products for 2026 recovery. - Euronews
Toyota Outsells VW in China’s BEV Market, selling 100,000 battery-electric cars in China in 2025, surpassing VW’s 85,000 despite VW’s stronger global EV focus and market share in China. - electrive.com
BYD and MG Expand Dealer Networks in Germany, aiming to reach more private customers by offering bonuses and incentives, with BYD targeting to double its registrations by 2026. - Table.Media
Tesla Files Complaint Over Union Recording Incident, after IG Metall representative secretly recorded an internal meeting at its Berlin factory, escalating tensions amid declining German sales and unionization efforts. - eletric-vehicles.com
Frankfurt Challenges Protest Ban at Imam-Ali Mosque, after a court ruled the ban invalid, citing the protesters’ rights under assembly freedom despite city concerns over traffic disruptions. - hessenschau.de

India News Roundup

PM Modi Unveils Seva Teerth in Delhi, consolidating key government offices into modern complexes to enhance citizen-centric governance, security, and efficiency across ministries. - Illustrated Daily News
India Introduces One Central Registration for Employers, streamlining compliance by replacing multiple registrations with a unified digital system valid across states, reducing paperwork and costs while maintaining worker protections by April 2026. - India Briefing
Gujarat CM Launches ‘Amul AI’ Initiative, bringing AI technology to revolutionize India’s largest dairy cooperative, enhancing efficiency from milk collection to farmer payments across 18,500 villages and 36 lakh producers. - Illustrated Daily News
India-Malaysia Expand Trade and Defence Partnership, including semiconductors, healthcare, food security, local currency trade, and defence with aims to boost bilateral trade beyond $18.6bn and deepen collaboration. - Al Jazeera
India Mandates Three-Hour Social Media Takedown, compelling platforms like Meta, YouTube, and X to act swiftly on unlawful and AI-generated content, raising concerns of automation-led censorship and feasibility challenges. - BBC
India: Indispensable Partner for Europe, Greek Defence Minister highlights India's crucial role for Europe and supports the EU-India Free Trade Agreement to enhance strategic and economic ties. - Newsonair
India Approves $40 Billion Rafale Jet Purchase, marking a major defense upgrade with 114 jets amid growing military needs, coinciding with President Macron's upcoming India visit to boost bilateral ties. - CNBC
Rolls-Royce to Expand Operations in India, focusing on defence, civil aviation, and energy with potential for technology transfer, job creation, and increased local manufacturing partnerships. - New Indian Express
India Climbs 79 Ranks in Ease of Doing Business, reflecting major reforms and digitalization efforts that streamlined regulations and reduced compliance burdens over five years under the Business Reforms Action Plan. - SarkariTel
Angela Merkel to Give First Manmohan Memorial Lecture, focusing on India-Germany relations during global changes, honoring former PM Manmohan Singh's legacy in economic reforms and cooperation. - The Hindu

Opportunity
10 Best Blue-Chips Stocks - Morning Star

While markets obsess over AI hype and defense contractors, some of the world’s highest-quality companies are quietly trading at significant discounts. Morningstar just released their list of the 10 best blue chip stocks to buy for the long term as of January 27, 2026, all trading at least 12% below calculated fair value.

What Are Blue Chip Stocks?

Think of blue chip stocks as the reliable, proven companies that form the backbone of any solid investment portfolio. The term comes from poker, where blue chips have the highest value. In investing, these are large, financially strong companies with decades of track record, the household names you recognize immediately.

What Makes These Special?

Wide economic moats: Competitive advantages competitors can’t easily replicate
Predictable cash flows: Revenue you can forecast years in advance
Smart management teams: Leaders with proven capital allocation track records
Market caps above $100 billion: Established, financially stable giants

The Top 10 Undervalued Blue Chips

Here’s the complete list with their discount levels:

Sony Group (SONY) - Trading 30% below fair value at $22.75 vs. $32.50 fair value
SAP (SAP) - 25% discount, diversified enterprise software leader
Intuit (INTU) - 24% discount, dominates small business accounting and tax software
TSMC (TSM) - 21% undervalued, world’s largest chip foundry with 70% market share
Microsoft (MSFT) - 20% discount, cloud computing and AI leader worth $3.6 trillion
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) - 16% undervalued, pharmaceutical giant with 4.54% dividend yield
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - 14% discount, payroll and HR software leader
Nestlé (NSRGY) - 13% undervalued, world’s largest food manufacturer with 3.86% dividend
Danaher (DHR) - 13% discount, life sciences and diagnostics equipment maker
GSK (GSK) - 12% undervalued, major pharmaceutical and vaccine company with 3.36% dividend

Read the full analysis with detailed company breakdowns, analyst commentary, and investment theses here:
Morningstar: 10 Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for the Long Term

Not Get-Rich-Quick Schemes

Let me be clear: these won’t 10x in two years. Microsoft isn’t going from $3.6 trillion to $36 trillion. But that’s not the point. Blue chips survive recessions, pay dividends through crashes, compound steadily at 8-12% annually over decades, and will still be around when you retire.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As we close, one lesson stands out: when fear takes over, everything falls together. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, stocks, traditional diversification failed because panic doesn’t discriminate.

But here’s the truth: the best investments are made when everyone else is running for the exits. AI spending concerns will pass. Markets will stabilize. Quality companies will survive and thrive.

This week reminded us why we focus on blue-chip stocks, why diversification across geographies matters, and why patience beats panic every single time. The noise is loud now, but fundamentals ultimately prevail.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#19 - WK06

Sun, 08 Feb 2026 05:00:59 GMT

This week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stood up in Parliament on February 1st to present India’s Union Budget 2026-27. For those of us following the markets, what happened next was like watching a thriller unfold in real-time.

As she began reading the budget speech around 11 AM, the Sensex was trading comfortably above 82,000 points. Investors were hoping for tax relief, clarity on capital gains, and pro-growth measures. But as the speech progressed, or more accurately, as traders realized what wasn’t in the speech, the market started sliding. No income tax cuts. Higher STT on derivatives. More infrastructure spending but nothing dramatic for middle-class taxpayers.

By the time the Finance Minister finished, the Sensex had shed nearly 1,000 points in a matter of hours. The immediate disappointment was palpable. But here’s where it gets interesting: over the next few days, cooler heads prevailed. Investors started digesting the actual content, ₹12.2 lakh crore for infrastructure, doubled NRI investment limits, simplified compliance, and a one-time window to regularize foreign assets. The market began recovering, and by week’s end, we closed at 83,580, actually up 1.59% for the week.

Then came Tuesday, February 2nd. President Trump announced a trade deal with India, and the initial headlines sounded promising: tariffs on Indian goods would be cut from a punitive 50% down to 18%. The market’s first reaction was euphoric, finally relief from the trade war that had been dragging down sentiment since August 2025.

But as details emerged, the euphoria turned cautious. Yes, the 18% tariff is better than 50%, but it’s still substantially higher than the pre-2025 baseline of around 10%. And the concessions India made weren’t trivial: halting Russian oil purchases, committing to buy more American energy and agricultural products, and gradually reducing our own tariffs toward zero. For a country that had been getting discounted crude from Russia, this means potentially higher energy costs down the line.

Some sectors, particularly gems and diamonds, pharmaceuticals, and select agricultural products secured zero-tariff access to the US market, which is genuinely positive. But for textiles, leather, footwear, and chemicals, the 18% tariff remains a significant hurdle. The Sensex reflected this mixed reality: a brief spike on the announcement, followed by consolidation as investors calculated the real impact on corporate margins.

In this week’s newsletter, we’ll break down the budget in plain language, explore why Indian markets bounced back despite the initial selloff, and continue our deep dive into Ukraine’s defense sector reconstruction, an opportunity that’s just beginning to unfold for European investors.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Sensex bounced back nicely this week, climbing from 82,269.78 on January 30 to 83,580.40 by February 6, a gain of about 1.59%. This recovery was much needed after January turned out to be the worst month since last year, with the index falling roughly 3% during the month. The weekly uptick signals that investor sentiment is improving, though markets remain cautious after heavy foreign institutional investor selling in January.

Germany’s DAX index also had a positive week, rising from around 24,538.81 on January 30 to 24,721.46 by February 6, a weekly gain of approximately 0.74%. The index closed Friday with gains led by companies like Siemens Energy and HeidelbergCement. Despite this weekly improvement, the DAX has been undedr pressure recently, declining about 1.60% over the past month, though it’s still sitting comfortably with a 13.76% gain compared to last year.

The Euro weakened against the Rupee this week, dropping from 109.58 on January 30 to 106.98 by February 6, that’s about a 1.55% decline. However, looking at the bigger picture, the Euro has still strengthened significantly, up nearly 19% compared to a year ago.

Germany News Roundup

Telekom’s Underground AI Data Center Unveiled, is a modernized, high-security facility in Munich’s Tucherpark offering industrial AI cloud services powered by Nvidia GPUs, with a focus on data sovereignty and German industry needs. - teltarif.de
Rheinmetall Shares Drop 9%, BaFin Investigates, following a weak 2026 sales outlook, while CEO and insiders buy shares amid analyst downgrades and moderate target cuts. - wallstreetONLINE
ADAC Warns on Rising Car Navigation Subscription Costs, car owners face unexpected annual fees up to 329 euros as manufacturers push costly digital service subscriptions after initial free periods expire. - FR.de
Siemens Wins €3 Billion Driverless Train Deal, to supply and maintain 226 automated trains for Copenhagen’s S-Bahn, enhancing capacity and frequency with driverless technology by 2040. - BR24
German ID Cards Now Cost More, prices for new ID cards increased due to higher manufacturing and personnel costs, with adults paying 46 euros and younger applicants 27.60 euros. - Spiegel
Major Rail Line Closures in NRW and Bavaria, impact commuters with up to five months of full closures for extensive modernisations, bus replacements, and diverted long-distance trains until July 10, 2026. - Tagesschau
Merz Government Proposes 48-Hour Workweek, facing strong public opposition due to concerns over work-life balance, health, and skepticism about meeting personal and family needs under extended hours. - come-on.de
Turkish Conductor Killed by Ticketless Passenger, after a violent attack on a German train, prompting calls for stronger safety measures for railway staff amid rising workplace violence concerns. - Daily Sabah

India News Roundup

SEBI Launches Saarthi 2.0 Mobile App, offering young investors unbiased, objective tools and resources to enhance their investment decisions and financial knowledge efficiently. - Upstox
Bharat Taxi Launches Driver-Centric Cooperative Service, offering Rs 10 lakh insurance, retirement benefits, and cheaper rides to challenge Ola and Uber in India’s ride-hailing market. - DynamiteNews
Can India Shift from Russian to Venezuelan Oil? India faces logistical, cost, and refining challenges in replacing Russian oil imports with Venezuelan crude despite US pressure and trade incentives from Trump. - Al Jazeera
Deadly Blast Hits Illegal Indian Coal Mine, killing 18 with others feared trapped as authorities investigate the explosion and rescue efforts continue under hazardous conditions. - Al Jazeera
Adani and Leonardo Partner to Build Indian Helicopter Ecosystem, to develop indigenous manufacturing, sustainment, and training infrastructure, boosting India’s defense self-reliance and positioning it as a global helicopter production hub. - Leonardo
India-Germany Collaborate on Rare Earths for Wind Energy, strengthening supply chain resilience by jointly developing rare earth magnets critical for renewable energy, reducing dependency on China amid growing offshore wind ambitions. - The Hindu
India-Netherlands Boost Green Hydrogen Collaboration, with a new fellowship program and MoU enhancing academic ties to accelerate hydrogen tech research, capacity building, and deployment for clean energy goals. - Department Of Science & Technology
Germany’s Opportunity Card Poses Migration Risks, many skilled Indians face job market challenges and low-wage work despite eligibility for the new visa, risking financial strain and unstable residency in Germany. - The News Minute

India Budget 2026: Key Highlights

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2026-27 on February 1, focusing on long-term economic growth, infrastructure development, and simplifying compliance for taxpayers. Here’s what matters most for you and our readers.

Infrastructure & Economic Focus

Public infrastructure spending increased to ₹12.2 lakh crore for FY 2026-27, continuing the government’s push to build capacity
Development of seven High-Speed Rail corridors to improve connectivity between major cities
Defence budget allocation raised to ₹7.85 lakh crore due to global tensions
Focus on Tier II and Tier III cities with populations above 5 lakh as new growth centers
₹10,000 crore SME Growth Fund launched to create Champion SMEs and support growing enterprises

Tax & Compliance Changes

For Individual Taxpayers

Revised return filing deadline extended from December 31 to March 31 (with nominal fee)
ITR filing deadline for non-audit business taxpayers extended to August 31
Securities Transaction Tax (STT) increased on futures (from 0.02% to 0.05%) and options (premium from 0.10% to 0.15%)
No changes to income tax slabs or rates

NRI-Specific Benefits

Investment Opportunities

Individual NRI equity investment limit doubled from 5% to 10% per listed company
Overall aggregate limit for all NRIs increased from 10% to 24%

Property Transactions Made Simple

TDS on NRI property sales can now be paid using buyer’s PAN instead of requiring a separate TAN, eliminating 2-4 weeks of waiting time

Money Transfers

TCS on education remittances reduced from 5% to 2%
TCS on medical remittances reduced from 5% to 2%
TCS on overseas tour packages reduced from 5%/20% to flat 2%

Foreign Asset Disclosure Scheme

A one-time six-month window to regularize undisclosed foreign assets

Category A (Undisclosed income/assets up to ₹1 crore):

Pay 30% tax plus 30% penalty (total 60%)
Get complete immunity from prosecution

Category B (Income disclosed but asset not reported, up to ₹5 crore):

Pay flat fee of ₹1 lakh
Get immunity from penalty and prosecution

Compliance Relief

Small foreign assets (under ₹20 lakh non-immovable) get immunity from prosecution, effective retrospectively from October 1, 2024
Pre-payment requirement for tax appeals reduced from 20% to 10%
Many technical defaults converted from penalties to fees, reducing fear of criminal prosecution

Investment Perspective

The budget shows clear intent to attract foreign capital and make compliance easier rather than punitive. For NRIs, the doubled equity investment limits and simplified procedures signal that India sees its diaspora as partners in development, not just sources of remittances.

The infrastructure push, particularly in Tier II/III cities and high-speed rail, creates long-term investment opportunities in sectors like real estate, logistics, and construction. The SME Growth Fund also indicates potential in mid-cap companies that could become tomorrow’s champions.

However, increased STT on derivatives means active traders need to factor in higher transaction costs . For long-term investors, this is less of a concern.

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction - Part 6
Defence Sector

While Rheinmetall and Hensoldt are the most direct German plays, the Ukraine reconstruction story extends across European defense companies and offers accessible options through ETFs for retail investors who want diversified exposure.

Why Peace Doesn’t Mean Less Defense Spending

Here’s the counterintuitive part: a peace deal might actually accelerate defense investment rather than reduce it. Defense analysts at Morningstar and Granville describe the recent selloff in defense stocks after peace deal rumors as “overdone” and a “buying opportunity”.

The reasons are structural:

Replenishment Needs: Countries like Germany that supplied weapons to Ukraine will need a decade or more just to restore their own inventories[cnbc]
NATO Spending Commitments: The increase to 2%+ of GDP for defense spending is locked in and won’t reverse regardless of peace[cnbc]
Long-term Ukraine Support: Even with peace, Ukraine will need years of military modernization, training, and equipment upgrades to NATO standards[janushenderson]
Strategic Autonomy: Europe recognizes it can no longer rely solely on U.S. protection, creating a permanent shift in defense priorities[cnbc]

As one Hensoldt spokesperson put it: “A halt to hostilities would allow Russia to rebuild its military strength. From a European security standpoint, the fundamental threat persists and could even escalate”.[cnbc]

European Defense Companies Worth Watching

BAE Systems (BA - London Stock Exchange)

The UK’s defense giant ranks among Europe’s top defense contractors with strong ties across European militaries. BAE is heavily involved in ground systems, naval vessels, and aerospace, all areas critical for Ukraine’s long-term defense modernization.

Thales (HO - Euronext Paris)

French defense powerhouse specializing in aerospace, defense, digital identity, and ground transportation. Thales has already supplied Ukraine with air defense systems and signed a joint venture agreement with Ukrainian Defence Industry in February 2025 to manufacture air defense systems, radars, and electronic warfare equipment locally in Ukraine.

Leonardo S.p.A (LDO - Borsa Italiana)

Italy’s leading defense and aerospace company ranks among Europe’s largest defense contractors. Leonardo has expertise in helicopters, electronics, cyber security, and defense systems.

Saab AB (SAAB - Stockholm Stock Exchange)

Swedish defense manufacturer known for fighter aircraft, submarines, and advanced radar systems. Saab’s expertise in ground-based air defense and sophisticated electronics makes it relevant for Ukraine’s long-term defense needs.

Renk AG (R3NK - Frankfurt Stock Exchange)

Recently listed German manufacturer of vehicle transmission systems and propulsion solutions serving over 70 armies worldwide. While smaller than the giants, Renk’s stock has surged approximately 194% in 2025.

Source : Trading View / 1 Year Performance

MTU Aero Engines (MTX - Frankfurt Stock Exchange)

German manufacturer of aircraft engines and components for both civil and military aviation. As Ukraine rebuilds its air force and European militaries modernize, MTU benefits from the aerospace component of defense spending. The company appears in broader aerospace & defense indices.

Safran (SAF - Euronext Paris)

French aerospace and defense group specializing in aircraft engines, landing systems, and defense electronics. Safran’s dual civil-military business model provides diversification while capturing defense spending increases.

Defense ETFs for Retail Investors

If individual stock picking feels too risky or you want diversified exposure, several ETFs target European defense:

WisdomTree Europe Defense ETF (WDEF)

A U.S.-domiciled, Europe-focused defense ETF offering “pure-play exposure” to European defense companies. The fund holds 20 companies with top country exposures in Germany (25%), UK (22%), Italy (16%), France (16%), and Sweden (10%).

VanEck Defense ETF (DFEN)

The largest defense-focused ETF globally with $3.93 billion in assets. While U.S.-heavy, it maintains 32% European exposure including Thales, Leonardo, and Saab. Tracks 28 holdings across defense technology, cybersecurity, and defense services.

The bottom line: Ukraine reconstruction isn’t just about rebuilding what was destroyed, it’s about building a permanent European defense industrial base that didn’t exist at this scale before. That’s a decade-long story, not a one-year trade.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As we close this week’s newsletter, the coming days promise to bring clarity on questions that have been lingering in investors’ minds, particularly around inflation and economic momentum.

In India, all eyes will be on Thursday, February 12th, when the government releases its brand-new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series with 2024 as the base year. This isn’t just another monthly inflation number, it’s a complete recalibration of how India measures price changes, reflecting structural shifts in our economy over the past decade. The new series will provide January 2026 inflation data alongside a back series going all the way to January 2013 for comparison.

One final note: next week's US retail sales data (Tuesday, February 10) and US CPI data (Wednesday, February 11) will set the tone for global risk appetite. If American consumers are still spending and inflation stays contained, it supports the "soft landing" narrative that's been driving markets higher. If either disappoints, expect volatility.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#18 - WK05

Sun, 01 Feb 2026 05:00:37 GMT

History was made in New Delhi this week, at least, that’s what the headlines proclaimed.

On January 27, India and the European Union formalized what they’re calling the “mother of all deals”: a comprehensive free trade agreement creating a market of 2 billion people and representing nearly $27 trillion, roughly a quarter of global GDP. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa attended India’s Republic Day celebrations as chief guests before signing the landmark pact alongside Prime Minister Modi.

This week’s newsletter includes a special deep-dive section examining why this “mother of all deals” might not be enough to offset the economic headwinds both economies face, particularly given Trump’s aggressive trade posture and ongoing global uncertainties.

Meanwhile, West Bengal confirmed two cases of Nipah virus, a deadly pathogen with no cure and fatality rates between 40-75%, making it far more lethal than COVID-19. Both cases were healthcare workers at the same private hospital in Barasat, suggesting possible hospital transmission from an undiagnosed patient.

India’s health ministry declared the situation “contained” after tracing 196 contacts who all tested negative, but the timing highlights a uncomfortable reality: while trade deals dominate headlines, infectious disease threats remain ever-present. Oxford University is conducting phase-two clinical trials of a Nipah vaccine in Bangladesh, but no approved treatment exists yet.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian market had a choppy week with the Sensex swinging between gains and losses. Mid-week saw some recovery with the Sensex climbing to 82,626 on January 29, but profit booking ahead of the Union Budget announcement pulled it back down on Friday. The market sentiment remained cautious as traders were hesitant to take aggressive positions before the Budget announcement expected over the weekend.

The German market also faced volatility this week but managed to end on a positive note. The DAX closed at around 24,539 on Friday, January 30, posting a gain of nearly 0.9% for the day after halting a three-day losing streak. However, looking at the weekly performance, the DAX fell about 1.5% over the week.

The Euro strengthened significantly against the Rupee during this week. Starting the week at 108.40 on January 23, the EUR/INR rate climbed to a peak of 110.26 on January 29 - its highest level in 2026 so far. However, it pulled back sharply on Friday, closing the week at 108.66.

Germany News Roundup

Ver.di Calls Nationwide Public Transport Strike Monday, aiming to pressure employers for improved working conditions including shorter shifts, better pay, and reduced stress for about 100,000 transit workers across Germany. - DIE ZEIT
Consumers to Finance New German Gas Power Plants, rising electricity costs are expected as subsidies fund new gas power plants, with a levy planned for consumers from 2027, amid uncertain pricing and capacity market adjustments. - WELT
Klingbeil Demands Auto Industry Commitment, he urges German automakers to guarantee investments and secure jobs following government concessions on combustion engine phase-out regulations. - DIE ZEIT
VW’s €90M Investment in Auto Recycling, aims to convert its Zwickau plant for vehicle dismantling, recycling raw materials, and scaling circular economy efforts via AI and new business models by 2030. - Resource Recycling
Germany Restarts EV Subsidies with €3.5B Budget, aiming to boost demand by supporting 800,000 EV purchases and benefiting companies like BYD, Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla, and Infineon with flexible incentives through 2029. - The Globe and Mail

India News Roundup

India-EU Free Trade Agreement Boosts Trade and Mobility, links India with the EU's vast market, reduces tariffs on most goods, enhances service and professional mobility, benefiting several sectors but challenging some domestic industries. - Finshots
India Targets 7.2% Economic Growth in 2027, surpassing major economies with strong domestic stability, trade deals, and export diversification despite currency and capital flow challenges. - CNBC
India's Nipah Virus Outbreak Raises Global Alarm, prompting stricter airport screenings across Asia amid concerns of spread during Lunar New Year travel despite limited human transmission and ongoing monitoring by health authorities. - Al Jazeera
Common Man's Budget 2026 Key Expectations, highlight relief on LTCG taxes, better home loan benefits, stronger pension incentives, insurance push, HRA updates, and faster income tax refunds for ordinary Indians. - Upstox

India - EU Free Trade Agreement
Why Markets Yawned at the “Mother of All Deals”

India and the European Union announced the conclusion of their Free Trade Agreement on January 27, calling it a historic breakthrough after 18 years of on-and-off negotiations. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar proudly declared it the “mother of all trade deals,”

The numbers look impressive on paper: tariff elimination on 96.6% of EU goods exports to India and nearly 99% of Indian exports to the EU. Yet, both German and Indian stock markets barely moved. Perhaps they know something we should pay attention to.

The Long Road Ahead

The muted market reaction likely stems from a sobering reality: this deal won’t actually kick in until early 2027 at the earliest. Before a single tariff gets reduced, the agreement needs legal scrubbing, translation into 24 EU languages, ratification by the European Parliament, and approval through India’s domestic legislative processes. That’s 12-15 months of bureaucratic hurdles, and we all know how unpredictable ratification processes can be.

Beyond Tariffs: The Real Barriers

Here’s the bigger issue that markets seem to understand better than the celebratory press releases suggest, tariff cuts alone won’t magically boost trade. Indian exporters of basmati rice, spices, marine products, and pharmaceuticals face strict EU sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards, heightened inspections, and complex certification requirements that function as invisible trade barriers.

The Missing Pieces

The real work begins after signing. India needs to secure “data adequacy” status under EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) to enable seamless digital trade and IT services exports.

Indian IT professionals and skilled workers need easier visa access and mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Current Mode 4 commitments (temporary movement of professionals) remain limited, which is a major disappointment for India’s services sector.

Perhaps the thorniest issue is the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which takes effect in 2026. Unless exemptions are negotiated, Indian exporters of steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizers could see their tariff gains completely negated by carbon taxes.

The Bottom Line

Think of tariff elimination as getting a highway built between two cities – necessary but not sufficient. You still need functioning toll booths, clear signage, compatible vehicle standards, and border checkpoints that work efficiently. That infrastructure takes years to build.

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction - Part 5
Banking and Financial Services

When it comes to rebuilding a war-torn country, you need more than just cement mixers and solar panels, you need massive amounts of capital. This is where German banks and financial institutions could play a starring role in Ukraine’s reconstruction story. (kfw)

Germany has taken the lead in setting up financial infrastructure for Ukraine’s recovery. In July 2025, KfW (Germany’s state development bank) launched a European reconstruction fund that’s expected to mobilize over €1 billion in private capital, which could translate into €7 billion in actual investments on the ground. Think of it as a multiplier effect – for every euro of public money, several more euros of private investment follow. (kfw-entwicklungsbank)

Why This Matters for Banking Sector

Ukraine will need financing across three key areas: project loans for infrastructure, trade finance for imports/exports, and risk insurance to protect investments in a post-war environment. The reconstruction estimate runs into hundreds of billions of euros over the next decade, creating a long-term revenue stream for banks involved in financing these projects. (dragon-capital)

German-Listed Companies to Watch

Major Banks:

Deutsche Bank (DBK) - Germany’s largest bank with established Ukraine operations since 1993, offering corporate banking services and ranked as the #1 cash management bank in Ukraine.
Commerzbank (CBK) - Germany’s second-largest private bank with a representative office in Kyiv, positioned for trade finance and corporate lending.

Source : Trading View / 1 Year Data

Insurance & Reinsurance:

Allianz (ALV) - Europe’s largest insurer, critical for providing political risk and project insurance for reconstruction investments.
Munich Re (MUV2) - World’s leading reinsurer, essential for backstopping war risk and construction insurance that will be mandatory for Ukraine projects.
Hannover Re (HNR1) - Another major German reinsurer that could participate in Ukraine risk pools.

Specialized Banks:

Aareal Bank (ARL) - Specialist in property financing, though it previously had Russia exposure that it wound down. Could be relevant for commercial real estate reconstruction financing.
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBB) - Commercial real estate finance specialist, listed in DAXsector Banks index.

Bottom Line

However, keep the risks in mind – we’re talking about a country still technically at war, with significant political and credit risks. That’s why reinsurance companies like Munich Re and Allianz are equally important; they’re developing specialized war risk insurance products to make these investments viable.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

All eyes now turn to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who will present her record ninth consecutive Union Budget on February 1 at 11:00 AM, marking the first Sunday budget presentation in recent history. With India’s economy forecast to expand 7-7.5%, expectations center on income tax relief, infrastructure spending, and measures to counter global uncertainties including Trump’s tariff threats.

Key sectors watching closely include agriculture (44% of India’s workforce but excluded from the EU-FTA), renewable energy amid the 500 GW target by 2030, and MSMEs seeking easier credit access. The budget arrives at a crucial juncture, balancing domestic growth priorities against external headwinds while implementing the newly-signed India-EU trade agreement.

Next week, we’ll analyze the Budget 2026 announcements, sectoral allocations, and investment implications.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#17 - WK04

Sun, 25 Jan 2026 05:02:12 GMT

Welcome to the week that markets learned a new acronym: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

It started Monday when global investors woke up to find President Trump had sent Norway’s prime minister a message demanding “Complete and Total Control of Greenland” because, get this, he didn’t win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Yes, you read that right. Markets didn’t find it amusing. The S&P 500 plunged 2.1% on Tuesday, its worst day since October. European markets crashed alongside it, with Germany’s DAX down 1%, Britain’s FTSE dropping 0.7%, and volatility spiking to levels not seen since November.

Trump had threatened to impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries, including Denmark, France, Germany, and the UK, starting February 1st, escalating to 25% by June, unless Denmark agreed to sell Greenland. European leaders issued strongly-worded statements. NATO allies boosted their Arctic military presence. Trump doubled down, threatening to use “excessive strength and force” to take the “piece of ice.”

Then came Wednesday in Davos. Trump addressed the World Economic Forum, declaring he wouldn’t use military force after all. Hours later, he announced a vague “framework of a future deal” with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte involving Greenland, calling it “the concept of a deal” in a CNBC interview. Details? Minimal. Something about mineral rights and a Golden Dome missile defense system. Markets didn’t care about specifics, the S&P 500 immediately rallied 1.2%, erasing most of Tuesday’s losses.

The TACO trade was born, or rather, reborn. Investors have now witnessed the pattern: Trump makes extreme threats, markets tank, he backs off with a face-saving “deal,” markets recover. Rinse and repeat.

Meanwhile in Davos, over 60 heads of state gathered under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue” to discuss global cooperation, AI transformation, and climate action. The irony wasn’t lost on anyone when the week’s biggest story became whether the U.S. president would invade a NATO ally’s territory over a prize he didn’t win.

This week’s newsletter explores a more constructive opportunity emerging from recent geopolitical shifts: Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and which sectors, particularly construction and infrastructure, stand to benefit most.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

Sensex took a hit this week, tumbling from roughly 83,570 to close at 81,537 on Friday, a drop of nearly 2.4% over the week. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled money out, and sectors like media and banking saw notable declines, though some recovery attempts were seen in select large caps.

DAX was also under pressure, sliding from around 25,297 last Friday to close near 24,900. While heavyweights like SAP and Siemens Energy performed well, overall sentiment was weighed down by retail and healthcare stocks.

The Euro saw a major jump this week, moving from roughly 105.26 to a high of 108.34 by Friday.

Germany News Roundup

Germany Declines Trump’s Board of Peace Invitation, preferring new, constitutionally acceptable cooperation forms with the US to promote global peace initiatives beyond just the Middle East and Gaza. - DW
Germany Plans to Phase Out DSL by 2035, setting regional cutoffs once 80% have fiber, ensuring fair access, and providing at least one year notice before disconnecting old copper lines. - BR.de
Germany’s Economy Could Grow 1% in 2026, if new U.S. tariffs are avoided, but industrial growth remains fragile requiring reforms to boost competitiveness, reduce bureaucracy, and accelerate permitting processes. - kfgo.com
Germany Reintroduces Electric Vehicle Subsidies, aiming to boost the domestic automotive industry and make environmentally-friendly cars more affordable for families with incomes up to €90,000. - DW
Volkswagen to Open Circular Economy Center, with plans to recycle 15,000 vehicles annually at Zwickau from 2030, investing €90m to reuse parts and reduce reliance on raw materials and carbon footprint. - Euwid Recycling
Germany’s AfD Receives Millions in Public Funding, benefiting from around €500 million in state funds during 2025-2029 despite being monitored for right-wing extremism by intelligence agencies. - DW
Syrian President Delays Planned Germany Visit, citing Syria’s political situation as ceasefire talks progress with Kurdish-led forces, impacting refugee repatriation and reconstruction discussions with German officials. - DW
Germany Includes Chinese Brands in EV Subsidy, with its new €3 billion program promoting electric vehicle adoption among low- to middle-income buyers, boosting affordable Chinese automakers like BYD in Europe. - CnEVPost

India News Roundup

India Avoids Joining Peace Board, raising questions about the initiative's acceptance while India weighs participation amid geopolitical sensitivities and global diplomatic concerns over the new peace body's impact on the UN. - IndiaToday
First Made in India C-295 Aircraft Coming Soon, scheduled to roll out before September, highlighting India-Spain defence collaboration and India's growing manufacturing capabilities in aerospace. - The Hindu
India Signs $3B LNG Deal with UAE, aiming to double trade by 2032 while seeking alternatives amid stalled US negotiations on trade agreements. - CNBC
India-EU Free Trade Deal Near Completion, expected to reduce tariffs and expand market access for key Indian exports amid ongoing sensitive negotiations and regulatory challenges. - Economic Times
American AI Firms Gain from India, Not Charity, profits drive U.S. AI firms offering low-cost AI tools in India to harvest user data and compete against Chinese rivals, not out of charity or goodwill. - India Today
Apple Set to Launch Apple Pay in India, aiming to enable card-based contactless payments first, with future plans to integrate with UPI, intensifying competition in India's digital payments market. - Dynamite News

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction - Part 4
Construction and Infrastructure

Ukraine’s reconstruction represents the largest infrastructure undertaking in Europe since World War II, with the World Bank estimating damages exceeding €150 billion.

The Scale of Reconstruction Needs

Ukraine needs to rebuild roads, railways, bridges, schools, hospitals, and residential housing, creating what experts call one of the largest infrastructure projects in modern history. Over 300,000 residential units require reconstruction, alongside thousands of kilometers of roads, hundreds of bridges, and critical public infrastructure from schools to hospitals.

Top German and European Companies to Watch

Hochtief AG (HOT) stands out as Germany’s largest construction firm with €33.3 billion in 2024 revenue. The company operates through three divisions, Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe, with extensive experience in Eastern European mega-projects. Hochtief’s expertise in transportation infrastructure, energy projects, and urban development positions it ideally for Ukraine’s reconstruction contracts. 1

Heidelberg Materials AG (HEI) is the only construction materials company in Germany’s DAX index. The company produces cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete—essential materials for rebuilding roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals. With 3,000 production sites across 60 countries and existing Eastern European operations, Heidelberg can scale quickly to meet Ukrainian demand. 2

Source : Trading View / 1 Year Performance

Strabag SE (STR) is Europe’s third-largest construction company, generating €17.4 billion in annual revenue. Listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange, Strabag specializes in transportation infrastructure, tunneling, and civil engineering. The company generates 45.9% of revenue from Germany and operates extensively across Central and Eastern Europe, providing established supply chains and regional expertise. 3

Bilfinger SE (GBF) offers engineering services, project management, and industrial maintenance. The company’s expertise in large-scale infrastructure projects and existing Eastern European relationships create opportunities in Ukraine’s systematic reconstruction phase. 4

ETF Options

Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Construction & Materials UCITS ETF provides diversified exposure to European construction and materials companies, including several positioned for Ukraine reconstruction.

iShares STOXX Europe 600 Construction & Materials UCITS ETF offers similar sector coverage with different weighting methodologies.

Risk Considerations

Security risks remain despite any peace agreement, prioritize companies with diversified geographic revenue streams. Chinese state-owned construction firms will compete aggressively, often with favorable financing from Chinese policy banks. German and European companies must differentiate through quality, EU standards compliance, and political considerations around Euro-Atlantic integration.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

India celebrates its 77th Republic Day on Monday, January 26, with EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa as chief guests. The timing is significant, the India-EU FTA, dubbed the “mother of all deals,” is expected to be announced on January 27 during the India-EU Summit.

Once finalized, this agreement would create a market of 2 billion people accounting for almost a quarter of global GDP. For investors, this opens substantial opportunities in sectors from textiles to machinery, particularly as 87% of Indian exports to the EU now face full tariffs after GSP benefits ended January 1.

Next week, we’ll explore how the India-EU trade deal impacts specific sectors and which companies stand to benefit most.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Investing.com

Wienerborse

Investing.com

#16 - WK03

Sun, 18 Jan 2026 05:00:43 GMT

What a week it’s been! While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was in India sealing deals and strengthening ties, his first visit to Asia as Chancellor, markets were already responding. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) saw its shares jump 10% as defense cooperation took center stage in the 19 agreements signed between our two nations.

But as India-Germany relations reached new heights with €1.24 billion committed to green energy projects, the Atlantic grew stormier. NATO allies, including Germany, are now deploying troops to Greenland, not to counter Russia or China, but to protect Danish territory from potential U.S. aggression. Yes, you read that right. NATO members defending against NATO.

In this week’s newsletter, we dive deep into Chancellor Merz’s visit, the meetings, and what these agreements mean for both economies. We explore the renewable energy opportunities emerging from redevelopment of Ukrain after peace deal.

On a personal note, I’ve built something for our community: deingeld.in a dual-currency portfolio tracker designed for those of us investing across India and Germany. It’s in testing mode, and I’d love your feedback. See exactly how EUR/INR movements impact your returns, all in one dashboard. Give it a try and let me know what you think.

Stock Market

Sensex had a mixed week, starting around 84,000 early on but facing selling pressure mid-week before recovering slightly to close at 83,570 on Friday. Overall, it ended the week a bit lower amid broader market caution, though IT stocks like Infosys provided some lift with better growth outlook.

DAX showed strength, climbing from about 25,124 on Jan 9 to peaks above 25,400 mid-week before settling at around 25,297 by Friday, for a modest weekly gain of 0.14%. Energy and AI-related names like Siemens Energy drove gains, offsetting losses in chemicals and telecom.

Germany News Roundup

Germany narrowly avoids third recession year, as its economy shows resilience amid global challenges and geopolitical tensions, preventing a prolonged downturn in 2026. - DW
US Investor Plans €4 Billion Data Center in NRW, aiming to develop a state-of-the-art facility for cloud and AI services with completion expected in the early 2030s in Lippetal’s industrial area. - Heise
AfD Youth Plans NRW Chapter Formation, aiming to establish ‘Generation Deutschland’ in Iserlohn this Saturday, potentially facing protests. - IKZ-Online
End of Citizen’s Allowance for Ukrainians in Germany, may increase state costs due to hindered labor market integration and higher administrative expenses, warns economist Marcel Fratzscher amid policy changes by Merz government. - FR.de
Merz Calls to End Working Hours Law, arguing it should be regulated by trade partners, not government, sparking sharp opposition from SPD defending employee protections and cautioning against deregulation risks. - FAZ
German Military Deployment to Greenland Begins, aiming to counter Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic through coordinated NATO efforts under Danish leadership amid rising geopolitical tensions. - DW
Lufthansa to Equip All Aircraft with Starlink Wi-Fi, providing high-speed, free internet from 2026 on 850 planes, enhancing streaming and cloud usage, making it Europe’s largest Starlink-equipped airline fleet. - Lufthansa Group
Germany’s Gas Reserves Hit Historic Low, raising concerns over supply shortages as rapid depletion during cold weather may exhaust reserves before the heating season ends, prompting calls for stronger government intervention. - Balkanweb

India News Roundup

India-Germany Strengthen Strategic Partnership, with enhanced cooperation in defense, trade, technology, sustainable development, and education following Chancellor Merz's visit to India in January 2026. - MEA
India-EU Trade Deal Signing Set for 2026, marking the EU's largest-ever trade pact excluding agriculture but expanding economic ties and market access in sectors like technology, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. - India Briefing
India Ends 10-Minute Delivery Deadlines, to improve gig workers' safety and address concerns raised during nationwide strikes against hazardous working conditions in quick-commerce platforms. - BBC News
Trump Imposes 25% Tariff on Iran Traders, affecting major partners like India, China, and UAE with implications for trade relations and key projects like Iran's Chabahar port development. - The Hindu
Deutsche Bank's India Retail Assets Draw Final Bids, with Kotak Mahindra and Federal Bank in advanced talks to acquire $2.5 billion portfolio including loans and wealth management, signaling expansion in India’s banking sector. - Livemint
Air India Upgrades Mumbai-Frankfurt Fleet, with new B787-9 aircraft featuring 100% new or upgraded products, enhancing passenger experience and supporting ongoing fleet transformation through 2026. - The Business Guardian

German Chancellor Merz's India Visit
Major Announcements and Agreements

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, accompanied by a high-powered delegation including 23 top German CEOs, made India his first destination in Asia as Federal Chancellor, marking a significant milestone in India-Germany relations as the two nations celebrate 75 years of diplomatic relations and 25 years of their Strategic Partnership.

Defense and Security:

Joint Declaration of Intent (JDoI) signed on strengthening bilateral defence industrial cooperation
Germany’s intent to participate in Naval Exercise MILAN and 9th Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Conclave of Chiefs in February 2026
Germany’s participation in Air Combat Exercise TARANG SHAKTI in September 2026
Germany’s decision to deploy a Liaison Officer to the Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR)
Establishment of a new Track 1.5 Foreign Policy and Security Dialogue between the two countries
New Defence Industrial Cooperation Roadmap for long-term co-development and co-production
Source : pmindia.gov.in

Trade and Economy:

JDoI signed on strengthening bilateral economic cooperation by establishing a CEO’s Forum, integrated into a Joint India-Germany Economic and Investment Committee
Both leaders reiterated support for the conclusion of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement
Launch of India-Germany Centre of Excellence (CoE) to promote shared knowledge and innovation

Critical and Emerging Technologies:

Three JDoI signed on India Germany Semiconductor Ecosystem partnership and in the field of critical minerals and telecommunications
MoU signed between National Institute of Electronics & Information Technology (NIELIT) and Infineon Technologies AG, German semiconductor manufacturing and design company
Finalization of Work Plan for 2026-27 under the Indo-German Digital Dialogue focusing on internet & data governance, AI, semiconductors and Industry 4.0
Establishment of bilateral Indo-Pacific consultation mechanism

Green Energy and Climate:

Germany committed new funding of 1.24 billion Euros under the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership (GSDP), supporting projects in renewable energy, green hydrogen, PM e-Bus SEWA, and climate-resilient urban infrastructure
MoU signed between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) and the German Technical and Scientific Association for Gas and Water Industries (DVGW)
Offtake agreement for Green Ammonia between Indian Company AM Green and German company Uniper Global Commodities
Launch of Battery Storage working group under the India-Germany platform for Investments in Renewable Energy worldwide

Science and Research:

JDoI signed for cooperation in Research and Development (R&D) on Bioeconomy
JDoI signed for the extension of tenure of the Indo-German Science and Technology Centre (IGSTC)

Education and Skill Development:

Indo-German Roadmap on Higher Education signed between India and Germany
JDoI signed on the Framework conditions of Global Skill Partnerships for fair, ethical and sustainable recruitment of healthcare professionals
JDoI for establishment of a National Centre of Excellence (NCoE) for Skilling in Renewable Energy at National Skill Training Institute (NSTI), Hyderabad

Traditional Medicine:

MoU signed between All India Institute of Ayurveda (AIIA) and Charité University, Germany

Cultural and People-to-People Ties:

MoU signed between National Maritime Heritage Complex (NMHC), Lothal and German Maritime Museum-Leibniz Institute for Maritime History, Bremerhaven
Two JDoI signed for cooperation in the field of Sport and Postal services
Letter of Intent (LoI) signed between the Department of Posts and Deutsche Post AG
MoU signed between Hockey India and the German Hockey Federation for Youth Hockey Development
Opening of Honorary Consulate in Ahmedabad

Source : pmindia.gov.in

Migration and Mobility:

Germany announced visa-free transit for Indian passport holders for travel through Germany
Expanded legal skilled migration under the Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement

Strategic Significance

The visit reflects the high priority Germany attaches to India as a key strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, with cooperation expanding to include new areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, emerging technologies, and green fuels, alongside defense, climate, scientific research, and labor mobility.

Both leaders agreed that the next India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations will be held in Germany later in 2026, ensuring continued momentum in this deepening strategic partnership.

Read more at pmindia.gov.in / Affairs Cloud

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction - Part 3
Energy and Renewables

Ukraine’s energy reconstruction centers on renewables, creating a €50 billion opportunity over the next decade. The country aims for 50% renewable energy by 2035, up from just 15% in 2021, a transformation that positions German renewable companies for substantial growth.

Why Renewables Lead Ukraine’s Rebuild

Decentralized solar and wind systems prove more resilient against attacks than centralized power plants. Ukraine already built more onshore wind capacity (114 MW) since the war began than England, powering 200,000 homes near the frontline. The EU’s Ukraine Facility provides up to €50 billion through 2027, with renewable projects receiving priority funding.

Top German Companies to Watch

Siemens Energy (ENR) remains the strongest play with its Siemens Gamesa wind division and grid solutions. The company supplies turbines for Ukraine’s wind projects and grid reconstruction systems, dual revenue streams from both generation and transmission infrastructure.

RWE AG (RWE) operates Europe’s largest renewable portfolio at 18 GW installed capacity. The company plans €55 billion investment by 2030 to expand renewables capacity beyond 65 GW, with Eastern European projects as key growth drivers.

Nordex SE (NDX1) manufactures onshore wind turbines specifically suited for Ukraine’s geography. The company’s N149 and N175 models match Ukraine’s wind conditions perfectly, and it already supplies equipment to DTEK’s Ukrainian projects.

Source : Trading View / 1 Year Data

SMA Solar Technology (S92) produces photovoltaic inverters and battery storage systems essential for distributed solar installations. Ukraine’s rooftop solar program for schools and hospitals creates immediate demand for SMA’s residential and commercial solutions.

EnBW Energie (EBK) develops both onshore and offshore wind farms across Europe. The company maintains strong Eastern European relationships through existing projects in Poland and Romania.

ETF Options

iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF provides diversified renewable exposure including several German companies. Lower geographic concentration risk than single stocks.

Lyxor New Energy UCITS ETF tracks renewable energy technology companies with emphasis on European manufacturers.

Decentralized renewable infrastructure serves both Ukraine’s energy security and investor interests, damaged solar panels or wind turbines can be replaced individually rather than rebuilding entire power plants.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As we wrap up this week’s newsletter, one thing is clear: the world isn’t standing still.

Before you go, I genuinely hope you’ll check out deingeld.in. I built it because I needed it myself, a clear view of how my India and Germany investments perform together, accounting for currency swings that can make or break returns. It’s free to try, still in testing, and your feedback would mean a lot.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#15 - WK02

Sun, 11 Jan 2026 05:52:30 GMT

What a difference a week makes. Last week, we welcomed the new year with optimism about global markets and fresh beginnings. This week? Reality hit hard, and it came with a hefty price tag.

India’s stock markets tumbled, the Nifty 50 and Sensex both dropped nearly 1.8% in their steepest single-day decline in four months, after President Trump approved a bill proposing tariffs as high as 500% on countries purchasing Russian oil.

Meanwhile, across Europe, winter decided to remind everyone who’s boss. Storm Goretti paralyzed air traffic, with Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport canceling over 800 flights in a single day and stranding more than 1,000 passengers overnight on field beds. Paris saw 100 flights grounded at Charles de Gaulle, while Brussels and Frankfurt dealt with cascading delays.

Greece got hit even harder, not by snow, but by a mysterious radio communications failure that shut down the entire airspace for hours, grounding around 120 flights at Athens and Thessaloniki as air traffic controllers heard only piercing whistles instead of pilot communications. The cause? Still unknown.

And Berlin? The German capital suffered its longest blackout since World War II, over four days, affecting 45,000 households after a suspected far-left arson attack on power lines during freezing temperatures. The Volcano Group claimed responsibility, targeting what they called the “fossil fuel economy,” though one elderly woman died during the outage.

But here’s the silver lining in this chaos: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in India tomorrow (January 12-13) for his first official visit, meeting Prime Minister Modi in Ahmedabad to review the 25-year India-Germany Strategic Partnership. The visit comes just ahead of the India-EU Summit on January 27 and focuses on accelerating cooperation in trade, investment, defense, and technology.

This week’s newsletter dives deeper into one particular opportunity emerging from all this European chaos and geopolitical realignment: Ukraine’s reconstruction and the heavy machinery sector that will power it. Read on to discover which German companies are positioned to benefit most.

Stock Market

The Sensex had a rough week, closing at 83,576 on Friday, down about 2.5% for the week. This was the worst performance since September 2025. The market faced selling pressure for five straight days due to worries about potential US tariffs on India (talk of up to 500% tariffs on certain goods), foreign investors pulling money out, and concerns about US-India trade negotiations.

The DAX had complete opposite story. It crossed 25,000 points for the first time ever, and continued setting records. It shows hope for German economic recovery in 2026, government plans to spend billions on infrastructure and defense, and defense stocks doing particularly well due to geopolitical tensions.

The Euro is currently trading around 105 Indian Rupees. The rate has been fairly stable this week, moving in a tight range between about 104.85 to 105.58.

Germany News Roundup

Merz Warns of Critical Economic Situation, emphasizing urgent political actions needed in 2026 to boost business conditions and restore growth amid ongoing economic challenges in Germany. - Daily Finland
German Corporate Bankruptcies Hit 20-Year High, reaching 17,604 cases in 2025 with no recovery expected due to ongoing economic challenges, impacting 170,000 jobs amid structural and competitive pressures. - n-tv.de
Unemployment in Germany reached nearly 2.9 million at year-end, marking a multi-year high. Experts predict a modest recovery only by mid-2026, hindered by demographic shifts, structural changes, and economic weakness. - Reuters
Gas Heating Costs to Rise Sharply in 2026, due to significant CO₂ price increases, pressuring households to consider energy-efficient heating alternatives like heat pumps to manage expenses and reduce emissions. - Frankfurter Rundschau
Rheinmetall and MBDA are creating a joint venture, to develop naval laser weapons for ships by 2029. These weapons will use concentrated energy to precisely counter drone threats, though operation is sensitive. - Defense News
Lidl and Kaufland Expand Self-Checkout Usage, leading to concerns over decreasing cash payment acceptance and potential exclusion of some groups, while maintaining traditional cashier options and staff roles. - SWR
Indian Professionals Lead Germany’s Wage Market, earning the highest median salary due to concentration in STEM roles critical to Germany’s economy, reflecting a targeted pattern of skill-based migration rather than nationality bias. - Times of India

India News Roundup

German Chancellor Merz to Visit India in January, to advance strategic partnership discussions covering trade, technology, defense, sustainability, and people-to-people ties during his first visit in 2026. - The Hindu
US May Impose 500% Tariffs on India, potentially affecting Indian exports, energy security, and trade relations due to imports of Russian crude oil under the Sanctioning Russia Act 2025. - Vajiram & Ravi
Sensex Drops 1,500 Points Amid Market Selloff, investor wealth erodes by Rs 9.19 lakh crore due to geopolitical risks, US tariff threats, and declining large-cap stocks, impacting market confidence and broader indices in India. - Times of India
India Issues 72-Hour Ultimatum to Musk’s Grok, demanding action against AI-generated obscene images on X to maintain legal protections amid global scrutiny of AI misuse. - Rest of World
India Advises Against Non-Essential Iran Travel, due to ongoing protests over inflation and currency devaluation, urging caution for Indians currently in the country and advising to avoid protest areas and register with the embassy. - The Hindu

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction - Part 2
Engineering and Heavy Machinery

Ukraine’s reconstruction represents a multi-billion euro opportunity for German engineering and heavy machinery companies over the next decade. For investors, this creates potential exposure through specific stocks and sector ETFs.

Top German Companies to Watch

Siemens (SIE.DE) stands out with multiple revenue streams: Siemens Energy for grid reconstruction, Siemens Mobility for railway electrification and the European gauge conversion project.

Traton SE (8TRA), owner of MAN Truck & Bus and Scania, offers heavy construction vehicles and commercial trucks essential for infrastructure projects.

Wacker Neuson (WAC) specializes in compact construction equipment, excavators, loaders, and soil compaction machinery crucial for debris removal and foundation work.

GEA Group (G1A) provides industrial process technology and machinery for rebuilding food processing and manufacturing facilities.

Source : TradingView / 1 Year Data

Krones (KRN) manufactures packaging, bottling, and process technology systems needed to restore beverage and food production infrastructure.

Bilfinger (GBF) offers engineering services, project management, and industrial maintenance, key capabilities for large-scale reconstruction projects.

Knorr-Bremse (KBX) supplies railway braking and door systems for rail modernization.

Dürr (DUE) provides industrial automation and manufacturing systems for factory reconstruction.

Hochtief (HOT), Germany’s largest construction firm, is positioned for infrastructure mega-projects with existing Eastern European experience.

ETF Options for Diversified Exposure

iShares STOXX Europe 600 Industrial Goods & Services UCITS ETF (EXH1.DE) provides broad exposure to European industrials including many German engineering firms.

Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Construction & Materials UCITS ETF offers construction materials exposure, though leans away from heavy machinery specifically.

Early movers benefit most. Companies establishing Ukrainian presence now gain specification-setting advantages and preferred supplier status for the peak reconstruction phase (2027-2030). Watch for announcements of Ukrainian representative offices, joint ventures, or reconstruction contracts as positive catalysts.

Until Next Sunday…

This week reminded us that markets don’t move in straight lines and geopolitics rarely takes holidays. Merz’s India visit next week could signal deeper economic ties between Europe and Asia.

Next week, we’ll explore the renewable energy sector’s role in Ukraine’s rebuild and which companies are positioning themselves as green infrastructure leaders.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#14 - WK01

Sun, 04 Jan 2026 05:01:51 GMT

Happy New Year!

As we kick off the first edition of 2026, there’s plenty to feel optimistic about. The year ended on a milestone note for India overtook Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy with a GDP of $4.18 trillion. Only the United States, China, and Germany stand ahead now, and if things continue on this trajectory, India is eyeing the third spot within the next 3-4 years.

So what do the experts think about markets in 2026? The predictions are cautiously optimistic for both our focus regions. For Germany’s DAX, Berenberg Bank expects the index to move higher through mid-2026, targeting the 25,500-26,200 range after already crossing their 24,000 forecast for end-2025.

On the Indian side, Morgan Stanley has laid out three scenarios for the Sensex in 2026. Their base case, which they give a 50% probability sees the Sensex reaching 95,000 by end-2026, a solid 13% upside from current levels, assuming stable macro conditions and continued private sector investment. The bull case is even more exciting at 107,000, though that depends on favorable global conditions including lower oil prices and supportive policies.

Beyond the usual market action, 2026 might also bring something we’ve been watching closely for three years, a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced on New Year that a peace agreement is “90% ready,” with high-level diplomatic meetings scheduled throughout early January.

If peace materializes, it opens up massive reconstruction opportunities in sectors ranging from infrastructure and construction to energy and engineering, areas where German expertise shines. We’ve dedicated this week’s opportunity section to exploring what a Ukraine peace deal could mean for European markets and where the smart money might flow.

On the other side of the world, a large-scale U.S. military strike in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Following months of escalating pressure, U.S. Special Forces (Delta Force) apprehended Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, at the presidential palace in Caracas. Both were immediately transported to New York to face federal drug-trafficking charges, while President Donald Trump announced that the United States would "run the country" until a safe transition to a new government can be established.

Stock Market

Indian markets had a positive start to 2026 after a sluggish end to the previous year. The Sensex moved from around 85,041 on December 26 to close at 85,762 on January 2, gaining approximately 721 points or about 0.85% for the week. Banking and auto stocks led the rally, with Nifty Bank hitting a new record high during the week.

The DAX closed 2025 on a strong note at 24,490 and continued its momentum into 2026. The index rose to around 24,500-24,524 in the first trading session of 2026, staying near its October record highs. This week’s modest gain came after an impressive 23% rise throughout 2025, marking the best annual performance since 2019. Defense and aerospace stocks were the top performers this week as geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher military spending continue to support the sector.

The Euro-Rupee exchange rate remained relatively stable during the week, hovering in the 105-106 range.

Germany News Roundup

Merz Sees 2026 as Germany’s New Beginning, highlighting challenges from war, economy, and reforms while expressing confidence in future prosperity through resilience and policy changes. - DW
Germany Struggles Digitally Behind Peers, digital public services lag due to bureaucracy, reliance on outdated methods and fragmented federal structure lacking nationwide solutions and coordination. - DW
German Economy Faces Decline Amid High Costs, leading to investor flight, significant job cuts, and record insolvencies in major industries during 2025 and 2026 forecasts. - Merkur
Germany Expands Industrial Ties with Kazakhstan, enhancing cooperation through new projects, technologies, and investments in mechanical engineering to foster long-term strategic growth and market access in Central Asia. - DKNews.kz
A freight car transporting hazardous materials derailed near Rosenheim, causing extensive damage to railway tracks and parked vehicles. The closure of parts of the line towards Austria is expected to last weeks due to costly repairs. - DW
Tesla plans to increase production capacity at its Grünheide factory, near Berlin in 2026 despite weak local sales. The factory currently serves over 30 markets and may start producing battery cells as part of future expansions. - Reuters
Bulgaria will join the eurozone on January 1, 2026, becoming its 21st member. Political instability and public concerns over inflation have lowered support for the adoption of the euro. - BBC

India News Roundup

India Rises as World’s Fourth-Largest Economy, marking a significant achievement with $4.18 trillion GDP but facing challenges in widespread prosperity and per capita income growth amid large population and job market issues. - GKToday
India Advances Rare Earth Magnet Manufacturing, with a 7,280 crore scheme to build 6,000 MTPA domestic capacity boosting electric mobility, renewables, defence, and self-reliance while reducing import reliance and supporting long-term industrial growth. - PIB
Bangladesh Recalls High Commissioner from India, to Dhaka for urgent consultations amid recent developments in bilateral relations with India, according to diplomatic sources. - Newsonair
India Advances Electronics Manufacturing with ECMS Tranche, approving 22 projects with ₹41,863 crore investment, expected to create 33,791 direct jobs and boost self-reliance across key electronic component sectors nationwide. - PIB
Key Personal Finance Changes in India for 2026, will affect credit card fees, loan rules for gold and silver, new SEBI mutual fund regulations, income tax revisions, BSBD improvements, faster cheque clearing, two-factor authentication, and updated economic measures. - Upstox News
Top 5 Indian AI Startups Transforming Industries, are raising billions and innovating in healthcare, language models, and customer service with strong government backing and global venture capital interest. - BusinessOutreach

Opportunity
Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal and Reconstruction

Where Do We Stand on Peace Talks?

The start of 2026 brings cautious optimism as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced in his New Year address that a peace agreement is “90% ready”. Multiple high-level meetings are scheduled in early January. While Russia continues to push for territorial concessions and uncertainties remain, the diplomatic momentum suggests 2026 could be the year when reconstruction moves from planning to actual implementation. 1

The Money on the Table

The financial commitments for Ukraine’s reconstruction are substantial and already allocated. Germany has approved its 2026 budget with €11.5 billion specifically earmarked for Ukraine, the largest amount since the invasion began. Beyond immediate military aid, the European Union has established the “Ukraine Facility,” a dedicated mechanism providing up to €50 billion in support from 2024 to 2027 for recovery, reconstruction, and modernization efforts. 2 3

Which Sectors Will Benefit?

If peace materializes, several sectors stand to gain significantly from Ukraine’s reconstruction, which experts are calling “one of the largest infrastructure undertakings in modern history”.

Construction and Infrastructure: The most obvious beneficiary will be the construction sector, as Ukraine needs to rebuild roads, railways, bridges, schools, hospitals, and residential housing.

Energy and Renewables: Russia’s systematic targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure means the entire grid needs rebuilding.

Engineering and Heavy Machinery: From gearboxes to heavy equipment, the reconstruction will require massive amounts of machinery and engineering expertise.

Defense Industry (Short-term): Interestingly, even with peace, the defense sector will remain relevant in the near term as Ukraine builds security guarantees and NATO-style protections.

Banking and Financial Services: International financial are providing billions through various mechanisms, creating opportunities in the financial services sector supporting reconstruction.

In the coming editions of this newsletter, we’ll dive deeper into each of these sectors, examining specific companies, investment vehicles, and strategies to participate in what could be one of Europe’s defining economic opportunities of the decade. Stay tuned as we explore how you can potentially benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction story.

Until Next Sunday…

As we navigate this new year, remember that being an investor isn’t about catching every single wave, but about being on the right beach when the big one hits. With India now the 4th largest economy and peace talks potentially unlocking a massive European reconstruction era, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of “The Great Rebuilding”. Whether it’s physical infrastructure in Ukraine or digital infrastructure in India, the theme is clear: value is moving toward tangible, long-term growth.

Next week, we will kick off our “Deep Dive” series on the reconstruction sectors, starting with German Engineering & Heavy Machinery.

Wishing you all a wonderful start to 2026.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

BBC

Pravda

European Commission

#13 - WK52

Sun, 28 Dec 2025 05:01:02 GMT

Welcome to Week 52.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas with family and friends!

Speaking of family reunions, this week brought us an unexpected political gathering in Mumbai, Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray have joined hands for the upcoming civic polls, setting aside years of rivalry.

Back on the policy front, India continues to strengthen its strategic infrastructure. The government’s new SHANTI bill (Streamlining and Harmonisation of Administrative and Nuclear Technology Infrastructure) aims to modernize the country’s nuclear regulatory framework, potentially accelerating clean energy deployment. Meanwhile, the aviation sector received a boost with approvals for two new airlines, signaling confidence in India’s growing travel market as we head into 2026.

Across markets in Germany, we’re seeing significant movements in mid-cap space. Both the MDAX and SDAX indices have undergone notable composition changes this week, reshuffling which companies make the cut in these closely-watched benchmarks. These adjustments often create interesting opportunities as index funds rebalance, more on this in watchlist section below.

Stock Market

The Sensex had a choppy week, closing at 85,041 on December 26, posting a modest weekly gain. The index showed resilience mid-week, climbing to around 85,600 on December 24, but gave back some gains in the final session, falling 367 points on December 26. Overall, the week saw consolidation with lower trading volumes due to the holiday season.

Germany’s DAX index performed better, climbing to 24,340 by December 23, representing a gain of approximately 0.2% for the week. The index traded near one-month highs, supported by strong US economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The Christmas week saw thin trading volumes but steady positive momentum.

The Euro-Rupee pair remained relatively stable, hovering in the 104.92-106.16 range throughout the week. The rupee continues to face pressure from foreign fund outflows, though RBI intervention has prevented sharp moves.

Germany News Roundup

Stuttgart’s Auto Industry Faces Major Crisis, leading to significant job losses, economic deficits, and a potential long-term impact on the region’s prosperity and fiscal stability by 2030. - Stuttgarter Zeitung
Riester Update 2026 Could Return Hundreds, revealing new contract terms that may allow savers to reclaim up to 100 euros monthly depending on their policy details and past adjustments. - Merkur
2025: A Lost Year for German Economy, marked by stagnation, minimal growth, rising insolvencies, job losses, and increased state debt despite moderate consumption and investment declines. - FAZ
Germany’s Export Model Struggles Amid US-China Slump, facing simultaneous demand drops from both the US and China, pushing Germany toward a record trade deficit and urging urgent diversification of export markets and deeper European integration. - Euronews
Germany Faces Economic and Defense Spending Dilemma, Chancellor Merz’s government struggles to balance rising defense budgets with urgent economic reforms amidst growing domestic discontent and far-right political challenges. - ForeignAffairs
EU Imposes €3 Customs Fee on Small Imports, to limit the dominance of Chinese e-commerce on low-value parcels entering the EU from July 2026, ensuring fair competition amid rising imports. - Euronews
Mercedes-Benz to Launch Branded City in Dubai, merging luxury living, retail, and leisure within a vast 9 million sq ft multi-tower development designed as a connected urban district. - DuPont Registry
Samsung’s Harman Acquires ZF’s ADAS Unit, boosting connected car technologies with advanced driver assistance systems and accelerating software-defined vehicle solutions for automakers globally. - SamMobile
2026 German Job Market Winners and Losers, reflect a paradox of rising unemployment despite acute shortages in growing sectors like AI, with ongoing job cuts in manufacturing and challenges for both academics and unskilled workers. - RP-Online

India News Roundup

SHANTI Bill Revamps India's Nuclear Energy Sector, introducing private participation, regulatory reforms, and liability adjustments to boost capacity and efficiency, while execution challenges and timeline uncertainties remain significant. - ORF Online
Two New Airlines Enter India's Aviation Market, but industry experts doubt they can significantly disrupt the dominant duopoly of IndiGo and Air India Group controlling over 90% of domestic market share. - Moneycontrol
India Launches Heaviest Satellite Yet, marking a major boost in its space capabilities and commercial satellite ambitions, with plans for future missions including human spaceflight by 2027. - DW
Aravalli Hills Redefinition Sparks Protests in India, prompting concerns over ecological risks and mining under new Supreme Court criteria that focus on height rather than ecological importance across Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, and Delhi. - BBC News
India-New Zealand Trade Pact Boosts Duty-Free Trade, eliminating tariffs on most goods, enabling $20 billion investment, and promoting skilled mobility, strengthening bilateral economic ties and diversifying India's export markets amid US tariffs. - CNBC
Android’s Emergency Location Service Launches in India, starting in Uttar Pradesh for Android 6.0+ users, helping emergency responders locate callers more accurately during 112 calls without sharing location data with Google. - 9to5Google
Ambani Calls for Stronger Science-Business Integration, to foster innovation in AI, clean energy, and technology-driven solutions benefiting society with empathy and affordability as key principles for India's growth. - Fortune India

Opportunity
Energy Storage

Value Research published an article about clean energy storage, highlighting what could be India’s most overlooked investment opportunity right now. While solar and wind dominate headlines, the real shift is happening in large-scale energy storage. India’s grid wasn’t built for renewable power that fluctuates with sunlight and wind, creating a structural bottleneck where clean energy gets wasted during oversupply periods.

The National Electricity Plan 2023 reveals India needs 16 GW/82 GWh of storage by 2027 and 74 GW/411 GWh by 2032. The government has aligned policy support with transmission-charge waivers and a Rs 9,400-crore scheme for battery storage. Companies like Exide Industries, JSW Energy, Tata Power, and L&T are positioning themselves across battery manufacturing, grid-scale storage, and EPC integration. Storage is becoming the backbone that converts India’s renewable potential into usable electricity.

For more details, read the complete article here.

Watchlist
German Index Reshuffle

Germany’s mid-cap and small-cap indices underwent their quarterly rebalancing on December 22, bringing fresh names into the spotlight while some established players moved down a tier.

The MDAX welcomed two interesting additions. Aumovio, the automotive supplier spun off from tire giant Continental, made it to the mid-cap index just weeks after its market debut. The company focuses on automotive electronics and components. Joining it is TKMS (ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems), the submarine and frigate manufacturer that went public in October.

Making way for the newcomers are Gerresheimer and HelloFresh, both moving down to the SDAX. Gerresheimer, a pharmaceutical packaging manufacturer, has seen its market cap fall below the threshold after a challenging year. HelloFresh, the meal-kit delivery service, also couldn’t maintain its mid-cap status amid operational headwinds.

The SDAX saw even more action. New entrants include Ottobock (prosthetics), Tonies (toy company), Verbio (biofuel producer), and PSI Software, along with the relegated Gerresheimer and HelloFresh. Six companies exited the SDAX: LPKF, Stratec, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Formycon, Procredit, and Amadeus Fire.

These changes matter particularly for ETF investors who track these indices, as funds must rebalance their holdings accordingly, creating short-term price movements. The DAX, Germany’s flagship index, remained unchanged this quarter.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#12 - WK51

Sun, 21 Dec 2025 05:00:38 GMT

Welcome to Week 51.

There are a few things one quietly assumes will never change in Germany: Sundays stay peaceful, Deutsche Bahn will somehow still be late, and Volkswagen will never shut down a factory on its home turf. Yet this week, one of those assumptions broke, as VW confirmed the closure of a German plant.

As we count down to Christmas with just one week remaining, Europe’s automobile industry received welcome news as the EU scaled back its 2035 ban on combusion vehicles, now requiring only 90% of new cars to be zero-emission rather than 100%.

Meanwhile, thousands of farmers converged on Brussels this week with tractors, protesting the EU-Mercosur trade deal they fear will flood European markets with cheaper South American agricultural products, resulting in tense clashes with police near the European Parliament.

In the edtech sector, Coursera and Udemy announced a landmark $2.5 billion merger, combining two major online learning platforms to address the surging global demand for AI skills training in an evolving workplace landscape.

On the diplomatic front, Prime Minister Modi embarked on a significant three-nation tour to Jordan, Ethiopia, and Oman, strengthening India’s strategic partnerships across West Asia and Africa. Rahul Gandhi traveled to Germany during the same period, engaging with lawmakers and the Indian diaspora in Berlin, though the visit drew criticism from the BJP. Read more about both diplomatic visits in this week's newsletter.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market had a tough week, with the Sensex dropping from around 85,268 points on December 12 to 84,929 points by December 19 - a decline of roughly 400 points or about 0.4%. The index broke a four-day losing streak on Friday with a 469-point gain, but it wasn’t enough to recover the week’s losses.

The German market had a positive week with the DAX closing at 24,288.40, marking a weekly gain of 0.42%. The index showed resilience after some mid-week volatility, with Friday's session seeing a strong 0.40% gain. Leading the Friday rally were Commerzbank, MTU Aero Engines, and Bayer.

The rupee strengthened against the Euro this week, gaining approximately 1.3% against the Euro during the week.

Germany News Roundup

Volkswagen Ends Production at Dresden Plant, after 24 years, shifting focus to AI, robotics, and research amid economic challenges and tariff impacts in Germany and global markets. - Economic Times
Germany’s State Debt Surges to 68%, The deficit ratio nearly doubles to 4.8%, marking a peak since reunification, prompting calls for fiscal reform by Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel. - Telepolis
Ford Abandons Big EV Plans, Impacting Cologne, shifting focus to combustion and hybrid cars with a $19.5 billion cost, causing uncertainty and job cuts at the Cologne plant amid a strategic partnership with Renault for affordable EVs. - Express
Germany’s Mittelstand Doubts Economic Revival, as confidence in government policies, infrastructure, and fiscal programs sharply declines, with only 39% expecting growth turnaround compared to 62% in spring, reveals DZ Bank survey. - TradingView
Germany Launches €30 Billion Investment Fund, aimed at mobilizing private capital to drive energy transition, technology, and industrial modernization across key sectors including startups and SMEs. - Global Banking and Finance Review
Germany Foils Islamist Christmas Market Attack Plot, authorities arrested five suspects planning a vehicle attack on a southern Bavaria Christmas market, preventing a potential Islamist-motivated terror incident during the festive season. - Le Monde
Germany Launches Pension Accounts for Children, introducing Frühstart-Rente with guaranteed state contributions to modernize private pensions and encourage early savings for future retirement. - Qazinform
EU Revises 2035 Car Emissions Ban, switching from a full combustion engine ban to a 90% emissions reduction target to balance industry support with climate goals amid EV adoption challenges. - New Era Live

India News Roundup

India's Greatest Strategic Challenge in Bangladesh, involves shifting political dynamics, increased Chinese and Pakistani influence, and risks losing strategic space in Dhaka without timely recalibration post-1971 liberation war. - The Hindu
India Targets 300 Products to Boost Russia Exports, seeking to increase shipments in engineering, pharma, agri, and chemicals to narrow the $59 billion trade deficit and tap $100 billion trade potential by 2030. - Economic Times
Apple Eyes iPhone Chip Assembly in India, facilitating local chip packaging talks with Indian manufacturers, signaling progress in India's semiconductor sector and potential supply chain diversification for Apple by 2026. - Times of India
Lok Sabha Passes Controversial VB-G RAM G Bill, guaranteeing 125 days of rural employment but sparking opposition protests over renaming MGNREGA and concerns about increased central control and state financial burden. - Illustrated Daily News
Alang Shipbreaking Yard Faces Decline, due to fewer retired ships, costly compliance, and competition from neighboring countries, severely impacting local economy and employment in the world’s largest ship recycling hub. - Al Jazeera

PM Modi’s Three-Nation Tour: Jordan, Ethiopia & Oman (Dec 15-18, 2025) 1 2 3

Jordan (Dec 15-16)

First bilateral visit in 37 years, coinciding with 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations
5 MoUs signed covering renewable energy, water resource management, cultural exchange (2025-2029), Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), and twinning arrangement between Petra and Ellora
Bilateral trade target: $5 billion over next 5 years
India-Jordan Business Forum held in Amman
Jordan to join International Solar Alliance
Proposal for UPI-Jordan digital payment system integration
Cooperation focus areas: defence, counter-terrorism, fertilizers, agriculture, renewable energy, and tourism

Ethiopia (Dec 16-17) 2

First-ever PM visit to Ethiopia
8 MoUs signed establishing Strategic Partnership, covering customs cooperation, data centre at Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, UN Peacekeeping training, debt restructuring under G20, ICCR scholarships, and AI training courses
Focus on easing customs regulations to boost bilateral trade
Infrastructure cooperation including data centre push
Strengthened Global South partnership

Oman (Dec 17-18)

Second visit to Oman, marking 70 years of diplomatic relations
Historic signing of India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) - the biggest outcome
6 additional agreements/MoUs: Maritime Heritage & Museum, Agriculture & Allied Sectors, Higher Education, CII-Oman Chamber of Commerce cooperation, Joint Vision Document on Maritime Cooperation, Executive Programme for millet cultivation
Enhanced defence cooperation including joint exercises and maritime security

Rahul Gandhi’s Germany Visit (Dec 15-20, 2025) 4 5

Key Engagements

Duration: 5-day visit from, accompanied by Indian Overseas Congress (IOC) Chairperson Sam Pitroda
BMW Visit (Munich): Toured BMW Welt and BMW manufacturing plant; highlighted TVS-BMW 450cc motorcycle partnership as “proud moment for Indian engineering”
Hertie School Address (Berlin): Delivered speech on democracy, leadership, and global responsibility; emphasized “Democracy is not merely a system of government - it is a constant process of engagement, responsibility and accountability”
Meeting with Olaf Scholz: Held luncheon meeting with former German Chancellor to discuss global affairs, trade, and India-Germany relations
Indian Diaspora Engagement (Dec 17, Berlin): Addressed ‘Connecting Cultures’ event organized by Indian Overseas Congress; met IOC presidents from across Europe to discuss NRI issues, strengthening Congress party, and IOC’s role
German Think-Tanks: Engaged with various German think-tanks on India’s trajectory in changing global landscape

Opportunity
AI Semiconductors and Quantum Computing ETF

DasInvestment published an article about AI semiconductors and quantum computing ETF, which could be an interesting sector for long-term investment consideration.

Global X launched a new ETF on November 25, 2025, the AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF (ISIN: IE0000ZL1RD2), that focuses on four key areas: AI semiconductors, processing systems, data center infrastructure, and quantum computing technologies. What caught my attention is the relatively low cost structure with a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of just 0.35%. This makes it cheaper than similar products from VanEck (0.55%) and WisdomTree (0.5%) that were launched earlier this year.

The numbers behind this sector are quite compelling. McKinsey estimates the quantum computing market could reach up to $130 billion by 2040, while Boston Consulting Group projects an even more ambitious economic value of up to $1 trillion by 2035. These aren’t small numbers, and they show why major asset managers are launching products in this space.

However, it’s important to understand that we’re talking about cutting-edge technology here. Quantum computers work fundamentally different from regular computers - they use “qubits” instead of traditional bits, which allows them to process information exponentially faster. This technology is still in development and commercial maturity is expected to take several years. This means higher volatility and potential price swings should be expected.

For more detailed information about this ETF and the underlying technology, visit the full article on DasInvestment’s page.

Until Next Sunday…

And just like that, we’re down to the final four days before Christmas. The streets are lit up, markets are buzzing with last-minute shoppers, and that familiar end-of-year feeling is in the air. It’s been quite a week, from major political visits spanning three continents to corporate announcements that could reshape entire industries.

Whether you’re staying put or traveling to be with family, I hope you get some well-deserved downtime. We’ll be back in the new year with more updates on what’s happening across markets, policies, and everything in between. Until then, enjoy the festivities, stay warm, and if you’re traveling – safe journeys!

Merry Christmas and see you in 2026!

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Affairscloud

Financial Express

MEA

Deccan Herald

NDTV

#11 - WK50

Sun, 14 Dec 2025 05:00:13 GMT

Welcome to Week 50.

This week brought an interesting mix of economic diplomacy, cultural politics, and social regulation. The common thread: governments are trying to redefine the “rules of the game” for trade, for what ends up on our plates, and even for how young people use the internet.

On the economic front, India–US trade discussions moved a step further, with both sides signaling intent to deepen cooperation in areas like manufactured goods, services, and possibly digital trade. For India, any progress here is not just about tariffs; it is about securing better access to a large consumer market and encouraging more investment flows into sectors like technology, manufacturing, and services.

From Washington, the focus shifts to Brussels and Berlin, where Europe is debating something that sounds trivial at first: whether plant-based products should be allowed to use meat-like names such as “veggie sausage.” Behind this, however, is a deeper tug-of-war between traditional farming interests, food industry lobbies, and the growing push towards sustainable and plant-based diets. Germany’s opposition in this debate shows how even a relatively progressive, green-leaning economy can still be protective of its long-standing food culture and agricultural sector.

The week’s regulatory theme continues as we move to Australia, where the government is pushing for tighter controls on teenagers’ access to social media. The idea is to protect younger users from addiction, mental health issues, and harmful content, even if that means strong age-verification rules or outright bans for certain age groups. While this is happening far from India and Germany, similar debates are quietly building up in Europe and even in India, where questions around screen time, online safety, and data protection are becoming harder for policymakers to ignore.

Stock Market

The Sensex hovered around the 85,000–85,300 range and finished the week slightly lower, helped by optimism after the US Fed’s rate cut and earlier RBI rate cut, even though foreign investors were still cautious. Overall, it was a calm, sideways-to-mildly-positive week rather than a big breakout move.

The German DAX index closed near 24,200 and managed to gain about 0.7% for the week, marking its third weekly rise in a row. Tech-related worries pulled it down on Friday, but strength in industrials and exporters helped the index stay in positive territory for the week.

EUR/INR traded between 104.5 and 106.4 this week, with the euro ending a bit stronger against the rupee by Friday.

Germany News Roundup

dm Launches Online Pharmacy Amid Controversy, expanding its digital offerings to include over 2500 non-prescription drugs, sparking concerns from the pharmacy association about safety and market boundaries. - Spiegel
Germany’s Aging Population Accelerates Rapidly, by 2034, one in four Germans will be 67 or older, intensifying pressure on social systems despite high immigration projections. - taz
Germany Plans Syrian Refugee Deportations, mirroring 1980s policies for Turkish migrants amid political pressures and ongoing humanitarian concerns, offering financial incentives for voluntary return but facing limited uptake. - The Conversation
Voith Plans Up to 2,500 Job Cuts, aiming to restructure operations amid high costs and regulatory challenges in Germany affecting about 10% of its workforce through a strategic review. - Yahoo Finance
Thyssenkrupp Steel Plants to Suspend Operations, impacting 1,200 jobs due to cheap imports, with French plant running at half capacity from 2026 amid market pressures and restructuring losses. - GMK Center
Germany Pledges €1.3 Bn for India’s Green Growth, boosting climate, energy, urban mobility, and renewable energy skills through concessional loans under the Green and Sustainable Development Partnership. - Outlook Business

India News Roundup

PM Modi’s Strategic Visits to Jordan, Ethiopia, Oman, to enhance diplomatic ties, explore bilateral cooperation, and address regional and global issues during milestone anniversaries with all three nations in December 2025. - PM India
Rahul Gandhi’s Germany Visit Sparks BJP Criticism, as he plans to attend a major Indian Overseas Congress event in Berlin amid ongoing Lok Sabha winter session, drawing BJP’s ridicule for neglecting parliamentary duties. - Economic Times
IndiGo’s Flight Chaos Hurts India’s Aviation Sector, delays and cancellations triggered by poor planning for new crew-rest rules have stranded thousands and damaged the airline’s reputation and finances. - BBC
Cabinet Approves India’s 2027 Digital Census, planned at Rs 11,718 crore, featuring mobile app data collection, caste enumeration, and generating significant employment opportunities across 30 lakh field functionaries. - PMIndia
Siemens Sells Low Voltage Motors Unit to Innomotics India, for ₹2,200 crore, enabling Siemens to boost cash flow for capex amid market pricing pressures. - ICICIdirect
Amazon Pledges $35B Investment in India by 2030, boosting digital transformation, AI for small businesses, exports to $80B, and supporting 3.8 million jobs as part of India’s growth vision. - Times of India
Microsoft Commits $17.5B to India’s AI Growth, to enhance AI infrastructure, skill 20 million workers, and integrate AI in public platforms benefiting over 310 million informal workers by 2029. - Microsoft News
India Expedites Chinese Business Visa Processing, cutting administrative delays to issue visas within four weeks, signaling improved bilateral ties and renewed economic cooperation. - Bombay Samachar

NRI News Roundup

SEBI Allows NRIs Digital KYC from Abroad, enabling overseas investors to complete re-KYC and KYC modifications digitally without physical presence in India, simplifying compliance and saving travel time. - Cafemutual

Opportunity
Carbon Credits for Indian Landowners

Presented by: minus.global

www.minus.global

Carbon credits are essentially certificates that represent the removal or reduction of one tonne of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Companies and governments around the world buy these credits to offset their emissions, creating a market where landowners and farmers can earn additional income.

For Indian farmers and landowners, this opens up an interesting opportunity. If you own land you are already doing work that captures carbon from the air. The challenge has always been: how do you measure this, get it certified, and actually sell those credits in the global market? The process involves complex documentation, verification standards, and access to international buyers – things that individual farmers or landowners typically cannot navigate alone.

This is where platforms like minus.global come in, founded by Mehul Khoont, an Indian enterpreneur living in Hamburg. They work directly with Indian farmers and landowners to handle the technical side: measuring carbon sequestration, getting third-party verification, issuing certificates, and connecting sellers with buyers. Essentially, they act as a bridge between your land and the carbon credit market.

The model is straightforward, you continue your sustainable land practices, minus.global handles the certification process, and you receive payment when credits are sold. For landowners looking to diversify income streams carbon credits represent a growing opportunity that rewards environmental stewardship with real financial returns. If you are interested for more information, contact them at contact@minus.co.in

Watchlist

A recent Value Research analysis caught my attention – three mid-cap stocks that turned ₹10,000 into over ₹3.4 lakh in just five years.

HBL Power Systems operates in defense, railways, and telecom sectors with battery and power solutions, delivering 103% annual returns with solid profit growth above 60% per year.
Gravita India, focused on metal recycling and non-ferrous metals, showed similar returns with a strong growth score of 8 out of 10, though cash conversion remains weak.
PG Electroplast, making components for consumer electronics and air conditioners, gave the highest returns at 105% annually, but recently cut its revenue guidance sharply, raising questions about management credibility.

Checkout entire article on Value Research for detailed information.

Until Next Sunday…

As we close out, there are just 12 days left until Christmas. The holiday season is now in full swing across both hemispheres, markets will start thinning out, offices will gradually empty, and the pace of major policy announcements usually slows down as we head into the final weeks of December.

Next week brings a few important events worth keeping an eye on. The US Federal Reserve will hold its final policy meeting of the year, and the European Central Bank is also expected to announce its December rate decision. These are the last big central bank moves before the year ends, and they often set the tone for how financial markets behave in early January. Beyond that, many companies will enter their quiet period ahead of year-end earnings, so expect fewer big headlines and more year-in-review pieces from analysts and commentators.

As always, if you found value in this week’s newsletter, please share it with your friends, family, and colleagues. The best support you can give us is helping spread these insights to others who might benefit from them. Knowledge grows when shared!

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#10 - WK49

Sun, 07 Dec 2025 05:01:29 GMT

Welcome to Week 49.

Some weeks are defined by single headlines, but this one gave us a mix, high-stakes diplomacy in Delhi, a pension battle in Berlin and flight cancellations chaos.

In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz narrowly averted a government crisis on Friday when the Bundestag passed the controversial pension package. The bill locks pension levels at 48% of average wages until 2031 and allows retirees to earn up to €2,000 tax-free per month if they continue working. Young conservative lawmakers had revolted against the €185 billion package, arguing it unfairly burdens younger generations.

The big headline from India came from Delhi, where Prime Minister Modi broke protocol to personally welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin at Palam Airport on Thursday evening. It was Putin’s first visit to India in four years. In a week when geopolitical tensions continue to simmer globally, India and Russia sat down for their 23rd Annual Summit, reaffirming what they call a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” that has remained resilient despite external pressures.

Source: x.com/narendramodi

Modi and Putin unveiled an ambitious roadmap targeting $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, with Modi confident it could happen even sooner. From defense manufacturing under Make in India to a new 30-day free e-visa for Russian tourists, the agreements signed covered everything that matters for both economies.

But while diplomacy flourished in Delhi, travel plans got complicated. IndiGo, India’s largest airline, cancelled over 1,000 flights on Friday alone. The culprit? A severe pilot shortage triggered by new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules that cap how long pilots can work, especially at night. These regulations were announced way back in January 2024, but IndiGo admitted to DGCA on Thursday that it “failed to anticipate actual crew requirements”. The regulator stepped in Friday, granting IndiGo temporary exemptions from night-duty rules until February 10.

Stock Market

The Sensex had a relatively quiet week, closing at 85,712 points on Friday, almost flat compared to where it started on Monday around 85,706. The real action happened on Friday when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a positive surprise, cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This sparked a rally of 447 points on the day, with banking stocks like SBI and Bajaj Finserv leading the charge. The rate cut signals that the RBI is confident about inflation coming down (they revised their forecast to 2% from 2.6%) while raising growth expectations to 7.3% from 6.8%.

The DAX performed better, closing the week around 24,028 points—marking its second consecutive weekly gain with an increase of approximately 0.8%. The index touched a three-week high on Friday, largely supported by expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

The Euro strengthened against the Rupee this week, moving from ₹104.03 on Monday to a peak of ₹105.22 on Tuesday, the highest rate seen in December so far. The rate then stabilized around ₹104.73 by Friday. The overall trend in 2025 has been favorable for Euro holders, with the EUR/INR rate up about 18% since January when it was trading near ₹88

Germany News Roundup

Bundestag Approves Pension Law with Majority, promising a comprehensive reform to stabilize and strengthen the pension system, with implementation set for January 2026 after Bundesrat approval. - Deutschlandfunk
Siemens Collaborates with Rheinmetall on F-35 Jet, supporting automation and medical tech integration in Rheinmetall’s defense manufacturing, including components for the F-35 fighter jet in Germany. - WELT
VW Converts Dresden Plant into Innovation Campus, transforming the site into a tech hub for AI, robotics, and chip design after ending car production by 2026 with significant investment planned. - Heise
Porsche Considers Shift to Military Production, amid economic challenges in automotive sector, exploring defence investments without formal weapon manufacturing confirmation currently. - The Khyber Mail
Germany Activates Arrow 3 Missile Shield, marking the first deployment outside Israel, enhancing Western Europe’s air defense with advanced long-range interceptors amid rising geopolitical tensions. - DefenseNews
Germany Votes for Voluntary Military Service, introducing a program for all 18-year-old men to support national defense enhancements by 2026, amid public protests and plans to increase Bundeswehr personnel significantly. - BBC
Vulcan Energy Secures €2.2B for German Lithium Project, mobilizing extensive public and private funding to develop first phase lithium extraction from geothermal brine, aiming for sustainable European supply and EV battery production by 2028. - electrive.com
Zeekr Launches Electric Cars in Germany, targeting the German company car sector with three fully equipped EV models, competitive pricing, and extensive service network, aiming to capture commercial fleet users switching to electric vehicles. - ArenaEV
SCHUFA Score to Simplify and Go Online, from 2026, reducing scoring criteria from 250 to 12, enhancing transparency, and allowing free online access and detailed score insights via an account and app. - Iamexpat.de

India News Roundup

India Withdraws Mandate on Pre-Installed Cyber Safety App, following public backlash over privacy concerns, leading smartphone makers to resist the directive to preload the Sanchar Saathi app on new devices. - BBC News
India Offers Free 30-Day E-Visa to Russians, aiming to boost travel and strengthen bilateral ties after Modi-Putin talks and unveiling Vision 2030 for economic cooperation expansion. - India Today
IndiGo Flight Cancellations To Normalize Mid-December, following operational crisis caused by Flight Duty Time Limitations, with full refunds and rescheduling waivers offered for affected passengers amid regulatory intervention. - Hindustan Times
India and Germany Boost Electric Mobility Collaboration, focusing on scalable financing, battery readiness, workforce skills, and integrated national frameworks to advance clean and sustainable transport solutions efficiently. - BioEnergy Times
Adani Plans $5B Investment in Google’s AI Data Center, joining the AI boom by funding a major Google data center project in India to meet rising demand for data capacity and computing power. - The Hindu

Putin’s India Visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a two-day state visit to India on December 4-5, marking his first trip to India in four years.

Key Meetings

Putin’s visit centered around extensive bilateral talks with PM Modi, covering defense, energy, trade, and regional security. The leaders also addressed the India-Russia Business Forum, where both sides discussed accelerating economic cooperation. The summit commemorated 25 years of the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, which began in 2000.

Major Announcements and Agreements

Trade and Economy:

Both countries unveiled a 2030 Economic Cooperation Roadmap with an ambitious target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, PM Modi expressed confidence this could be achieved ahead of schedule
Acceleration of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)
Focus on faster implementation of trade corridors using digital technology to link customs and logistics systems, reducing transit times and costs

Defense and Strategic Cooperation:

Expansion of joint research, co-development, and co-production of defense systems under the Make in India initiative
Continued INDRA joint military exercises and defense technology exchanges
Joint production of spare parts and components for maintaining Russian military equipment in India

People-to-People and Tourism:

Introduction of free 30-day e-Tourist Visa for Russian citizens visiting India on a reciprocal basis
Opening of new Indian Consulates in Yekaterinburg and Kazan to enhance diplomatic presence

Other Key Areas:

Russia officially joined India’s International Big Cat Alliance (IBCA), boosting wildlife conservation cooperation
Over a dozen MoUs signed covering labor mobility, healthcare, maritime training, academia, and media cooperation
Framework established for movement of skilled workers from India to Russia
Cooperation on science, technology, innovation, R&D, start-ups, critical minerals exploration, and digital technologies

Checkout complete list of outcomes at Ministry of External Affairs

The joint statement emphasized that “Russian-Indian relations remain resilient against external pressures” despite the complex geopolitical environment. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership, with Putin inviting Modi to Russia for the 24th India-Russia Annual Summit in 2026.

Opportunity (IN)
India-Russia Defense Manufacturing Play

Putin’s Delhi visit laid the groundwork for something bigger than trade numbers, a formal shift from buyer-seller to joint manufacturing of military hardware and spare parts on Indian soil.

Why This Matters

About 60-70% of India’s military equipment is Russian-origin, Sukhoi jets, T-90 tanks, S-400 missile systems. The problem? Getting spare parts from Russia takes forever, affecting critical defense systems. Friday’s summit directly addresses this by encouraging “joint manufacturing in India of spare parts, components, and aggregates for maintenance of Russian-origin arms and defense equipment under Make-in-India programme through transfer of technology”. The agreement even allows eventual exports to “mutually friendly third countries”.

Who Benefits?

Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) emerges as the star player. Discussions around additional S-400 air defense systems include technology transfer for BDL to locally assemble and produce essential missile components. 1

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) remains the backbone for aircraft production and maintenance. With Russian Sukhoi-30 jets forming the majority of India’s fighter squadrons, HAL’s role becomes even more critical, potentially including joint production of Sukhoi-57 fifth-generation stealth fighters. 2

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders are positioned to benefit from electronics integration and naval collaboration respectively.

The Investment Angle

The Nifty Defence index is up nearly 300% over three years. The real opportunity isn’t just immediate orders, it’s the structural shift to domestic manufacturing with technology transfer, creating annuity-like revenue from spare parts, maintenance, and exports.

Until Next Sunday…

As we wrap up this eventful week, all eyes turn to December 10 when the US Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting. Markets are pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. But here’s the twist, Fed officials are deeply divided, with growing tensions between those worried about a slowing economy and others concerned about sticky inflation.

The outcome could trigger significant volatility across global markets, affecting everything from the dollar index to emerging market flows into India and Germany. Coming right after India’s own surprise rate cut on Friday, next week’s Fed decision will be crucial for currency movements, bond yields, and equity markets as we head into the final stretch of 2025. Keep an eye on Wednesday evening, it could set the tone for your year-end portfolio decisions.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Money Control

Fortune India

#9 - WK48

Sun, 30 Nov 2025 05:00:54 GMT

Welcome to Week 48.

This week, the world seemed to move at two speeds - frenzied and festive.

Black Friday kicked off the global shopping season with Americans alone spending a record $8.6 billion online by early evening, choosing cozy couches and smartphones over braving the cold to queue outside stores. The numbers told the story of how we shop now: mobile devices drove 58.6% of all purchases, and for the first time, AI shopping assistants helped hundreds of thousands navigate deals, ask questions, and build personalized buying guides. Globally, the 24-hour shopping bonanza generated $74.4 billion in online sales, a 5% jump from last year.

While bargain hunters were online, Germany was preparing for something more traditional. Christmas markets across the country began opening their doors this week, filling town squares with the smell of Glühwein, roasted almonds, and gingerbread. From Nuremberg’s iconic Christkindlesmarkt to smaller neighborhood gatherings in Berlin, Munich, and Cologne. For those of us who’ve lived in Germany, these markets are as much about community as commerce, a reminder that some experiences still belong firmly offline.

Halfway across the world, India celebrated a different kind of milestone. Ahmedabad was officially awarded hosting rights for the 2030 Commonwealth Games, marking the first time a single Indian city will host the multi-sport event. With investments already flowing into stadiums, transport, and hospitality, the next five years will reshape Ahmedabad’s urban landscape in ways that echo what we’ve seen in other cities post-Games.

But not all this week’s news was celebratory. Ethiopia’s Dofan volcano erupted in the Afar region, sending lava flows and ash clouds into the sky and forcing thousands to evacuate. The eruption, one of several along the East African Rift this year, was a stark reminder of how geological forces continue to shape lives and livelihoods in vulnerable regions.

As we close out Week 48, these stories “consumerism and tradition” , “ambition and crisis” paint a picture of a world that’s constantly recalibrating. Let’s dive into what happened in markets, policy, and business this week.

Stock Market

The Indian markets had a rollercoaster week, swinging between gains and losses before ending slightly positive. The Sensex started the week around 85,231 points, dropped to 84,587 on Monday amid selling pressure, but then bounced back strongly on Wednesday with a 1,022-point jump. By the end of the week, the index settled around 85,706, showing resilience despite ongoing volatility.

Sector-wise, IT stocks like Infosys , Tech Mahindra and Wipro were the bright spots, gaining ground as the sector showed strength. On the flip side, metals, realty, and pharma stocks dragged the indices lower, with names like JSW Steel , Bharat Electronics , and Tata Steel among the week’s losers.

German markets had a much better week, with the DAX posting gains for four straight sessions. The index climbed from around 23,464 at the start of the week to close near 23,836 by Friday. The positive mood was driven by two main factors: growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, and renewed hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Germany News Roundup

German Parliament Approves Debt-Heavy 2026 Budget, allocating over €180 billion in new debt to boost investments, defence, and Ukraine aid amid economic revival efforts and relaxed debt rules. - Global Banking and Finance Review
Ford Cologne Starts Job Cuts Friday, laying off thousands with severance acceptance beginning at noon, employees received details in a recent meeting. - Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger
Rheinmetall Staff Protest Automotive Division Sale, highlighting demands for secure work conditions amid uncertainties from the proposed divestiture as the company shifts focus to defense manufacturing. - RP Online
Germany Hydrogen Economy Set to Double by 2032, expanding rapidly with new government incentives, large-scale projects, and major investments driving growth in green hydrogen production and infrastructure development. - OpenPR
Germany’s Christmas Markets Open Under Tight Security, offering traditional festive treats and crafts while enhanced anti-terrorism measures ensure visitor safety amid past tragic attacks. - NBC News
Mass Protests Ahead of AfD Youth Wing Launch, the far-right AfD plans to launch a new youth wing amid 50,000 expected protesters in Giessen, raising concerns over extremist ties and democratic values in Germany. - Yahoo News

India News Roundup

Ahmedabad to Host 2030 Centenary Commonwealth Games, signifying India’s landmark role in Commonwealth sport while featuring 15-17 sports and celebrating the centenary with cultural vibrancy and global athletic unity. - Commonwealth Sport
India-China Tensions Flare Over Arunachal Pradesh, a recent incident involving alleged harassment of an Indian from Arunachal Pradesh highlights ongoing disputes over territorial claims and visa legitimacy between the two nations. - Al Jazeera
India Economy Surges 8.2% Despite Tariffs, accelerating growth driven by manufacturing, construction, and domestic consumption amid U.S. tariffs and GST cuts, with GDP outpacing forecasts and robust domestic conditions expected to sustain growth. - CNBC
India Seeks Five More S-400 Squadrons from Russia, to enhance air defence with upgraded missile stocks and MRO facilities amid geopolitical balancing between Russia and the US. - Times of India
India Eyes US Trade Deal Closure by Year-End, expecting to finalize the first tranche despite tariff challenges and aiming to boost bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. - Times of India
India’s New Labour Codes Reshape Workforce, consolidating 29 laws into four codes to streamline compliance, extend benefits to gig workers, and alter salary structures with mixed impacts on job security and take-home pay. - Finshots
Reliance to Build $11bn AI Data Centre in Visakhapatnam, aiming for a 1GW capacity campus by 2030, partnering with Brookfield and Digital Realty to boost India’s AI infrastructure and digital ecosystem. - Yahoo Finance

NRI News Roundup

Indian Diaspora Demands Dual Citizenship Rights, to enhance global stature, economic influence, and security for over 3.5 crore NRIs, urging government action for transformative diaspora engagement and national growth. - New Indian Express

Opportunity
Why Raw Materials Are the Foundation of Tomorrow’s Economy

If you’ve been following headlines about electric vehicles, AI data centers, or renewable energy, you’ve probably heard the buzzwords. But here’s what often gets missed: none of these technologies work without raw materials. No copper, lithium, nickel, or rare earth metals means no energy transition, no EVs, and no AI boom.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Global demand for critical metals is expected to grow at 4.5% annually through 2035, with energy transition materials driving more than half of that growth. Copper demand alone could double by 2040 because every electric vehicle, charging station, wind turbine, solar panel, and data center needs significant amounts of it. Battery metals like lithium are projected to see demand jump 126% between 2025 and 2030. 1 2

Here’s where it gets interesting for investors: supply isn’t keeping up. Mining companies underinvested in new projects over the past decade when commodity prices were low. Now, with demand surging, we’re heading into structural deficits. UBS recently raised its copper deficit forecast for 2025 to 230,000 tonnes and expects it to nearly double to 407,000 tonnes in 2026, four times what they predicted earlier. For lithium, analysts expect a shortfall of 572,000 tonnes by 2034, requiring $116 billion in new investments by 2030 just to meet EV targets. 3 4

Think of it this way: it takes 10-15 years from discovery to production for a major copper mine. Even if companies started digging tomorrow, the supply crunch will persist well into the 2030s.

This classic supply-demand mismatch creates a favorable environment for rising prices. Copper prices need to stay above $10,000 per tonne to incentivize new mine development, and with current prices near $11,000, the market is already pricing in these supply constraints. 5

Germany is at the heart of Europe’s energy transition, heavily investing in renewables, grid infrastructure, and electric mobility. The country’s new infrastructure spending push will consume massive amounts of raw materials. Investing in commodity-focused funds gives you exposure to this structural shift without needing to pick individual mining stocks.

Watchlist

German financial publication DAS INVESTMENT recently analyzed the best-performing commodity equity funds over the past three years. These funds focus on mining stocks (companies that extract and process raw materials), giving investors direct exposure to rising commodity prices.

Some of the standout performers

AGIF Allianz Global Metals and Mining
Bakersteel Global Funds Electrum Fund
Earth Exploration Fund UI

Visit Das Investment for complete list and more information.

What makes these funds attractive right now? Despite strong recent gains, many underlying commodity stocks remain attractively valued compared to the tech sector. With structural demand drivers in place: electrification, AI infrastructure, renewable energy buildout and supply struggling to catch up, the fundamental case for commodities remains intact for the medium to long term.

A word of caution: Commodity funds can be volatile, especially when tied to cyclical industries like mining. These are best suited for investors with a 3-5 year horizon who believe in the energy transition story and can stomach short-term price swings. For those investing from Germany, check if your broker offers these funds and review the TER (total expense ratio) before committing.

Until Next Sunday…

As November closes, December brings a few important markers worth keeping on your radar.

In India, e-commerce platform Meesho is reportedly preparing for its much-anticipated IPO, which could be one of the largest Indian tech listings since Zomato and Nykaa in 2021. The company, which focuses on tier-2 and tier-3 cities and has become a favorite among small sellers and budget-conscious shoppers, will test investor appetite for consumer internet businesses after a two-year dry spell. If priced right, this could open the door for other unicorns waiting on the sidelines.

On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India in early December for bilateral talks with Prime Minister Modi. The visit comes at a sensitive time, with the Ukraine conflict still ongoing and Western pressure on India to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and defense equipment. For markets, watch how this plays out, India has walked a careful diplomatic line, maintaining ties with both Moscow and Washington, and any announcements around trade, energy deals, or defense cooperation could have implications for rupee-dollar dynamics and commodity flows.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

#8 - WK47

Sun, 23 Nov 2025 05:01:38 GMT

Welcome to Week 47. This week in Germany, a heated debate has erupted over the government’s new pension reform plans (known as “Rentenpaket II”). In simple terms, the government wants to guarantee that retirees continue to receive at least 48% of the average wage until 2039. To fund this, they plan to increase the pension contributions deducted from your monthly salary.

However, young political leaders, specifically from the “Junge Union” (youth wing of the CDU/CSU) are fiercely opposing this. They argue that this deal unfairly burdens the younger working population, who will be forced to pay significantly higher contributions today without a guarantee that the system will be sustainable when they retire.

On a positive note, starting January 2026, many people in basic utility contracts will see noticeable relief on their electricity and gas bills. According to comparison portal Verivox, around 113 regional basic suppliers have announced electricity price cuts averaging 9%, which translates to savings of about €161 per year for a household consuming 4,000 kilowatt-hours annually. The reductions are primarily driven by government subsidies for grid fees, which suppliers are passing on to customers.

On November 18, Cloudflare suffered a major global outage lasting several hours, affecting popular services like X, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The culprit? A bug in their Bot Management feature that consumed excessive CPU resources and brought down core network traffic worldwide. This comes after we’ve seen similar outages from Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft’s Azure in recent times. The reality is sobering: just a handful of massive cloud and content delivery providers essentially run the internet’s backbone, and when one of them goes down websites, apps, and critical services across the globe can grind to a halt within minutes. It’s a stark reminder of how concentrated and vulnerable our digital infrastructure has become.

Stock Market

This was a solid week for Indian markets. The Sensex added 669 points, rising 0.79% to close at 85,231, its highest weekly close since September 2024. The index is now just 1% away from its all-time high. Banking and financial stocks led the gains, with several major banks hitting strong numbers. For the year so far, the Sensex is now up about 9%.

The DAX had a rough week, falling 3.29% to close around 23,090. The index dropped from a high of 23,512 earlier in the week to its lowest point at 22,943 on Friday. Major German companies across energy, technology, and banking sectors pulled the index down as concerns about slowing manufacturing growth continued. Despite this weekly drop, the DAX is still up around 15% for this year overall.

Germany News Roundup

MAN Cuts 2300 Jobs Amid Auto Industry Decline, as Germany’s automotive sector loses nearly 50,000 jobs due to global pressures, high costs, and increased competition, impacting multiple key industrial areas. - heise.de
Deutsche Bahn Faces Worsening Railway Infrastructure Crisis, with aging network, increased construction, and declining punctuality projected to continue impacting passengers and operations in coming years. - Aviation.Direct
SPD Proposal Threatens Purchase on Account, potentially disrupting German online commerce by introducing postal confirmation and waiting periods, risking consumer convenience and market stability. - Eulerpool
Bosch Faces Production Issues Amid Chip Relief Hopes, the company continues to struggle with manufacturing delays despite anticipated improvements in semiconductor supply. - Autonews
Pension Dispute Threatens Germany’s Coalition Stability, as young conservative MPs oppose costly pension guarantees, risking legislative deadlock and highlighting generational financial burdens in Germany’s aging population. - The Guardian
Stuttgart 21 Rail Project Delayed Again, postponed beyond December 2026 due to digital signaling system issues and other challenges, Deutsche Bahn has yet to set a new opening date. - DW
Parfümerie Pieper Files for Insolvency Protection, continuing all operations with over 120 stores open and wages secured for three months during restructuring efforts under self-administration. - wn.de

India News Roundup

India’s Trade Deficit Hits Record $41.68 Billion, driven by soaring gold imports and falling exports amid US tariffs, worsening trade balance in October 2024. - Economic Times
India-Germany Strengthen Defence Partnership, focusing on co-development, military cooperation, and Germany’s participation in major multinational exercises in 2026. - PIB
India Considers Lifting Ban on Rheinmetall AG, this move signals potential renewal of defense cooperation, including a prospective multi-billion Euro submarine deal enhancing India-Germany strategic ties. - Times Now News
Reliance Retail Brings Essence Cosmetics to India, partnering with Germany’s cosnova to distribute Europe’s top makeup brand exclusively across key Indian beauty stores and expanding its footprint in the beauty sector. - Storyboard18

NRI News Roundup

Submit SIR Enumeration Form Online Now, to participate in India’s Special Intensive Revision of voter lists by filling and submitting forms digitally if not received physically, with guidelines for NRIs and others. - Onmanorama
Best Term Life Insurance For NRIs in 2025, offers affordable, flexible policies ensuring global coverage, easy online purchase, and financial security for families in India with tax benefits and strong regulation. - SugerMint

Opportunity

Rheinmetall held its Capital Markets Day on November 18, 2025, unveiling an ambitious roadmap that positions the company as Europe’s leading defense contractor. Here’s why this presents a compelling investment opportunity for readers.

Rheinmetall expects sales to grow from €9.8 billion in 2024 to approximately €50 billion by 2030, representing over 5x growth in just six years.

The Big Picture

Europe is rearming at an unprecedented scale. Germany alone plans to increase defense spending from €50.2 billion in 2024 to approximately €180 billion by 2030, aiming to meet NATO’s 3.5% GDP target. This massive spending increase stems from real security concerns, Danish defense intelligence warns of potential regional conflict in the Baltic within two years and large-scale European war within five years.

What They’re Building

The company is investing over €8 billion in the next five years to expand capacity across five key segments with sales target by 2030

Vehicle Systems (€13-15 billion target)
Weapon and Ammunition (€14-16 billion target)
Air Defense (€3-4 billion target)
Digital (€8-10 billion target)
Naval (€5 billion target)

Why This Matters for Investors

The investment case is straightforward: guaranteed government demand, multi-year contracts with €350 billion in German commitment appropriations beyond 2035, and industry-leading profitability growth. Rheinmetall maintains strong balance sheet discipline with planned dividends of €8.10 per share for 2024 (expected to rise further) while investing aggressively in growth.

Checkout Presentation

With European security concerns escalating and governments committed to long-term rearmament, Rheinmetall stands at the center of a historic defense spending cycle that’s just beginning.

Watchlist (IN)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway filed its Q3 2025 portfolio update in mid‑November, and there were a few interesting shifts compared to last quarter.

Berkshire opened a new position in Alphabet worth around 4–4.3 billion dollars, making it roughly the 10th‑largest holding in the portfolio right away.
At the same time, Berkshire continued trimming two of its long‑time giants, Apple and Bank of America, reducing both stakes further.
Berkshire also fully exited its position in homebuilder D.R. Horton, which had been a relatively new bet in the housing space.

If interested, checkout Morningstar article for all changes made in Q3 2025.

Until Next Sunday…

Looking ahead, the next begins with SPS Nuremberg (November 25–27), Europe’s largest industrial automation and smart manufacturing exhibition, where over 1,000 exhibitors will showcase everything from robotics to AI‑driven factory systems. If you’re interested in the digital transformation of German manufacturing, or simply wondering how our factories will keep pace with global competition, this event might be for you.

As always, if you found value in this week’s newsletter, please share it with your friends, family, and colleagues. The best support you can give us is helping spread these insights to others who might benefit from them. Knowledge grows when shared!

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.