In India, July 1st marked the end of MGNREGA, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a scheme that has been a fixture of Indian policy life since 2005. For over two decades, it was the safety net that tens of millions of rural households fell back on: a guaranteed 100 days of paid work a year, funded almost entirely by the central government. In its peak years it absorbed the labour of more than five crore families providing income during lean seasons, between harvests, when nothing else was available. From this week, it is gone.

In its place comes VB-G RAM G, the Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin). The name is a mouthful; the changes are significant. The new scheme raises the guaranteed workdays from 100 to 125 per household per year and sets a floor wage of ₹300 a day, a meaningful increase for the 21 states where wages had been below that level. The government has framed this as a modernisation: better wages, direct bank transfers and digital oversight. The allocation stands at ₹95,692 crore for the coming year.

Seven thousand kilometres away in Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was also reaching for a reset, one that had been a long time coming.

On Thursday, after seven hours of coalition talks in the Chancellery garden, the CDU/CSU-SPD government announced what it called the “Programme for Revival and Employment”: 34 separate measures aimed at shaking Germany’s economy out of a years-long slump. The package includes roughly €10 billion in annual income tax relief for lower and middle-income earners, amounting to about €600 more per year for an average family, funded by raising taxes on those earning above €250,000. The pension system is to be overhauled in line with all 33 recommendations of a government-appointed commission.

The measure that has generated the most immediate reaction is arguably the smallest in scale but the most personal in impact: the end of sick leave by telephone. Since the pandemic, German workers had been able to get a sick note from their doctor by phone, without an in-person visit. That option is now abolished. From early next year, a doctor’s certificate will be required from the very first day of absence, not the fourth, as has been the norm. Merz has spoken repeatedly about what he called Germany’s “extraordinarily high” sick leave rates. Whether tightening the paperwork will change that, or simply add friction and frustration to workers who are genuinely unwell, is a debate that is only just beginning.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 77,763.91, up 1.35% from last week. Markets opened cautiously on Monday, June 29, weighed down by renewed Iran-US conflict tensions that pushed crude oil prices higher. Auto, IT, and PSU banking stocks came under pressure early in the week, while Pharma, Healthcare, and Metal sectors held up as defensive gainers, with names like Dr. Reddy’s, Trent, and Coal India leading the advance.

The DAX surged to 25,779.31, gaining 4.49% from last week, marking one of its stronger weekly performances. The index climbed steadily through the week. Cyclical and industrial stocks led the rally, aided by expectations that US interest rate hikes would be delayed rather than imminent, which lifted broader European sentiment. The move also coincided with Germany’s ruling coalition unveiling a growth-focused economic reform package, including tax relief measures, which added a supportive domestic backdrop to the market’s advance.

Germany News Roundup

• Germany’s coalition agreed on a major growth package on July 2, marking one of the week’s biggest policy headlines.

• Volkswagen was reported to be weighing another round of job cuts as pressure on the auto sector continued.

• Infineon opened a new semiconductor plant in Dresden, strengthening Germany’s push to rebuild chip manufacturing capacity.

• German industry leaders continued pushing for faster reforms as growth remained weak and production costs stayed high.

• Middle East tensions continued to influence German industry, especially through energy prices and supply-chain effects.

India News Roundup

• India lifted restrictions on petrol and diesel sales from July 1 after global supply disruption concerns eased.

• India’s industrial output rose 5.1% in May, helped by electricity growth, while manufacturing stayed softer because of West Asia supply disruptions.

• Reuters reported that India’s gasoline and diesel consumption rose in June, showing steady transport fuel demand.

• Zerodha plans to enter investment banking and has sought Sebi registration, marking a notable shift in India’s broker landscape.

• Monsoon deficit reached 43% and June was the driest since 2009, keeping weather and farm-linked issues in the spotlight.

Opportunity

Pictet's AI-Enhanced ETF

Pictet Asset Management, a 221-year-old Swiss institution that has never been known for making noise made a notable move this week. On July 1st, it launched four AI-powered, actively managed equity ETFs on Xetra (Germany) and Euronext (Italy), each carrying a name and ticker that signals exactly what it aims to do: use artificial intelligence to slightly but consistently beat the market. The four funds cover global equities (PQWD), global equities ex-US (PQWX), US equities (PQUS), and European equities (PQEU). The logic behind them is neither glamorous nor complicated, the AI scores roughly 1,200 stocks monthly, makes hundreds of small overweight and underweight bets simultaneously, and aims to collectively squeeze out about 1% extra return per year above the benchmark index.

The precedent that Pictet points to is the Quest AI-Driven Global Equities fund, which uses the same AI engine and has been running since March 2024. That fund returned 50% in the period up to May 2026, compared to 45.9% for the MSCI World over the same period, a 4.1 percentage point lead, net of fees, over roughly 26 months. The model is retrained every quarter on at least a decade’s worth of clean data, and human quantitative experts retain oversight at every stage. The strategy is available to retail investors through these UCITS ETF wrappers, listed directly on Xetra and accessible through most German brokerage accounts, including Scalable Capital, Trade Republic, and ING.

Read more about this in dasinvestment.com

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

Next week’s attention turns to two live wires. In India, the clock on trade talks with Washington keeps ticking, the July 24th tariff deadline is now barely three weeks away, with no deal yet signed, and the monsoon’s fragile revival will be closely watched as the IMD releases fresh rainfall data that could shift the outlook for crops and food prices. In Germany, the dust settles on Chancellor Merz’s reform package, but the real verdict won’t come from economists, it will come on September 6th, when Saxony-Anhalt goes to the polls with the AfD sitting at 41 percent.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

What India wants is straightforward: preferential tariff rates that give its exporters in textiles, pharmaceuticals, technology, a competitive edge over rivals like Vietnam. What the US wants is market access, movement on digital trade rules, and reduced non-tariff barriers that have long frustrated American companies trying to sell in India. The Modi-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit just two weeks ago in France injected fresh political momentum. Whether that momentum translates into an interim deal before July 24th remains the open question.

Meanwhile in Germany, a quieter but equally consequential countdown is ending. At midnight on June 30th, this Tuesday, the government’s two-month fuel tax rebate expires. Since May 1st, the so-called Tankrabatt had been shaving roughly 17 cents off every litre of petrol and diesel, introduced as an emergency response to the surge in energy prices triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The relief cost the federal budget an estimated €1.6 billion.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 77,100.47, up 0.39% from last week’s close of 76,802.90, marking its third consecutive weekly gain. The week was not without turbulence — markets dipped sharply on Monday (June 23) as the index fell nearly 893 points to 76,200 before recovering strongly through the week. The key driver behind the recovery was a significant fall in crude oil prices following the US-Iran peace process. On the flip side, IT stocks were a notable drag, after global tech giant Accenture issued a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook and warned of a $400 million hit to its Middle East business, sending Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, and Wipro lower. Defence, pharma, and broader mid- and small-cap stocks helped cushion the week’s gains, while Reliance Industries drew attention after announcing plans to file for Jio Platforms’ IPO.

The DAX closed the week at 24,671.22, down 1.26% from last week’s close of 24,985.82, with the index sliding below the key 25,000 level during the week. The biggest blow came on Tuesday (June 23) when Germany’s Flash Composite PMI dropped to 48.0, the lowest in 18 months, confirming a third straight month of economic contraction, driven by a sharp decline in the services sector, which fell to a 43-month low of 46.8. A broader global tech selloff, which also hit Asian and US markets, compounded the selling pressure in Frankfurt. While Germany’s manufacturing segment held slightly above 50, providing limited support, weak new business orders and deepening services stress kept sentiment negative through the week.

Germany News Roundup

• Germany's services sector continues to be the biggest drag on the economy, with both activity and new orders declining at accelerated rates in June.

• Germany's PMI data confirmed the economy contracted for the 3rd consecutive month in June, keeping political pressure high on the ruling coalition.

• Germany's growth of 0.5% in 2026 makes it one of the slowest-growing major economies in Europe, limiting near-term equity upside.

• Germany's expert pension commission delivered 33 reform recommendations to Chancellor Merz on June 23, including gradually raising the retirement age beyond 67

• Volkswagen is weighing another round of large-scale job cuts, according to a June 26 AFP report, as the auto giant continues to struggle with slowing EV demand and high production costs in Germany.

India News Roundup

• ISRO successfully hot-tested its semi-cryogenic engine power head on June 24 at Mahendragiri, Tamil Nadu, a key milestone for India's next-generation launch vehicle program.

• India conducted its first satellite-based jet aircraft landing (GAGAN system) at Udaipur airport on June 27, marking a leap in aviation safety tech.

• Indian Navy commissioned three indigenously built vessels — INS Dunagiri, INS Agray, and INS Sanshodhak at Kolkata's GRSE shipyard on June 22.

• India initiated an anti-dumping investigation into steel imports from China, Japan, and Russia, signaling protection of domestic steel industry.facebook

• West Bengal set to table a Uniform Civil Code Bill on June 29, making it a politically significant legislative session.

Opportunity

NSE IPO

You Can Now Own a Piece of India’s Stock Market Itself

“Every time someone in India buys or sells a stock, NSE earns a fee. What if you could be on the other side of that?”

Most investors spend their lives buying stocks on the National Stock Exchange. This December, for the first time, you may be able to buy a stock of the National Stock Exchange.

On June 17, 2026, NSE, India’s largest stock exchange and the world’s biggest equity derivatives exchange, filed its 607-page Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with SEBI, formally beginning the process for what could become the largest IPO in Indian stock market history.

Why This IPO Is Different From the Rest

It is not raising fresh money. The IPO is entirely an Offer for Sale, meaning existing shareholders like SBI, Canada Pension Plan (CPPIB), and Singapore’s Temasek are selling a small portion of their stakes. NSE itself gets none of the IPO money. This is a pure liquidity event for long-held institutional stakes. Importantly LIC, NSE’s largest shareholder with 10.72% stake is not selling, suggesting long-term confidence in the business.

It is a near-monopoly. NSE controls close to 100% of India’s equity derivatives market by volume, a position it has held unchallenged since the early 2000s. No competing exchange has managed to take meaningful market share in F&O. This is the kind of structural moat that investors pay a premium for.

The financials are exceptional with one catch. With ₹10,302 crore in net profit and over 50% net margins on zero debt, NSE reads like a dream investment. However, FY26 profit fell 15.5% from FY25’s ₹12,188 crore. The reason? SEBI tightened F&O trading rules in October 2024, which reduced speculative options volumes, NSE’s biggest revenue driver. The honest question every investor must ask is: Was FY26 a temporary dip, or the start of a new normal?

Things to Watch Before Applying

• 🕐 Timing: SEBI will take 30–75 days to review the DRHP. The IPO is expected to open for subscription around September–October 2026.

• 📊 Valuation: Current grey market pricing implies a valuation of ~₹5 lakh crore, or about 48–50x FY26 earnings. That is not cheap, but for a monopoly infrastructure asset, many analysts consider it fair.

• ⚠️ Risk: If SEBI further restricts F&O activity in future, NSE’s revenue could fall further. Keep this in mind as a regulatory risk unique to this investment.

• 📰 Decade-Long Wait: NSE first tried to list in 2016. It was blocked due to governance concerns (the “co-location controversy”). NSE settled the matter with SEBI in June 2025 by paying ₹1,388 crore, the largest-ever SEBI settlement. The IPO path is now clear.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

India is in a moment of quiet confidence. GDP at 7.7%, crude oil falling, a once-in-a-generation IPO wave building, and the government commissioning warships while signing trade deals. There is a real sense that India is no longer waiting for the world, it is setting its own pace.

Germany, on the other hand, is at an honest crossroads. The country that built its identity on engineering excellence had its entire train network shut down by a scheduled software update on a 30-year-old communication system. The same week, its industrial lobby cut the GDP forecast, services entered recession, and the pension system came under its biggest reform pressure in a generation.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

On June 15, the Noida International Airport at Jewar officially opened for commercial operations, quietly rewriting the map of North India’s connectivity. IndiGo flew the inaugural route in from Lucknow. What looks like a ribbon-cutting ceremony on the surface is something far larger underneath, a ₹11,200 crore greenfield project designed to absorb the overflow from Delhi’s increasingly strained Indira Gandhi International Airport, and eventually scale to 70 million passengers a year. That is bigger than the current annual throughput of major European hubs. The airport is built under a public-private partnership with Zurich Airport International.

The same day, something rather different was happening off the Odisha coast. India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation quietly but decisively fired its Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile, the LRLACM from Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam Island, and every mission objective was met. The missile, entirely indigenous in design, is reported to be capable of reaching targets approaching 1,000 kilometres away with a 450-kg warhead. It flies low, navigating terrain, making it difficult to detect or intercept. What this test marks is not just a technical achievement but a shift in posture: the Indian Navy and Air Force were both present at the launch, signalling that this is being developed as a tri-service weapon land, sea, and air will all eventually carry it.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, at BER Airport in Berlin, the ILA 2026 aerospace exhibition had just wrapped up, an event that in previous editions was mostly about fighter jets and commercial aviation, but this year signalled a changing of the guard. Drones dominated. For the first time in the show’s 117-year history, ILA introduced a dedicated Drone Pavilion, with live demonstrations and a cage where unmanned systems flew in real time before audiences. The message from Berlin was clear: the future of aerospace is not a pilot in a helmet; it is a drone on a screen. Defence spending across Europe is rising sharply, and what gets built matters, ILA 2026 was as much a policy statement as a trade fair.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 76,802.90, up 1.69%, a gain of roughly 1,275 points. The week started strong, riding a wave of relief after the US and Iran agreed to a framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, June 15, which sent crude oil prices sharply lower and boosted risk appetite globally. Markets extended gains across Monday through Thursday, with Sensex touching 77,410 intraday on Thursday, before Friday saw a reversal, Sensex fell 607 points on the final session as IT stocks sold off and global cues turned cautious. The key drivers this week were energy price relief from the Iran ceasefire deal, BFSI and Auto sector gains, and broader market participation with midcaps and smallcaps outperforming benchmarks on several sessions.

The DAX closed the week at 24,985.82, gaining 1.42% over last week's close of 24,635.30. German equities were lifted early in the week by two back-to-back positive developments: the US-Iran ceasefire opening the Strait of Hormuz, which eased energy price fears for Europe's energy-import-heavy economy, and Germany's ZEW Investor Sentiment Index turning positive for the first time since March at +10.5, beating expectations of -6.0.

Germany News Roundup

• Industrial Orders Fell 3.8% in April: German manufacturing orders dropped 3.8% in April after a March spike driven by pre-Iran war stockpiling, pointing to volatile industrial demand ahead.

• Industrial Output Stagnates: German industrial production rose just 0.4% in April — still approximately 12% below pre-pandemic levels — leaving Europe’s largest economy on shaky ground.

• Automotive Sector Rebounds in ZEW: The automotive industry’s sentiment balance rose 21.9 points in June, while chemicals and mechanical engineering also improved, though all sectors remain in negative territory.

• Uniper Eyes Stock Market Listing: Uniper, Germany’s state-rescued energy giant, is preparing for a potential stock market listing while a Canadian investor consortium also considers acquiring a majority stake.

• Refugee Deportation Rules Discussed: Germany’s regional interior ministers held their biannual conference with immigration, deportations, and asylum benefits topping the agenda on June 17.

• September State Elections Loom: Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be a critical test for Germany’s political centre.

India News Roundup

• Defence Production Record: India’s defence production hit a historic high under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, with the Indian Army also receiving 106 Peacekeeper (Agniveg) jet-powered kamikaze drones from SMPP.

• Sarvam AI Hits Unicorn Status: Sarvam AI became India’s 130th unicorn after raising USD 234 million, emerging as a key player in India’s domestic AI infrastructure push.

• Wind Energy Portal Launched: Union Minister Pralhad Joshi launched the WT-MARUT portal to strengthen India’s wind energy supply chain, targeting a 100 GW wind capacity by 2030.

• India-Canada FTA by End of 2026: India and Canada aim to finalise a Free Trade Agreement by end-2026, which could open significant new investment and trade corridors.

• FPIs Pull ₹62,800 Crore in June: Foreign portfolio investors pulled out a massive ₹62,800 crore from Indian equities in June amid global portfolio rotation toward AI-linked assets.

• Telegram Blocked in India: The Centre blocked Telegram under India's cyber censorship law amid the NEET (UG) re-examination to prevent paper leak risks

Opportunity

India’s Defence Sector

For decades, India was one of the world’s largest arms importers. That story is changing fast and it is creating one of the most compelling investment opportunities in Indian markets right now.

India’s defence production crossed ₹1.78 lakh crore (approx. €19.5 billion) in FY26, up 15.6% from the previous year and more than 110% higher than just five years ago. This isn’t just a government statistic, it is visible in the stock market. The Nifty India Defence Index surged nearly 9% in just five trading sessions between June 13–19, with companies like HAL, BEL, Bharat Dynamics, Aequs and Zen Technologies leading the rally.

What is driving this boom?

Three forces are working together:

• 🏛️ Government spending: India’s Defence Ministry received ₹7.85 lakh crore in the Union Budget FY27, a 15% year-on-year increase, with 75% earmarked for indigenous procurement.

• 🌍 Surging exports: India’s defence exports hit ₹38,424 crore in FY26, with the government targeting ₹50,000 crore by FY29. Deals with Armenia, the Philippines and other nations are already signed.

• 🔓 FDI liberalisation: In January 2026, India raised the automatic FDI route limit in defence to 74%, making it easier for foreign firms to co-invest and co-produce with Indian manufacturers.

📊 Instruments to Consider

ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)

• Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence ETF

• Groww Nifty India Defence ETF

• Mirae Asset Nifty India Defence ETF

Index Funds

• Aditya Birla Sun Life Nifty India Defence Index Fund

• Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund

• HDFC Nifty India Defence Index Fund

Active Mutual Funds

• HDFC Defence Fund

• Invesco India PSU Equity Fund (defence + PSU blend)

ETF Fund of Funds (FoF) (for those who prefer MF route over Demat)

• Groww Nifty India Defence ETF FoF

Key Stocks Within These Funds

• Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Data Patterns (India), Astra Microwave Products, Zen Technologies

⚠️ Defence is a high-risk, thematic sector. A 15–20% portfolio allocation is considered prudent. These are not buy/sell recommendations, please consult your financial advisor before investing.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

This Sunday, June 21, millions of people across the world, including hundreds gathering in Hamburg and Munich will roll out their yoga mats to mark the 12th International Day of Yoga, this year themed "Yoga for Healthy Ageing." It is a small but telling reminder that India's influence in Germany is not limited to trade flows and defence contracts, it shows up in parks, community halls, and city squares too.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

And yet, the very institution that should be celebrating, the Reserve Bank of India chose caution over applause. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral monetary policy stance, citing rising risks from the prolonged West Asia conflict, elevated energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and weather-related uncertainties. What that essentially means: borrowing costs stay where they are. The RBI is watching, waiting, and not quite ready to declare the good times fully here. It also revised the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year downward to 6.6% from 6.9%, while raising its inflation projection to 5.1%. The message from Mint Street was careful and deliberate, we are growing, but the road ahead has potholes we can’t yet see clearly.

For anyone tracking jobs, markets, or the cost of everyday goods, that combination, strong past performance, cautious future outlook is worth paying attention to. It means Indian companies will be making conservative plans, consumers may not see loan rates fall anytime soon, and the rupee’s recent weakness continues to ripple through import costs.

Across the world in Europe, a different kind of inflection point was quietly ticking toward its deadline. The European Union’s most comprehensive reform of its Common European Asylum System (CEAS), comprising eleven legislative acts was due for implementation across all member states by June 12, 2026, with the same rules on asylum procedures set to apply uniformly across the bloc for the first time. The idea, years in the making, was to replace a patchwork of national systems with something coherent: faster decisions, border screenings, a solidarity mechanism between countries, and mandatory identity checks. The reform essentially aims to improve control at the external borders, with swift border procedures for people with poor prospects of remaining in Germany and clearly defined responsibilities replacing the dysfunctional Dublin System.

Whether it works as intended is a separate question. Several EU member states had not yet fully incorporated the new requirements into their national legal frameworks by the rollout date, with numerous outstanding IT issues still needing months of work to resolve. What is certain is that this reshapes how Europe manages migration and migration policy, whether one agrees with the direction or not, shapes labour markets, housing pressure, and the daily texture of life in German cities and beyond.

Speaking of rules that arrived late: also this week, the EU Pay Transparency Directive, which required employers across Europe to disclose salary ranges and close the gender pay gap hit its transposition deadline of June 7, and Germany missed it. The old rules remain in place for now. Under the new directive, job applicants would have been entitled to salary information before interviews, and employees would have gained the right to compare their pay against colleagues, broken down by gender changes that Germany’s own data suggests are long overdue, given that the country’s unadjusted gender pay gap sat at 18% in 2024, one of the highest in Europe.

Three stories, three different timelines, India building momentum while staying alert, Europe rewriting the rules on who gets in, and Germany still sorting out whether it believes in equal pay on paper and in practice. That is Week 24. Let’s get into it.

Stock Market

India's GDP expanded 7.8% in Q4 FY26, lifting full-year growth to 7.7% and markets spent most of the week digesting what that means alongside the RBI's cautious response. The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and revised its growth forecast for the current fiscal year down to 6.6%, while raising its inflation projection to 5.1%, citing risks from the prolonged West Asia conflict, elevated energy prices, and supply-chain disruptions. The real push came on Friday, when a global rally fuelled by optimism around a looming US-Iran deal lifted the Sensex 2.29%, with broad-based gains led by banking, financial, realty, auto, and consumer stocks. Bajaj Finance surged 5.6%, Larsen & Toubro gained 4.9%, and Tata Motors added 4.1%, while the IT sector lagged with Tech Mahindra slipping 2.2%.

Germany's DAX had a turbulent week before clawing back ground on the final day. On Wednesday, June 10, the DAX fell 0.97% to close near 24,195, its lowest since mid-May driven by renewed global technology sector weakness, energy-sector disappointments, and broader pressure from elevated Middle East tensions and rising US inflation. Commerzbank fell over 2%, reflecting concerns about credit quality in Germany's corporate loan book amid a contracting economy and high energy costs. Friday brought relief: the DAX jumped nearly 2% as President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and indicated a peace deal could be imminent, pushing oil prices lower. Deutsche Bank led gains at 6.6%, followed by HeidelbergCement and Siemens Energy.

Germany News Roundup

• Fuel Price Cap: Germany implemented the new "Noon Price Rule" alongside the end of tax cuts to stabilize volatile fuel market rates.

• Balkan Investment Push: Germany and France launched a joint Western Balkans initiative at the Montenegro EU summit to fast-track economic integration.

• Aviation Safety: DLR developed "Hawkeye," a data-driven cockpit application designed to help pilots instantly select alternate airports during emergencies.

• Energy Transformation: Germany introduced historic local energy-sharing regulations allowing citizens to sell surplus solar power directly to neighbors.

• Drone Integration: Germany launched the "Swarming" project to research how multiple uncrewed ground and aerial vehicles can be controlled from a single command center.

• Transit Strategy: Deutsche Bahn launched a competitive €99.99 Family Ticket to boost national rail transit and travel business revenues

India News Roundup

• PM Milestone: The Union Cabinet passed a 7-point resolution congratulating Narendra Modi on completing 4,399 continuous days as India's longest-serving elected PM

• Defence Tech: The Ministry of Defence signed a ₹449 crore contract with Accord Software to procure indigenous ECGNSS Jammers for the Indian Navy.

• IPO Surge: Reliance Jio and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) are preparing for blockbuster IPO filings to revive the primary fundraising market.

• SME Listings: Leapfrog Engineering and Clay Craft scheduled their respective ₹88.51 Cr and ₹110.11 Cr SME IPO launches for mid-June.

• Textile Expansion: The Ministry of Textiles targets doubling India’s domestic textile market to ₹33 lakh crore by FY31, creating nearly 2 crore new jobs.

• Corporate Lifeline: Aditya Birla Group announced an infusion of ₹4,730 crore into debt-ridden Vodafone Idea via convertible warrants for network expansion.

Opportunity

FCNR(B) Deposit

Something unusual happened in Indian banking this week, and it flew under the radar for most people outside the financial world. On June 8, the Reserve Bank of India quietly opened a three-month window running until September 30, 2026, that could allow overseas Indians to earn returns on dollar deposits that have no parallel in conventional fixed income anywhere in the world right now.

The instrument at the centre of it is called an FCNR(B) deposit shorthand for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposit. In plain terms, it is a fixed deposit held in Indian banks, denominated in foreign currency dollars, euros, pounds so the money goes in and comes back out in the same currency, without any rupee exchange risk to the depositor.

What the RBI did this week

The trigger for this week’s excitement was the RBI’s decision to absorb the entire cost of hedging currency risk on behalf of banks estimated at around 3 to 3.5% for all fresh FCNR(B) deposits mobilised between June 8 and September 30, 2026. This is the key move. Normally, when an Indian bank takes in dollar deposits and deploys them in a rupee economy, it has to pay a significant cost to insure itself against currency movements. By picking up that cost entirely, the RBI effectively allowed banks to pass much higher returns to depositors.

The banks responded almost immediately. The RBI circular allows banks to mobilise fresh FCNR(B) deposits with tenures ranging from three to five years. Deposits under the scheme carry a one-year lock-in period. AU Small Finance Bank is offering up to 7.1% on five-year US dollar deposits, among the highest rates in the market. YES Bank has revised its peak USD FCNR(B) deposit rate to 6.6% for five-year deposits. ICICI Bank and Axis Bank raised interest rates on FCNR(B) deposits to as high as 6% for deposits with maturities of three to five years, matching the peak rate with SBI and HDFC Bank.

To put that in context: five-year US Treasury notes currently yield around 4.3%, meaning some Indian banks are offering a premium of nearly three percentage points to attract NRI funds. This is a bank deposit, guaranteed principal, foreign currency denomination, no stock market volatility paying meaningfully more than US government bonds.

The leverage angle: where returns become extraordinary

The story does not stop at headline deposit rates. The RBI has also signalled openness to banks providing standby letters of credit to lenders who finance deposit customers. This means depositors can potentially borrow against their own FCNR(B) deposits abroad at lower rates, and use that borrowed capital to place even more into the high-yielding deposits amplifying returns significantly.

Why is the RBI doing this?

This is not charity. India’s rupee has been under pressure from elevated crude oil prices and global supply-chain disruptions. The RBI wants to bring in fresh dollar inflows to bolster foreign exchange reserves and ease pressure on the currency. The playbook is borrowed from 2013, when a similar scheme attracted over $34 billion and helped stabilise the rupee during a global emerging-market sellout.

What to keep in mind

The scheme is available only until September 30, 2026, a genuine three-month window. Deposits must be held for at least one year. The returns are in dollars, which removes rupee depreciation risk for the principal, but taxes in your country of residence still apply and must be factored in. Smaller banks are offering higher rates precisely because they have more ground to cover in building an NRI deposit base, which means slightly more counterparty consideration compared to large public-sector lenders.

This opportunity is uncommon enough that it is worth speaking to a financial advisor familiar with NRI investment structures before acting. But the underlying setup, an RBI-backed window, a short eligibility period, and dollar returns materially above US Treasuries, is the kind of thing that rarely surfaces in fixed income.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

Navigating the fast-moving business world requires a fine balance between tracking big headlines and recognizing the quieter, everyday shifts right beneath the surface. This week has shown that true success isn't about predicting every market twist and turn, but rather about staying flexible and adapting to change as it happens.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

In secret ballots cast by member states for the Western European seats, Portugal received 134 votes and Austria received 131. Germany received 104, falling 23 short of the two-thirds majority required for election. It was the first time Germany had ever failed to enter the Security Council. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had flown to New York for the occasion. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called it “a real disappointment.”

The question everyone started asking immediately after: why?

Speaking to reporters after the vote, Wadephul suggested Berlin’s support for Ukraine and Israel may have played a role. “We have always taken a clear stance on certain issues, and these are positions that not all member states share,” he said. “The fact that Germany must always assume a special responsibility for Israel in the Middle East conflict may also have cost votes.”

But the picture is more layered than that. Since October 2023, the UN General Assembly voted on at least seven resolutions related to Gaza and the broader question of Palestine. Germany abstained on four of them, including two resolutions that called for a humanitarian truce or ceasefire. Berlin also abstained on a vote to support Palestine’s bid for enhanced UN membership and on a resolution demanding that Israel end its unlawful presence in the occupied Palestinian territory. It later voted in favour of ceasefire resolutions in 2024 and 2025 by which point tens of thousands of Palestinians had already been killed.

The Global South was watching all of it. For the 193 nations that cast a ballot, a vote for Germany would have been a vote to seat, at the world’s most powerful table, a country that many view as having shielded a conflict from accountability. The arithmetic of the UN General Assembly, where every nation, from Germany to Tuvalu, gets exactly one vote — doesn’t always reward economic weight or diplomatic history.

Meanwhile, the countries that did win reveal something about what the world currently rewards. Austria highlighted its neutrality. Portugal leveraged its role as a bridge between Europe and its former colonies to secure support. Both offered something Germany couldn’t in this moment: a reputation untangled from the most divisive conflict of the past three years.

Back in Berlin, the opposition Greens labeled the result an “embarrassing defeat,” with deputy leader Agnieszka Brugger claiming the government did “far too little to underpin this bid with modern ideas.” Merz, for his part, insisted Germany remains a “reliable pillar of the multilateral system.”

What the vote actually revealed is something more uncomfortable: that Germany’s self-image as a moral anchor of the international order, rebuilt painstakingly after the Second World War took a visible hit this week, not from its adversaries, but from a majority of its nominal partners. A seat at the world’s most powerful table is, in the end, not simply claimed. It is granted. And this week, 89 countries decided not to grant it.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed this week at 74,243, down 0.71% from last week’s close of 74,775. It was a turbulent week dominated by two big events: the RBI’s monetary policy decision on Friday and ongoing anxiety over the US-Iran conflict’s impact on oil prices. The rupee tumbled to near-record lows as oil prices extended their recovery, driven by renewed hostilities in the Middle East, while foreign funds continued flowing out of Indian equities. IT stocks were a relative bright spot mid-week, while financials and autos stayed under pressure.

The DAX closed the week at 24,759, down 1.38% from last week’s 25,104. The index fell for most of the week, with two forces working against it. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and stalled US-Iran negotiations weighed on sentiment, while a disappointing earnings report from US chipmaker Broadcom cooled enthusiasm for AI-linked technology stocks. Infineon Technologies, the DAX’s leading semiconductor stock, slid over 5% on Friday as the tech selloff hit hard. Heavyweight industrials Siemens and Siemens Energy also declined, while defensively positioned stocks like Symrise, Hannover Ruck, and E.ON posted modest gains.

Germany News Roundup

• Lufthansa Dreamliner Incident at Frankfurt Airport, results in nose gear collapse injuring staff and prompting an ongoing investigation, with the affected plane being towed for repairs. - hessenschau

• Trade Republic Enables Open IPO Participation, allowing customers to invest directly via smartphone at official allocation prices with minimal fees on selected IPOs, expanding access beyond institutional investors. - Stadt Bremerhaven

• Rewe, IKEA, H&M Workers Strike Two Days, protesting insufficient wage offers amid rising corporate profits, demanding 250 euros monthly raises and better terms to match inflation pressures. - hessenschau.de

• Germany Accelerates Massive Military Buildup, breaking decades of fiscal restraint with multi-billion euro defense spending beyond debt limits and boosting troop numbers, weapon production, and NATO roles by 2027 and beyond. - OkDiario

• Lilly Cuts Germany Investment by Half, redirecting funds to Pennsylvania or a new U.S. site due to cost caps in Germany's health insurance system, impacting Alzey plant capacity and jobs. - whtc.com"

India News Roundup

• India Signs Strategic BrahMos Missile Deal with Vietnam, marking a significant defense cooperation step as India prepares a similar agreement with Indonesia and builds ties with ASEAN nations through advanced technology sharing. - DW

• India’s Gen Z Cockroach Party Protests, mobilizing thousands in New Delhi demanding Education Minister’s resignation over exam irregularities, reflecting youth frustrations on jobs and education reforms under Modi’s government. - France 24

• Siemens Sells Motors Business to Innomotics India, for Rs 2,200 crore, completing the transfer of Low Voltage and Geared Motors operations, enhancing Innomotics’ market presence in India. - Rediff Money

• Coca-Cola Plans Public Listing for Indian Bottler, aiming for a 2027 listing on Bombay and National Stock Exchanges to capitalize on growth and partially sell shares through Hindustan Coca-Cola Holdings Pvt. Ltd. - The Coca-Cola Company

• RBI Doubles NRI Investment Limit to 10%, allowing increased participation in Indian markets and considering similar access for other foreign investors to simplify investments further. - NewsBytes

• German Airports Remove Transit Visa for Indians, starting June 3, allowing layovers without visa but travelers cannot leave the airport transit zone, reflecting stronger Indo-German relations and easing travel. - Times of India

Opportunity

Gold Mutual Funds - India’s Quiet Outperformer

Gold mutual funds have delivered roughly 60–62% returns over the past year, a remarkable figure, especially when the Sensex is down nearly 10% over the same period. The shift began in 2024 when central banks globally accelerated gold purchases, and accelerated sharply through 2025 as US tariff wars, Fed rate uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions drove institutional money into safe havens. The real inflection point came in early 2026: the US-Iran conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spiked, and the rupee fell from ₹90 to nearly ₹96 against the dollar. In Q1 2026, India’s domestic gold price rose 20% quarter-on-quarter and 81% year-on-year, and India’s investment demand surged 52% year-on-year, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time on record. That shift from gold as ornament to gold as asset, reflects a maturing investor mindset that is here to stay.

All five funds in the table work the same way: they invest in gold ETFs backed by physical gold, tracking the MCX domestic price. Returns are tightly clustered because the underlying is identical, what separates them is cost and accessibility. Nippon India Gold Savings stands out for having the lowest expense ratio (0.13%) and the smallest minimum SIP (₹100), making it the most accessible. SBI Gold leads on AUM at ₹15,700 crore, the sheer scale reflecting investor trust. Aditya Birla and Kotak both combine low expense ratios with competitive 3-year CAGRs. ICICI Bank Research expects domestic gold prices to trade between ₹1.5 lakh and ₹1.8 lakh per 10 grams through 2026, a consolidation phase rather than a sharp correction, with structural support intact. For investors not yet holding any gold exposure, a staggered SIP entry rather than a lump sum at near-record prices, remains the prudent approach.

Read more:

🔗 List of Top Gold Mutual Funds in India 2026 — Smallcase / Tickertape — fund screener with live NAV, 5-year CAGR, and AUM data

🔗 Gold Demand Trends India Q1 2026 — World Gold Council — primary source on ETF inflows, investment demand, and import data

🔗 Why experts see gold trading between ₹1.5–1.8 lakh through 2026 — BusinessToday — price outlook and expert commentary

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As the calendar moves deeper into June, attention is already turning toward the next gathering of global leaders at the G7 summit in France later this month, where trade, energy security, technology, and economic resilience are expected to remain high on the agenda. At the same time, the arrival of the monsoon season across India serves as a reminder that weather can be as important to markets as policy, influencing everything from agriculture and consumption to inflation expectations. The week ahead may offer fewer headlines than some, but it arrives at a moment when investors are watching both boardrooms and clouds on the horizon with equal interest. Wishing you a calm and productive week ahead.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

To put that in perspective: in roughly three weeks, the cost of filling a 40-litre tank has gone up by around ₹300. The trigger runs deeper than just the hike cycle, India’s crude oil import basket has jumped from $69 per barrel in February 2026 to an average of $113–114 per barrel more recently, driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. State-run oil companies were losing roughly ₹1,000 crore daily by early May, making the price freeze financially unsustainable. The hikes, then, are not a policy choice as much as a delayed reckoning, years of absorbed losses finally surfacing at the pump.

Meanwhile, Germany handed markets a small but meaningful piece of good news on Friday. Inflation came in at 2.6% for May, below both the previous month’s 2.9% and the market’s own expectation of 2.8%. That might sound modest, but the direction carries weight. For months, the same energy shock pushing up fuel costs in India has been stoking price pressures in Europe too. German energy prices are still up year-on-year, but the rate of increase is slowing and core inflation, which strips out food and energy, held at 2.5%, suggesting the broader price environment is steadier than the headlines suggest.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 74,775.74, falling 1,092 points on Friday alone, the third consecutive session of decline. It was a week of two contrasting halves. Monday opened strongly, with the index surging over 1,000 points after crude prices dipped below $100 per barrel on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, but that optimism evaporated quickly. By Friday, broad-based selling pressure took hold as three factors converged: a below-normal monsoon forecast from the IMD, continued uncertainty around the US-Iran ceasefire, and persistent selling by foreign investors. Oil & gas was the worst-hit sector, down 2.47%, followed by metals, autos, and infrastructure, all facing concerns around inflation and a weaker demand outlook. IT was the only sector to close the week in the green, supported by strong corporate news including Wipro’s AI partnership with ServiceNow.

The DAX told a different story. Closing the week at 25,104.70, up 0.87% from the prior week’s 24,888.56, Frankfurt managed a modest but meaningful gain. The index was buoyed by rising hopes of a near-term US-Iran agreement, with reports of a draft deal to extend the ceasefire, while oil prices fell to more than one-month lows, easing cost pressures across energy-sensitive sectors. SAP and Zalando led the gains, while Bayer, Siemens Energy, and Beiersdorf underperformed.

Germany News Roundup

• CDU Proposes Children Pay Parents’ Care Costs, forcing earlier financial responsibility to prevent rising care insurance contributions and counteract wealth shielding via inheritance strategies in Germany’s healthcare system. - Tagesspiegel

• Childfree Adults Face Higher Elder Care Contributions, with a proposed tax increase to 2.5% income contribution rate, while parents pay lower rates based on number of children, affecting all full-time workers over 23. - DW

• Bundesnetzagentur Plans Solar Grid Fee Reform, proposing higher network charges for private solar panel owners as electricity prices turned negative during surplus solar production. - RP-Online

• Chinese E-Truck Makers Target European Market, planning to replicate their passenger car success by capturing significant shares in Europe’s electric commercial vehicle sector with well-prepared launches and competitive offerings. - Handelsblatt

• Germany’s Economy Faces Prolonged Stagnation, with forecasts lowered to minimal growth amid rising energy costs, aging population, and competitive global pressures challenging economic recovery and budget stability. - DW

• German Economy Minister Advocates Dialogue with China, emphasizing open communication to enhance bilateral economic relations during his visit amidst global trade challenges. - MSN

India News Roundup

• India-US Critical Minerals Supply Framework Signed, boosting cooperation in mining, processing, recycling, investments, and supply chain security for critical minerals and rare earths, advancing strategic collaboration between the two nations. - MEA India

• Myanmar President's Official Visit to India, to strengthen historical ties, engage in business forums, and support multi-faceted relations under India’s Neighborhood First and Act East policies. - MEA India

• $500 Billion US Goods Deal Questions India's Gains, as tariff framework collapses, trade concessions lose value, risking India's economy and currency amidst increased dollar outflows and a growing trade deficit. - The Wire

• Australia Foreign Minister's Strategic India Visit, advancing bilateral cooperation across trade, defence, education, and regional security, while reaffirming commitment to a free Indo-Pacific and planning future dialogue in Australia. - MEA India

• RBI Plans Polymer Currency Notes in India, to reduce production costs, increase durability, and meet rising demand amid surging currency circulation and technological readiness. - Business Standard

• Eicher Motors, Volvo form 50:50 JV for financing, aiming to combine Volvo’s financial expertise and Eicher’s network to enhance vehicle financing options in India, subject to regulatory approvals. - Hindustan Times

• German HAS to Invest in Nano-Agriculture in India, with a €1 million plan to enhance crop health, reduce chemical use, and promote sustainable farming through advanced nanotechnology innovations for Indian farmers. - The Hindu Business Line

Opportunity

The Case for a Junior Depot

Every month, the German state quietly deposits money into your account that most parents treat as household budget. Kindergeld, Germany’s universal child benefit — pays €259 per month per child, regardless of income, to every eligible parent in the country. Over 18 years, that’s nearly €56,000 per child, sitting in your current account, slowly losing value to inflation. But there’s a smarter way to use it.

Enter the Junior Depot - Germany’s version of a custodial investment account, opened in the child’s name, managed by the parent, and one of the most tax-efficient wealth-building tools available to families living here.

How it works

A Junior Depot is a brokerage account that legally belongs to the child from day one. Parents manage and invest the money until the child turns 18, at which point the child gains full control of the account and everything in it. The parent decides where to invest, most families use low-cost index ETFs via a monthly savings plan (Sparplan) and the compounding does the rest over two decades.

The key advantage isn’t just the investment returns. Because every child is treated as an independent taxpayer in Germany, they receive their own annual tax-free allowance (Sparerpauschbetrag) of €1,000 per year on investment income. In addition, children can use the general income tax exemption (Grundfreibetrag) of €12,348 per year, meaning that in combination, up to €13,348 in annual investment income can be completely tax-free, as long as the child has no other income.

The best platforms right now

In 2026, the top-rated Junior Depot providers are Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Finanzen.net Zero, Consorsbank, and ING — all of which charge zero account fees and offer a broad selection of investable ETFs.

What to invest in

For most families, a single globally diversified accumulating ETF is all that’s needed. The go-to options are the MSCI World (covering ~1,500 large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets) or the FTSE All-World (which also includes emerging markets). Both keep annual costs well under 0.25% and have historically delivered strong long-term returns. “Accumulating” variants automatically reinvest dividends, keeping taxable events low and compounding working quietly in the background.

The numbers, simply put

If you invest just the Kindergeld, €259 a month into a globally diversified ETF starting at birth, and assume a conservative 6% annual return, you’d be handing your child a portfolio of roughly €95,000 on their 18th birthday. That’s education fees, a first flat deposit, seed capital for a business, or simply a financial head start that most young adults never get.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

Next week, much of Germany slows down for a day. Fronleichnam - Corpus Christi, falls on Thursday, June 4th, a public holiday in Bavaria, NRW, Baden-Württemberg and several other states, when streets fill with processions, flowers, and a rhythm that feels deliberately unhurried. It's one of those calendar moments that reminds you Germany still knows how to pause, even mid-week. And two days later, Berlin opens its universities and research labs to the public for the Long Night of the Sciences from 5pm to midnight, dozens of institutions throw their doors open, turning one of Europe's great capital cities into a giant, walkable curiosity. Two very different events, same week, one ancient, one forward-looking. Not a bad way to start June.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

The ripple effects extend well beyond the price board at your nearest petrol station. When fuel costs rise, so does the cost of moving everything, food, medicine, manufactured goods. Businesses that had budgeted their freight costs months ago are now quietly recalculating. India’s private sector activity remained in expansion territory through May, but growth in new orders, exports, employment, and overall business activity softened noticeably, according to HSBC’s flash PMI survey. The good news, such as it is: experts warn that elevated crude prices, a weak rupee, and persistent under-recoveries could force tougher policy choices if the West Asia crisis drags on, suggesting this story is far from over.

Meanwhile, across the world in Berlin, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz took a step that could quietly reshape the political map of Europe. On May 21, Merz proposed granting Ukraine an unprecedented “associate member” status within the European Union, an intermediate position that would bring Kyiv closer to the bloc while its full membership bid continues. The proposal was shared through a letter addressed directly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

This matters more than it might first appear. Full EU membership for Ukraine has always been a long, bureaucratic road , years of reforms, negotiations, and unanimous agreement from all 27 member states. An associate status would be something new: a way to deepen economic and political ties without waiting for that entire process to conclude. For businesses and workers across Europe, it could eventually open up labour markets, supply chains, and investment corridors in ways that have rarely been discussed openly.

And then, fittingly, this week ended with a quiet but meaningful moment. On May 23, Germany marked the 77th anniversary of its Basic Law, the constitution adopted in 1949 that laid the foundation for a democratic Germany rising from the ashes of World War II. In 2026, for the first time, Germany officially designated May 23 as its Day of the Basic Law, an initiative launched by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to encourage residents to engage in public and political life. Buildings across the country flew flags. Schools held discussions. Citizens were gently reminded of what it took to build something worth protecting.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 75,415.35, a modest gain of 0.24% from the previous week.It was a cautious week for Indian markets. The key macro driver remained geopolitical: markets closely tracked US-Iran peace talks, watching whether Washington and Tehran could make progress on access to the Strait of Hormuz. Any hint of a resolution lifted sentiment briefly; any setback pulled it back. Banking stocks provided the clearest support, with Axis Bank (+2.5%), ICICI Bank (+1.8%), and HDFC Bank (+1%) among the top performers, while pharmaceuticals and utilities lagged, with Sun Pharma falling 2.7%. Foreign investors remained net sellers, FII outflows on Friday alone stood at ₹4,440 crore, with domestic institutions stepping in to partially absorb the pressure at ₹6,003 crore in net purchases. Elevated oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict continued to weigh on sentiment, keeping the overall mood measured rather than confident.

The DAX had a strong week, closing at 24,888.56 — up 3.9% from the previous close, its highest level in over two weeks. The rally was driven by a combination of tech momentum, improved German consumer and business sentiment heading into June, and growing hopes for a negotiated resolution to the Iran conflict. Infineon Technologies was the standout performer, surging over 7%, while Deutsche Post gained 3.9% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to "buy." Sportswear names Puma and Adidas gained 5.9% and 2.4% respectively, buoyed by strong results from US rival Deckers Outdoor and growing anticipation around the FIFA World Cup. On the downside, real estate firm Vonovia fell 5.3% and Fresenius Medical Care dropped 3.9%.

Germany News Roundup

• Porsche Pauses Production Over Taycan Sales, due to reduced demand for the electric Taycan, impacting profitability and prompting a shift toward combustion and hybrid models amid declining sales and profits. - SWR

• Germany and Japan Lead Hydrogen Vehicle Innovation, as BMW and Toyota jointly develop advanced fuel cell technologies aiming for mass production to reduce reliance on fossil fuels by 2028 and expand green hydrogen use amid growing industrial demand. - DW

• Germany Invests Heavily in Defense Firm KNDS, with plans to acquire a 40% stake initially, reducing to 30% over three years while maintaining strategic voting rights alongside France. - ua.news

• Uber Considers Full Takeover of Delivery Hero, as part of its strategic expansion into Germany’s competitive food delivery market, potentially increasing its European presence significantly. - MSN Money

• Mercedes Plans Urban Assisted Driving Launch Germany, with MB. DRIVE ASSIST PRO available in select cities by end 2026 to compete with BMW and Tesla in European automated driving tech. - Marketscreener

• Stihl’s Breakthrough in Battery-Powered Chainsaws, introduces a high-performance battery boosting power by 60%, enabling professional use and marking a major shift from traditional petrol engines in forestry equipment. - Schwaebische

India News Roundup

• India-Italy Elevate Ties to Strategic Partnership, expanding cooperation in trade, technology, defence, science, culture, and multilateral initiatives with goals to boost bilateral trade to €20 billion by 2029 and advance global connectivity projects. - pmindia.gov.in

• India's Viral 'Cockroach' Movement Surges, millions of young Indians join this satirical yet serious political platform expressing frustration and demanding democratic change amid rising politicization and activism. - DW

• India, Norway Form Green Strategic Partnership, strengthening collaboration on clean energy, climate resilience, blue economy, green shipping, technology, and space, with shared commitments to innovation and global digital solutions. - Newsonair

• India Issues Ebola Advisory for Travelers, cautioning those linked to affected African regions amid a major Bundibugyo strain outbreak and WHO global health emergency, despite no cases reported in India so far. - Down To Earth

• PM Modi Returns After Transformative Five-Nation Tour, signing key pacts on energy, defence, critical minerals, and elevating ties with Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, and Nordic countries while receiving multiple honors abroad. - The Hindu

• Volvo and Eicher Motors Form India JV, to expand financial services support tailored for the Indian commercial vehicle market under a new joint venture partnership. - Volvogroup

• Varun Beverages Extends PepsiCo Deal to 2049, gaining broader business freedom and expanding operations domestically and internationally, including African markets and potential new beverage categories. - Economic Times","

• Nikhil Kamath Urge to Simplify NRI Investment Rules for India's Growth, to remove unnecessary barriers and encourage greater participation of overseas Indians in India's economic development with easier digital onboarding and reduced paperwork hurdles. - Whalesbook

• Eurobank Launches UPI Remittances to India, offering the first European bank service for Greece and Cyprus to send cross-border payments with minimal transaction charges and opening a Mumbai office to boost EU-India trade ties. - Economic Times

Opportunity

Indian IT Sector

India’s information technology sector, the industry that put the country on the global economic map is going through its most significant rethink in decades. The arrival of powerful AI tools capable of automating the core work that Indian IT firms have sold to global clients for years triggered a brutal sell-off earlier in 2026. The Nifty IT index lost nearly 27% between early February and mid-May, against a much milder 9% decline in the broader market. This is not a routine correction. Mutual funds have collectively slashed their technology exposure to an eight-year low of 6.7% as of April 2026, reflecting a genuine structural debate about whether the old IT services model, built on deploying large teams of engineers for global clients can survive the age of AI agents that do the same work faster and cheaper.

Industry analysts estimate that AI could cause 2–3% annual revenue deflation in traditional IT services for the next two years, with the peak disruption window running through FY28, but they also project an AI-driven expansion of the addressable market worth $300–400 billion by 2030, as enterprises eventually spend more on AI transformation than they currently do on conventional outsourcing.

For everyday investors, this divide between the cautious and the conviction-buyers is itself the signal worth studying. Broadly diversified funds not sector-specific bets are the right lens here, precisely because they allow professional fund managers to make and revise these difficult calls on your behalf. The risk of getting the timing wrong on a sector in genuine transition is real; so is the risk of missing a recovery entirely. The full breakdown of which funds cut, which bought, and what it means for portfolios sitting in IT-heavy schemes is worth reading carefully.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here: Value Research

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

Today morning, over a million young Indians will sit down at exam centres across the country to attempt the UPSC Civil Services Preliminary exam, the first and most gruelling gate in what many call the hardest career path in India. Each of these candidates has spent months, sometimes years, preparing for four hours that could define the rest of their professional lives. Whatever one thinks about institutions, bureaucracies, or the pace of change, there is something quietly stirring about a democracy where a million people still believe that public service is worth that kind of sacrifice.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

The backdrop is a world on edge. Crude oil prices have been trading above $100 per barrel due to the West Asia crisis, with prices touching a 52-week high of $126 per barrel at the end of last month, while the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz persists. For India, this is not just a geopolitical headline, it hits the economy where it hurts most. India is the world’s third largest oil importer after China and the US, and crude oil is the single largest contributor to its import budget. When oil gets expensive, the country bleeds dollars faster. And right now, those dollars need to be guarded.

Gold makes the problem sharper. India is among the biggest buyers of gold worldwide and relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand, so each surge in jewellery or bullion purchases adds to the import bill in dollars and weighs on India’s foreign exchange reserves and the rupee, especially when crude oil is also expensive. Indians imported gold worth $72 billion in the 2025–2026 fiscal year, second in the world only to China. Add to that the roughly 32.7 million Indians who travelled abroad in 2025, each trip converting rupees into foreign currency, and you begin to see the scale of the outflow. India’s foreign exchange reserves have already slipped from $728.5 billion in late February to $690.69 billion as of May 1, a fall of nearly $38 billion in just over two months.

Modi framed his message as “economic patriotism”, linking everyday household choices, fuel use, jewellery purchases, international vacations directly to macroeconomic stability. “Patriotism is not only about the willingness to sacrifice one’s life on the border,” he said. “In these times, it is about living responsibly and fulfilling our duties to the nation in our daily lives.” Whether or not Indians heed the appeal, the speech itself signals something important: the government is worried, and it’s asking citizens to share the weight. In the weeks ahead, how India navigates this pressure through policy, restraint, or both will be worth watching closely.

Stock Market

The Sensex had a difficult week, shedding 2,090 points to close at 75,237.99 and the headline number alone tells a larger story. This week, the pressure came from multiple directions at once. India raised petrol and diesel prices for the first time in four years by ₹3 per litre to partially offset losses from elevated global crude prices, while foreign outflows continued to weigh on sentiment. The inflation concern this triggers is real: the rupee hit an all-time low, touching 95.6250 against the dollar, as Brent crude held around $105 a barrel, keeping foreign fund outflows persistent. Metals and oil & gas stocks led the losses on Friday, wiping out most of the day’s intraday gains, with Tata Steel and Reliance Industries among the notable laggards though technology names like Infosys and Tech Mahindra managed to hold up, offering some cushion to the index.

DAX closed the week 1.59% lower at 23,950, with Friday alone dragging the index down over 2% as a late-week selloff erased the gains built earlier. Market sentiment was dented by stalled progress on the Iran conflict and inflation fears, alongside risks of renewed military escalation with US President Trump threatening Tehran again, signalling he would not be patient much longer. Investors had hoped the long-awaited Trump-Xi summit in China would bring some clarity on trade, but disappointment over the lack of concrete results from the summit, particularly on trade and the Iran issue, added to the week’s unease.

Germany News Roundup

• Mercedes Considers Entering Defense Production, highlighting the need for European defense capability expansion and its potential contribution to the company’s growth despite being a small business segment. - Spiegel

• Merz Government Ends Eight-Hour Workday, introducing a weekly 48-hour limit to enhance flexibility with mandatory electronic time tracking, while facing unions’ opposition and mixed public opinion. - Ruhr24

• Germany’s Economy Hit by $52 Billion Tax Shortfall, due to fallout from the Iran war, impacting growth and fiscal revenues significantly this year. - MSN

• German Auto Jobs at Risk by 2035, with 125,000 positions threatened due to EV transition, rising costs, competition, and EU climate policies impacting industrial competitiveness and employment. - News.Az

• Tesla Expands Giga Berlin Battery Capacity, more than doubling production to 18 GWh and creating 1,500+ jobs with a $250 million investment, aiming for full local battery manufacturing integration in Germany. - Drive Tesla Canada“,”

• Germany Expands Economic Ties in Johor, by sending 70 business representatives to explore investment and cross-border cooperation opportunities in the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. - The Star

• Munich Ends Free Kindergarten; Fees Triple, increasing municipal and private daycare charges from 2027 to 2029, impacting families financially in Germany’s most expensive city. - Sueddeutsche

• Google Finance Expands AI Tools to Europe, bringing real-time data, advanced research, and live earnings calls with AI insights to users as part of a global rollout to 100 countries. - Pluang

India News Roundup

• India Ranks Third in Renewable Energy Capacity, with significant growth in solar module and cell production, while still relying on imports for key components, particularly from China, as non-fossil fuel capacity surpasses 50%. - NewsOnAir

• India Raises Bullion Import Duties to 15%, aiming to curb gold and silver imports amid a declining rupee and rising trade deficit driven by elevated energy costs and strong bullion demand in early 2026. - CNBC

• India-U.K. Trade Deal Faces Steel Import Challenge, delaying implementation as both sides seek solutions to new UK steel quotas not included in initial negotiations, aiming for early activation despite late-stage issues. - The Hindu

• India-UAE Sign Deals Enhancing Energy Security, bolstering strategic petroleum reserves and long-term LPG supplies, reducing vulnerabilities from geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. - Times of India

• Rajnath Singh Visits Germany for Defence Talks, aiming to enhance defence cooperation and likely discuss submarine deal opportunities between India and Germany during his visit starting Tuesday. - MSN

Opportunity

European Defence Merger and Acquisitions

We have covered the German defence theme in these newsletter several times, Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Renk, and the ETFs that wrap them together. But this week, a detailed analysis from international law firm Bird & Bird offers a sharper lens on why this opportunity is far from over. The foundation is a spending commitment that governments across Europe cannot easily walk back. Crucially, all 32 NATO members are now on course to meet the 2% of GDP defence spending threshold, something only the UK and the US had consistently managed since 2010. Some member states have already signalled targets well above 2% by 2035. For investors, this is not a cyclical bump, it is a decade-long structural reorientation of European industrial policy.

What makes this moment particularly significant is a shift that is easy to miss: institutional money that was previously banned from touching defence is now actively moving in. For years, ESG frameworks categorically excluded defence companies from eligible portfolios, it wasn’t just unfashionable, it was structurally blocked. That changed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the European Commission has since made clear that defence investment is not excluded from sustainable finance frameworks. The European Investment Bank, which historically kept defence off its lending list, has now broadened its financing scope to cover defence-related investment.

Even Ireland, traditionally one of the most defence-averse markets in Europe due to its military neutrality has seen a dedicated defence fund, Fulcrum, set up within its borders. That alone speaks to how far the consensus has shifted.

For retail investors watching from the sidelines, the article points to two emerging angles worth understanding. The first is the rise of “neo-primes”, AI-driven defence companies built outside the traditional contractor model. Germany’s own Helsing, founded just in 2021, is reportedly raising $1.2 billion at a valuation approaching $18 billion, having already secured AI software contracts with the Bundeswehr and the UK Ministry of Defence. The second angle is the supply chain, which Bird & Bird describe as the more practical entry point for many investors. Tier-two and tier-three suppliers in propellants, semiconductors, advanced materials, simulation software, and maintenance services are seeing strong, sustained demand. Critically, the years-long qualification processes that once made these businesses unattractive are now precisely what make them defensible, they are hard to replicate and hard to displace.

Read the full Bird & Bird analysis here: European Defence M&A: The Investment Opportunity — Lexology

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

Before we sign off, here is something to look forward to. In less than four weeks, on June 11, the FIFA World Cup 2026 kicks off across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the first edition ever to feature 48 teams across three host nations simultaneously. It arrives at a peculiar moment: crude oil above $100, markets under pressure and a war reshaping global supply chains. And yet, somewhere in all of that noise, a billion-plus will find a screen to watch, many quietly expecting their team to go deep into the tournament.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

West Bengal witnessed its biggest political earthquake in a generation, as the BJP stormed to a landslide victory winning 207 seats far beyond the majority mark of 148, ending Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year reign over the state. In a particularly symbolic blow, Mamata Banerjee herself lost her Bhabanipur stronghold to BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari by a margin of over 15,000 votes. Yesterday, on May 9, chosen deliberately to coincide with the birth anniversary of Rabindranath Tagore, Suvendu Adhikari was sworn in as West Bengal’s first-ever BJP Chief Minister, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah attending the historic ceremony at Kolkata’s legendary Maidan.

Tamil Nadu delivered a stunning political debut for actor Thalapathy Vijay’s TVK, which emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats, a feat no new party has achieved in the state’s modern history. However, Vijay finds himself in a precarious position, as 108 seats still falls 10 seats short of the 118-seat majority mark required to form the government. The situation has since descended into a complex political deadlock: Vijay submitted signatures of only 116 MLAs to the Governor still below the required threshold, while arch-rivals DMK and AIADMK are reportedly in talks to form an unlikely alliance to keep TVK out of power, and the key ally VCK continues to delay its formal support. As of yesterday, the Governor has not confirmed that Vijay commands the necessary majority, leaving Tamil Nadu’s next government still hanging in the balance.

Stock Market

Indian markets closed the week on a quiet but positive note, with the Sensex gaining around 415 points from its previous week’s close of 76,913. The mood on Dalal Street was driven by two key themes, one political, one financial. The decisive BJP victory in West Bengal elections removed a major overhang of political uncertainty, and investors welcomed the clear mandate with cautious optimism. On the earnings front, Auto stocks were the star performers, rising over 5% on the back of strong monthly sales numbers, while consumer durables also held steady.

The German DAX eked out a slim weekly gain of about 0.19%, closing at 24,338 points, a resilient performance given the turbulent macro backdrop Europe faced this week. The week started promisingly, with the DAX rallying strongly on Tuesday and Wednesday as optimism around a potential Iran peace deal briefly lifted sentiment across global markets. German blue-chip heavyweight Henkel provided a bright spot, gaining after a strong Q1 earnings beat, but it wasn’t enough to push the index past the psychologically important 25,000-point level.

Germany News Roundup

• Rheinmetall Hits New Low on JP Morgan Downgrade, triggering a strong technical sell signal and potential further declines after the defense stock fell below key support levels at a 52-week low. - wallstreet-online.de

• Porsche to Close Battery Cell Subsidiary Cellforce, shifting focus to core business and discontinuing Cellforce, eBike unit, and software subsidiary affecting over 400 employees amid market changes and strategy shift. - electrive.net

• Wacker Chemie Cuts 1,300 Burghausen Jobs, as part of a €300 million cost-saving plan, avoiding layoffs through voluntary programs, reducing workforce mainly at its largest global site amid ongoing industry slump. - BR24

• VW Subsidiary IAV Selling Berlin Site, plans to largely abandon its main location by 2027, causing union concerns over potential closures including the Stollberg site amid auto industry crisis. - Freie Presse

• DeepL Cuts Quarter of Workforce, to restructure amidst growing competition in AI translation technology, impacting job security and operational scale at the Cologne-based company. - Golem

• Germany Commits €5 Billion to Industry Decarbonization, supporting cleaner technologies in steel, cement, and chemical sectors to meet EU climate goals and reduce heavy industry emissions by 50% within four years. - Impakter

• Berlin Empowers Indian Startups as Gateway to Europe, offering workspace, business support, and innovation collaboration through INDIA DESK Germany to facilitate market entry and growth for Indian firms in Germany and Europe. - The European

• Thyssenkrupp Halts Indian Stake Sale Talks, due to improved EU steel policies, restructuring progress, and evolving market conditions, continuing steel division restructuring independently for profitability and autonomy. - Marketscreener

India News Roundup

• India's Dual Citizenship Reluctance Persists, over two million have renounced Indian citizenship since 2011, with the government maintaining strict OCI card rules, reflecting enduring concerns over loyalty and control of citizenship definitions. - The Wire

• India Advances Semiconductor Industry with Major Projects, boosting investments and employment across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and other states through government incentives, SEZ reforms, and a robust ecosystem to become a global semiconductor hub. - India Briefing

• Claude Launches AI Agents for Financial Services, offering ready-to-run templates that automate pitchbooks, KYC screening, month-end closing, and integrate seamlessly with Microsoft 365 to boost efficiency in financial workflows. - Anthropic

• Finance Ministry Links Procurement to Labour Compliance, to enhance protections for contract workers by enforcing timely wage payments and social security contributions in government contracts, with penalties for violations including up to three-year debarment. - Economic Times

• WhatsApp Launches Business AI for Indian SMEs, offering AI-driven customer support in multiple Indian languages to automate queries, book appointments, and boost sales within the WhatsApp Business app. - Medianews4u

• Pixxel, Sarvam Launch India's Orbital AI Satellite, advancing in-orbit AI processing with data center-class GPUs and India's sovereign AI platform for real-time environmental and infrastructure insights by 2026. - Telecom Review Asia

• Air India to Introduce Lite Fares Option, which may exclude meals on domestic and short international flights while offering lounge access for business flyers to enhance travel flexibility and affordability. - MSN

Watchlist

Equity Mutual Funds - India

Every month, Value Research - India’s most trusted independent fund research platform puts every mutual fund scheme through a rigorous performance test. No shortcuts, no grade curves. This month, five equity funds earned a step-up from 3 stars to 4 stars, purely on the back of consistent outperformance against their benchmarks and peers. The ratings are built on a smart formula: each fund gets a Return Score and a Risk Score, the risk is subtracted from the returns, and the result is weighted across three-year and five-year periods, so a fund can’t just get lucky in one quarter and claim a top rating.

Here is a quick look at the three funds out of five that made the cut this month:

• ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund — Ranked #1 in 3-year mid-cap returns with a stellar 25% one-year return, though mid-cap risk remains real with higher volatility

• Aditya Birla Sun Life Flexi Cap Fund — Delivered 8.3% in the past year vs. its benchmark’s 4.3%, with slightly lower volatility than peers

• Mahindra Manulife Multi Cap Fund — A rapid climber, jumping from 2 stars to 3 stars in November 2025, and now earning 4 stars, with 11.4% one-year returns vs. the benchmark’s 5.4%

A star upgrade is a signal worth noting, but it is only the starting point. Whether any of these funds fit your portfolio depends on your goals, risk appetite, and investment horizon. As always, this is not investment advice, just a heads-up on what the market’s sharpest analysts are saying.

👉 Read the full analysis on Value Research:
5 Equity Funds Upgraded to 4 Stars This Month

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As we wrap up this edition, the week ahead promises to be an eventful one on both sides of the world.

In Germany, the week brings the Christi Himmelfahrt (Ascension Day) public holiday on Thursday, May 15, a long weekend for many in Germany, which traditionally sees consumer spending pick up and retail stocks getting a brief seasonal boost.

We will be back next Sunday with fresh insights, opportunities, and updates curated just for you.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

The Sensex showed a mild positive movement this week, closing at 76,913.5, up 0.33% from last week’s 76,664.21. Key factors influencing sentiment included steady performance in the IT and energy sectors, supported by strong quarterly results and stable global oil prices. Additionally, ongoing government reforms in infrastructure drew investor interest, helping to counterbalance concerns about inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions impacting global trade.

In Germany, the DAX index rose by 0.68% to close at 24,292.38, up from 24,128.98 last week, continuing a positive trend amid a yearly gain of 5.22%. The market was buoyed by gains in the automotive and manufacturing sectors, which benefited from improved export figures and easing supply chain disruptions. Investors also responded to reassuring statements from the European Central Bank regarding inflation control. However, concerns related to the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and its impact on energy prices kept some caution in the market atmosphere.

Germany News Roundup

• German Power Prices Hit Negative Record, driven by massive solar overproduction on May 1st, forcing grid operators to limit solar input to stabilize the network and avoid blackouts, burdening taxpayers with costs. - agrarheute

• Iron Dome Maker Eyes Volkswagen Osnabrück Plant, to transform it into a production site for missile defense components, marking a shift from car manufacturing amid VW’s restructuring plans. - Bild

• Germany’s Auto Capitals Face Deep Financial Crisis, stemming from structural shifts, declining trade taxes, and industry retooling pressures beyond just electric vehicle challenges affecting Stuttgart, Munich, and Wolfsburg. - Primary Ignition

• U.S. to Withdraw 5,000 Troops from Germany, facing strategic reassessment amid tensions with Germany and ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, impacting NATO and European security dynamics. - NPR

• Rheinmetall Secures €1.04B German Soldier Contract, to supply and modernize 237 platoon systems, enhancing the German army’s future soldier equipment with advanced digital communication by 2029. - BreakingDefense

• Decarbonization Needs Clearer German Climate Policy, companies urge the government to provide planning certainty to boost investments and accelerate the green tech rollout amidst economic growth potential highlighted by Chancellor Merz. - Table.media

• Germany April Unemployment Up 20,000, with jobless rate steady at 6.4%, highest since July 2020, showing no labor market turnaround amid weak spring upturn. - Investinglive

India News Roundup

• India-New Zealand Sign Landmark Free Trade Agreement, boosting exports with 100% duty-free access, securing USD 20 billion FDI commitment, protecting sensitive sectors, and enhancing talent mobility and traditional medicine trade. - Vision IAS

• India-China Discuss LAC Stability and Regional Security, focusing on peace and tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control and exchanging views on broader regional security including the West Asia situation. - The Hindu

• India Raises Commercial LPG Prices Again, impacting restaurants and food businesses with higher costs amid ongoing global energy tensions and new domestic LPG distribution rules. - DW

• Air India to Reduce International Flights, due to soaring fuel costs, airspace restrictions, and longer routes making several operations unprofitable through July. - IndiaToday

• India Citizenship Rules 2026 Modernize OCI System, introducing digital OCI cards, online applications, biometric fast-track benefits, and simplifying compliance to enhance user experience and transparency for Overseas Citizens of India. - Vajiram and Ravi

• France Waives Transit Visas for Indians, allowing bookings through French airports without separate paperwork, simplifying travel and echoing Germany's earlier policy change in 2026 for smoother European connections. - VisaHQ

Watchlist

Singapore’s government investment portfolio

The Government of Singapore's investment portfolio is one of the most closely watched institutional positions in Asian markets and for good reason. Sovereign wealth funds operate with decades-long horizons, deep research teams, and access to intelligence that most retail investors simply don't have. When Singapore's government takes a position in Indian equities, it signals something important: structured, long-term confidence in India's growth story. With 10 stocks in this portfolio already delivering gains of up to 70% in just one year, this is not a portfolio to ignore.

What makes this quarter's update particularly exciting is the addition of five fresh names alongside a roster of already-performing heavyweights.

The new Q4 additions span electric mobility, quick commerce, logistics, value retail, and commercial vehicles. These aren't random picks; they reflect a deliberate bet on India's consumption boom, infrastructure buildout, and the shift toward organised retail and last-mile delivery.

The existing holdings including cover manufacturing, financials, defence electronics, and healthcare, painting a broad picture of where institutional money sees India heading.

For a retail investor, the logic here is straightforward: track what the smartest long-term money is doing and understand *why* before acting. This portfolio skews heavily toward cyclical and consumption-driven sectors, which tend to reward patience. Risks include market volatility, currency movement for foreign investors, and sector-specific headwinds particularly in auto and logistics.

Read more information on Economic Times

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As May arrives, it brings with it a quieter but telling moment on the calendar — Germany observed **Tag der Arbeit** on May 1st, Labour Day, a public holiday with deep roots in workers' solidarity, while India marks the same date in its own understated way. There is something grounding about a day that pauses both markets and machines across two very different economies, reminding us that behind every index move and policy rate sits an enormous human workforce. Next week, as trading desks reopen and the data flow resumes, that brief stillness may be worth holding onto.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed at 76,664.21 on April 25, down 2.33% from 78,493.54 the previous week. This decline reflected cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing concerns over rising inflation and tighter lending conditions by Indian banks. The technology and finance sectors saw notable weakness, partly influenced by disappointing corporate earnings reports released during the week. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions in Asia added to market unease, limiting significant recovery attempts.

Germany’s DAX index fell 2.32% during the same period, closing at 24,128.98 from 24,702.24. The market was pressured by weaker industrial output data and ongoing energy supply concerns tied to the Ukraine conflict’s indirect effects on Europe’s resource security. The automotive sector, a key component of Germany’s economy, experienced notable dips as supply chain disruptions persisted. Meanwhile, cautious consumer sentiment translated to a downturn in retail stocks, contributing to the overall market decline.

Germany News Roundup

• Germany’s Economic Rebound Stalled by Energy Shock, as soaring energy costs from the Iran war cause growth forecasts to be cut, impacting industrial production and prompting government fiscal response. - CNBC

• China Challenges German Automakers’ Dominance, with competitively priced, well-equipped vehicles disrupting established German brands like Mercedes, Volkswagen, and BMW in the Chinese market amid rising local patriotism and technological advances. - FR.de

• Rheinmetall’s Growth Amid German Auto Crisis, is driving job creation with plans to add 25,000 employees by 2030, yet experts say the arms industry won’t fully replace automotive sector jobs. - Bild

• Anthropic’s Mythos AI Raises Security Concerns, highlighting risks of exclusive control over software vulnerabilities and potential shifts in cyber threat landscapes affecting national and European security. - Heise

• Germany Shifts from Auto to Defense Industry, as automotive profits plunge and job cuts rise, defense production expands with government support and rising investments, making Germany Europe’s key arms manufacturing hub. - Logos

• Lufthansa Ends Free Carry-On Suitcase Allowance, introducing a new Economy Basic fare from May 19, allowing only one small personal item free, with additional baggage fees starting at 15 euros for short and medium routes. - BR24

• Milka Faces Court Over Reduced Chocolate Content, challenged for shrinking product size from 100g to 90g while keeping packaging almost unchanged, accused of misleading consumers about price and quantity changes. - GIGA

India News Roundup

• Rajnath Singh Boosts Rs 90,000-Crore Submarine Deal, in Germany to advance Project 75I, enhancing India’s naval fleet with six advanced submarines through a strategic Indo-German partnership amid rising maritime security challenges. - India Today

• India’s Largest Defence Deal with Germany Imminent, expected within 90 days, involving an $8 billion submarine agreement enhancing bilateral military cooperation and strategic defence capabilities. - Moneycontrol

• India, South Korea to Boost Trade to $50B by 2030, signing MoUs in multiple sectors and launching the India-Korea Digital Bridge to deepen cooperation in AI, semiconductors, and IT for shared growth and innovation. - NewsOnAir

• India-Russia Military Pact Enables Base Access, allowing mutual stationing of troops, warships, and aircraft to strengthen bilateral defence cooperation and strategic reach amid global geopolitical shifts. - AlJazeera

• Finance Minister Chairs AI Risk Meeting, to address AI-related threats in banking, urging vigilance, coordination, cybersecurity strengthening, and real-time threat intelligence sharing among banks and authorities. - NewsOnAir

• France Removes Transit Visa for Indians, enabling Indian passport holders to transit through French airports without an airport transit visa starting April 10, 2026, as declared by French President Emmanuel Macron. - Diplomatie.gouv.fr

Opportunity

List of GIFT City MFs

India's financial future is not evolving, it's accelerating. Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, better known as GIFT City, is India's first operational smart city and international financial services centre, designed to compete directly with global hubs like Singapore and Dubai. What makes this moment particularly significant is the speed of transformation: total fund commitments have exploded from under $500 million in 2020 to over $32 billion by 2025, a staggering leap in just five years. This is not a gradual trend quietly building in the background; it is a structural shift in how global capital views India, and it is happening right now.

The numbers behind GIFT City tell a compelling story. More than 200 fund management entities have set up operations there, collectively launching over 300 fund schemes. Crucially, around 85% of the capital raised is being deployed back into India, meaning this hub is not just a financial address, it is actively channelling global investment into the Indian economy. The appeal is clear: GIFT City offers international investors a regulated, tax-efficient environment to access Indian growth, while giving Indian investors easier pathways to global markets.

For a retail investor, particularly one based in Europe or with an interest in emerging markets, GIFT City mutual funds represent an increasingly accessible way to participate in India's growth story through a structured, internationally recognised framework. If you want to understand exactly which funds are active in this space and how they work in practice, the full breakdown is worth exploring.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here:

Belong - GIFT City Mutual Funds

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As April gives way to May, the coming week brings a clutch of moments worth watching closely. The European Central Bank's policy signals will be parsed carefully in Frankfurt boardrooms, while India's manufacturing and services PMI data for April, due at the end of the month will offer the first real read on how the economy is absorbing global trade turbulence.

Meanwhile, May Day on the first falls mid-week, quieting markets across Europe and prompting reflection on labour, wages, and the changing nature of work themes that have quietly shaped headlines all year. The numbers, when they arrive, may well tell us whether resilience is holding, or merely being tested.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Two stories this week. One about who gets a seat at the table, and one about who gets to build the table itself.

And on the note of building something in this week’s Opportunity Section, we’ve done the research on a theme that’s hard to ignore right now: 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to AI Bull Brad Gerstner, the investor whose early and vocal bets on AI infrastructure have made Wall Street pay close attention whenever he speaks. Worth a read before the markets open Monday.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 78,493.54, up 1.22% from last week showing a steady positive trend. This week's market gains were largely supported by strong performances in the technology and financial sectors, which responded well to quarterly earnings reports that beat analyst expectations. Additionally, government announcements regarding infrastructure investments helped lift investor sentiment. Despite some lingering concerns over global economic conditions, domestic factors kept the market on an optimistic track.

In Germany, the DAX index rose 3.77% this week, closing at 24,702.24 compared to last week's 23,806.99. The market's upward movement was mainly driven by gains in the automotive and industrial sectors, reflecting increased export orders and positive corporate earnings updates. Furthermore, improved energy supply forecasts helped ease concerns about inflationary pressures impacting manufacturing costs. Overall, the DAX showed resilience amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties affecting European markets.

Germany News Roundup

• Debate on Germany’s Nuclear Power Reentry, questions the viability of restarting old plants due to long, costly processes and favors focusing on renewable energy storage solutions and grid modernization instead. - Tagesschau

• Germany Plans Stricter Sick Leave Policies, aiming to curb high absenteeism and address economic slowdown by penalizing early sick leaves and rewarding fewer sick days under Chancellor Merz’s proposed reforms. - NYPost

• Germany Approves $1.9B Fuel Relief Package, offering temporary tax cuts on gasoline and diesel, a €1,000 tax-free employer bonus, and tighter fuel price oversight amid economic and energy challenges caused by geopolitical tensions. - ESG News

• Job Cuts Planned by One-Third of German Firms, reflecting prolonged economic crisis and rising production and export challenges intensified by geopolitical tensions and increased costs, pressuring reforms in Germany’s economic model. - Bild

• Rewe Plans to Acquire Up to 40 Tegut Stores, aiming to integrate most locations into its network, modernize stores, and secure jobs, pending approval from the Bundeskartellamt for enhanced regional supply and customer benefits. - Osthessen-News

• German Wholesale Prices Surge from War Impacts, driven by rising energy and raw material costs affecting the overall supply chain in Germany. - aa.com.tr

India News Roundup

• India Blocks Bill Boosting Women's Representation, after parliament rejected proposal linked to controversial electoral map redrawing, sparking political opposition and regional protests over increased parliamentary seats and delimitation impacts. - The Guardian

• India’s Forex Reserves Reach New Record High, climbing to $728.49 billion, aided by rising gold holdings and strong foreign currency assets, enhancing the RBI's capacity to stabilize the rupee amid global uncertainties. - Indian New England

• Rajnath Singh's Germany Visit Highlights Submarine Deal, as he aims to strengthen defence collaboration, investment, and strategic partnerships through talks with German leaders and military officials in Berlin. - The Hindu

• India Germany Strengthen Defence and Energy Ties, to deepen cooperation in defence, green hydrogen, renewables, technology, and strategic partnership amid West Asia and global geopolitical challenges. - Economic Times

• India and Germany Launch AI Group for SMEs, aiming to boost AI adoption by connecting German SMEs with Indian AI expertise under a structured collaboration to enhance competitiveness and market access. - PressInsider

• Greece Gains Appeal for Indian HNI Investments, as it offers lower investment thresholds, Schengen access, and diversification benefits, complementing rather than replacing Dubai's established business and tax advantages. - BusinessToday

Opportunity

10 Best Stocks to Buy According to AI Bull Brad Gerstner

The artificial intelligence revolution is no longer a distant promise, it is actively reshaping industries, business models, and investment portfolios right now. What makes this moment particularly compelling is the scale of capital being deployed: major technology companies are collectively committing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, software, and computing power over the coming years.

Brad Gerstner, a seasoned technology investor and vocal AI advocate, has built his entire investment thesis around the idea that we are still in the early innings of this transformation. His conviction is not casual, he has spent years positioning his firm specifically around companies he believes will define the next decade of economic growth.

What sets Gerstner's approach apart is his focus on businesses that are not just experimenting with AI, but are structurally embedded in its growth. He targets companies across the AI supply chain, from the hardware and infrastructure that powers AI systems, to the software platforms and consumer-facing applications built on top of them. His portfolio leans toward businesses with strong competitive advantages, massive user bases, and the ability to monetise AI capabilities at scale. Crucially, many of these are not speculative early-stage bets, they are established, revenue-generating companies whose AI integration is already driving measurable improvements in earnings and efficiency.

For retail investors, this represents a useful roadmap for thinking about AI exposure in a portfolio, particularly as markets in both Europe and Asia are increasingly influenced by the performance of AI-driven technology leaders. The key consideration is diversification: concentrating too heavily in any single theme carries risk, especially given how quickly sentiment around technology can shift. Valuations in this space are already elevated, so patience and a long-term horizon matter more than timing.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here:

Insider Monkey — 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to AI Bull Brad Gerstner

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As markets digest this week's turbulence, attention turns to the European Central Bank's policy meeting on April 17, where rate-setters face the uncomfortable task of balancing stubborn inflation against slowing growth, a tension that feels increasingly familiar across the global economy.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

This week, the Sensex showed a notable rise, closing at 77,550.25 compared to 73,319.55 the previous week, marking an increase of approximately 5.77%. This upward movement reflected positive investor sentiment largely driven by strong performances in the IT and pharmaceutical sectors. Additionally, renewed government policies aimed at boosting manufacturing and exports helped bolster confidence, contributing to the overall market strength.

During the same period, Germany’s DAX also advanced, closing at 23,803.95 up from 23,168.08 the previous week, reflecting a 2.74% gain. This growth was supported by robust earnings reports from key industrial and automotive companies, which reassured investors about corporate health. Furthermore, positive developments in European trade negotiations helped improve market sentiment. The energy sector remained under pressure due to ongoing supply concerns linked to global conflicts, but this was offset by gains in technology stocks.

Germany News Roundup

• VW Ends ID.4 Production in US, shifting focus to more profitable markets and adjusting to changing demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector. - Golem

• BYD Launches Luxury Denza Z9 GT in Germany, offering up to 800 km range and ultra-fast 5-minute charging with Flash-Charging technology, targeting premium electric vehicle segment from €115,000. - Netzwelt

• German Economy Pre-War on Contraction Path, with industrial production declining and energy challenges worsening due to rising costs and Middle East conflict impact on imports and industrial sectors. - ING Think

• Germany Suspends Military Stay Approval for Men, allowing men under 45 to travel freely without reporting lengthy stays abroad during peacetime, as military service remains voluntary under the new law. - BBC

• Ingka Group Expands 110 MW Solar Capacity in Germany, advancing two solar parks to generate renewable power for 26,000 households as part of an $8.1 billion investment accelerating the energy transition. - ESG News

• Minister Vivek Discusses Telangana Youth Jobs, aiming to expand skilled employment opportunities for Telangana youth in Germany’s robust economy through high-level diplomatic talks in Berlin. - The Hindu

India News Roundup

• India Remains One of Fastest-Growing Economies, projected to grow 6.6% in FY27 despite Middle East conflict and supply disruptions, supported by strong fundamentals and policy resilience according to the World Bank. - World Bank

• India Withdraws Bid to Host COP33 Summit, citing a review of 2028 commitments and leaving uncertainty over the upcoming climate talks' host nation among Asia-Pacific countries. - Climate Home News

• India's Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor Achieves Criticality, marking a major step in the nuclear programme, showcasing advanced technology and boosting clean energy with indigenous development and self-reliance under Aatmanirbhar Bharat. - NewsOnAir

• Marco Rubio to Visit India for Strategic Talks, focusing on trade, critical minerals, defense, and the Quad alliance to address US-Israel-Iran conflict impacts and strengthen bilateral relations. - DW

• India’s Carbon Market Fuels New Business Strategies, transforming carbon credits into strategic assets that balance emissions reduction with economic value, offering fresh growth opportunities amid evolving global climate finance and decarbonization frameworks. - ET Edge Insights

• India-US Launch Trade Portal Targeting $500 Billion, aiming to double bilateral trade by connecting Indian exporters with US buyers under Mission 500 by 2030, while negotiating tariff structures for a beneficial trade agreement. - CNBC TV18

• Rajnath Singh to Visit Germany for Defence Summit, focusing on industry collaboration, strategic partnerships, and a $10-billion submarine deal involving German technology firms. - Economic Times

Opportunity

AI-Powered Investing in Europe

European investing is entering a new phase, one where artificial intelligence doesn't just power technology companies, but actively shapes how investment funds themselves are built and managed.

A well-established Swiss asset manager with deep roots in wealth management, Pictet, is now bringing five new exchange-traded funds to European markets, each constructed and monitored using AI-driven tools. This move reflects a broader shift happening across the global fund industry: the growing belief that machine intelligence can identify patterns, manage risk, and allocate capital more efficiently than traditional methods alone. For European investors, this represents a meaningful evolution in what low-cost, passive-style investing can actually deliver.

What makes this development particularly interesting is that these strategies are not simply technology funds, they span multiple themes and asset classes, using artificial intelligence as the engine underneath rather than the subject matter. The AI component is embedded in how the portfolios are constructed, how signals are interpreted, and how the funds adapt over time. This approach attempts to combine the cost advantages of traditional index-style investing with a layer of intelligence that can respond to changing market conditions. For retail investors, this could mean better risk management and smarter diversification, without the high fees typically associated with actively managed funds.

From an investor's perspective, the appeal here lies in accessibility, these are structured as ETFs, meaning they are tradeable, transparent, and generally lower in cost than traditional active funds. However, AI-driven strategies are still relatively new, and their long-term track records remain limited. Investors should consider how these fit alongside existing holdings and remain mindful that even intelligent systems cannot eliminate market risk. That said, for those curious about where fund innovation is heading, this is a space worth watching closely.

Read the full article here: ETF Stream

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As markets digest this week's turbulence, attention turns to Wednesday's release of Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April, a closely watched gauge of investor confidence that could either steady nerves or deepen concerns about Europe's largest economy.

Meanwhile, across the subcontinent, the air carries the first warmth of Baisakhi, the harvest festival marking new beginnings in Punjab and beyond, a reminder that renewal often arrives not through headlines but through seasons. Whether the coming days bring clarity on trade negotiations or fresh uncertainty, the underlying question remains the same: are we watching a temporary disruption or something more structural reshaping the global economic order? Next week may offer a few more pieces of that puzzle. Until then, trade carefully and think long.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed the week at 73,319.55, down 0.36% from last week’s 73,583.22. The market was weighed down by cautious investor sentiment amid mixed corporate earnings and concerns over inflation’s persistent impact. Key sectors influencing the index included banking, which faced pressure due to rising loan defaults, and consumer goods, where demand showed signs of slowing.

In Germany, the DAX rose notably by 3.89% to close at 23,168.08 compared to last week’s 22,300.75. The market gained momentum driven largely by better-than-expected industrial output and positive earnings reports from the automotive and manufacturing sectors. Investor confidence was further supported by easing energy price concerns after favorable supply updates, which eased cost pressures for energy-intensive industries.

Germany News Roundup

• Diesel Prices Hit Record High in Germany, reaching an unprecedented 2.327 euros per liter amid new pricing regulations and ADAC’s call for cartel authority intervention to moderate fuel costs. - Hallo München

• Oil Price Shock Raises Asphalt Costs 30%, impacting Germany’s road construction industry with soaring Bitumen prices and risking project delays amid fixed-price contracts and supply concerns. - Merkur

• Explosion in German ICE Train Investigated, with authorities probing political motives after multiple blasts caused minor injuries and a suspect linked to right-wing extremism was detained in custody. - DW

• Every Sixth German Firm Eyes Defense Sector, actively exploring opportunities in the defense industry amid growing market interest and potential government contracts. - Wiwo

• Merz Faces Backlash Over Syrian Refugee Return Plan, with critics highlighting lack of legal basis and economic risks, while underscoring Syrians’ vital role in Germany’s workforce and demographic stability. - Politico

• German commission proposes health cost caps, to address insurance shortfall and control rising expenses through tighter treatment pay, pharmaceutical limits, and higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol. - Economic Times Healthworld

• Germany Imposes Travel Permissions for Young Men, requiring men aged 17-45 to obtain approval before leaving for over three months, part of military expansion efforts to strengthen Bundeswehr by 2035. - United24Media

• Sirius Acquires €93m German Defence Park, expanding its defence-related assets with a high-occupancy business park anchored by Rheinmetall near Kiel’s naval base, promising steady income and growth potential. - IPE Real Assets“

India News Roundup

• India Sends Critical Fuel Support to Sri Lanka, delivering 38,000 metric tonnes amid West Asia conflict-induced supply chain disruptions to ensure Sri Lanka's fuel continuity with strategic cooperation between the two nations. - The Hindu

• India Launches World's First Digital Census 2027, set to begin on April 1, 2026, transforming data collection with advanced digital technology for comprehensive demographic insights. - VisionIAS

• Can India Thrive in Trump's World?, analyzing India's economic and geopolitical strategies to adapt and succeed amid shifting US policies under the Trump administration. - Carnegie Endowment

• India’s Defence Exports Soar to Rs 38,424 Crore, driven by a 63% surge with the US as the top importer, reflecting growing global acceptance and increased exporter numbers in FY26. - ThePrint

• FSSAI Makes Food Permits Permanent, enabling lifetime validity unless cancelled, simplifying registration, reducing renewal hassles, and introducing risk-based inspections while maintaining strict hygiene standards. - Times of India

• Jan Vishwas Bill Enhances Ease of Living, Business, by amending 784 provisions across 79 laws to decriminalise minor offences and simplify legal processes, promoting Modi's vision of a New India. - Times of India

• 3M India Exits Precision Grinding Business, following global sale with shareholders approving key leadership and related party transactions in a decisive postal ballot process concluded March 26, 2026. - ScanXNews

Opportunity

Gift City Fund

India's GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) is rapidly emerging as one of Asia's most exciting financial hubs, deliberately designed to compete with Singapore, Dubai, and Luxembourg. Located in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, it operates as an International Financial Services Centre (IFSC), meaning funds domiciled here follow international regulations, offer dollar-denominated investing, and enjoy significant tax advantages. For the Indian diaspora globally, and particularly the estimated 32+ million Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) worldwide, this represents a rare moment: a regulated, Indian-government-backed gateway to invest in India's booming economy without the traditional friction of domestic compliance hurdles.

The Opportunity in Detail

GIFT City funds are structured as Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) or fund-of-funds registered under IFSCA (the regulatory authority), allowing NRIs and foreign investors to invest in Indian equities, debt, and hybrid strategies using foreign currency, primarily US dollars. The key advantages are compelling:

• Tax efficiency: No capital gains tax within the IFSC jurisdiction for many instruments

• No FEMA complications: Investments flow smoothly without complex foreign exchange management rules

• Dollar-denominated returns: Protects against rupee volatility for overseas investors

• Access to Indian growth: Exposure to one of the world's fastest-growing major economies

Several asset management companies have launched active funds here. Notable ones currently operating include:

• Mirae Asset GIFT City Fund

• Motilal Oswal IFSC Fund

• ICICI Prudential GIFT City AIF

• Nippon India GIFT City Fund

• 360 ONE GIFT City Fund

These funds primarily target Indian equities and offer professional management tailored for internationally-based investors.

Investment Angle & Considerations

For NRIs sitting on foreign savings seeking India exposure, GIFT City funds offer a genuinely cleaner, tax-smart route compared to traditional NRE/NRO account investments. Minimum investment thresholds can be higher than typical retail mutual funds, and liquidity terms vary by fund structure. Regulatory frameworks, while improving, are still maturing. Always verify fund credentials through the official IFSCA registry before investing.

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As April begins, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting scheduled for the week ahead, where the committee faces the delicate task of balancing stubborn inflation against slowing growth, a tension that has defined much of the past year. Across the Atlantic, the United States releases its latest employment figures, a data point that continues to ripple through currency markets from Frankfurt to Mumbai.

Meanwhile, the first full trading week of April traditionally sets the tone for the second quarter, and investors worldwide will be watching closely to see whether the cautious optimism of recent weeks holds firm or quietly fades. The numbers will tell their own story soon enough.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

The Sensex closed at 73,583.22 this week, down 1.27% from last week’s 74,532.96. The market fell amid concerns over rising inflationary pressures and mixed corporate earnings results. The banking sector saw a cautious response following Reserve Bank of India comments suggesting a possible interest rate hike to curb inflation. Additionally, the tech sector faced selling pressure after a few key companies reported slower growth, which affected overall sentiment. Investors remained wary as global economic uncertainties continued to weigh on Indian equities.

The DAX ended the week at 22,300.75, a slight loss of 0.36% compared to 22,380.19 last week. Market movement was restrained due to ongoing concerns about economic growth in the Eurozone and the impact of recent energy price fluctuations. The automotive sector reacted negatively to disappointing export figures, while manufacturing stocks were pressured by weaker industrial output data released earlier in the week. Meanwhile, financial services showed some resilience, but overall the index traded cautiously against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and mixed economic signals.

Germany News Roundup

• Lufthansa Agrees Wage Deal for 20,000 Employees, including a 4.6% pay raise across over two years amid economic challenges, ensuring job security and no strike disruptions for ground staff in Germany. - Lufthansa Group Newsroom

• RENK Secures Major Puma Gearbox Contract, to supply 188 HSWL 256 gearboxes for Puma IFV’s 800-kW power system between 2027 and 2030, enhancing vehicle mobility and operational capability. - Hartpunkt

• SAP Acquires AI Data Specialist Reltio, to integrate advanced data management capabilities, enhancing AI readiness and data reliability across its Business Data Cloud platform. - Handelsblatt

• EU Imposes Fee on Small Parcels from Third Countries, aimed to cover rising costs of handling cheap imports mainly from China, effective from November to ensure fair competition and enhance package inspections at EU borders. - DIE ZEIT

• Deutsche Bahn Parts Ways with CFO Dohm Early, due to differing visions on the company’s future despite no doubts about her qualifications or integrity after just four months in the role. - DIE ZEIT

• Germany Considers Social Media Ban for Children, aiming to restrict or complicate access to protect young users after similar steps in Australia and ongoing legal challenges in the U.S. - PBS

• Germany’s €500bn Infrastructure Fund Falters, facing criticism for minimal new investment and primarily reshuffling existing expenditures, casting doubts on its effectiveness and economic impact under Chancellor Merz. - defence24.com

• Germany Invests in STRILA Drones for Ukraine, supporting production of 15,000 interceptor drones to enhance Ukrainian air defenses and enable future exports of surplus units. - RBC Ukraine

India News Roundup

• India Explores Local Currency for West Asian Oil, to cut costs and counter fiscal pressure from surging oil prices and rupee depreciation by paying about 80% of oil imports in local currencies instead of U.S. dollars. - The Hindu

• India Cuts Fuel Taxes Amid Iran War, bearing increased energy costs to shield consumers from soaring global oil prices, impacting fiscal revenue and economic growth projections. - CNBC

• India Secures Fuel Supplies Amid West Asia Tensions, ensuring 60 days of crude oil and one month of LPG availability, with increased domestic LPG production reducing import reliance and steady supply chains maintained despite demand surges. - The Hindu

• Foreign Investors Withdraw Record $12 Billion, from Indian stocks in March 2026 due to Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies and triggering fears of slowed economic growth and a weaker rupee. - CNBC

• Jaishankar Rejects India as Geopolitical Broker, stating India will not serve as a mediator in US-Iran talks despite Pakistan's proposal to host negotiations amid West Asia conflict. - India Today

• RBI Requires Two-Factor Authentication April 1, introducing enhanced security for all digital payments to prevent unauthorized transactions and protect user accounts across India. - Upstox

• Kotak Mahindra Nears Rs 4,500 Crore Deal, to acquire Deutsche Bank India's retail portfolio worth ₹27,000 crore, enhancing its consumer banking and wealth management segments. - Moneycontrol

• India Travel Booking Market to Hit $132B by 2032, driven by rising leisure travel, expanding middle class, digital and offline booking channels, and evolving consumer preferences fueling strong market growth. - Yahoo Finance

Opportunity

European Energy Stocks Are Back in Focus

The energy sector in Europe is quietly staging a comeback, and some of Wall Street's sharpest minds are taking notice. After years of turbulence driven by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and wild swings in oil and gas prices, the European energy landscape is entering a more stable but still highly dynamic phase. Energy remains the backbone of every economy, and with the twin pressures of energy security and the green transition pulling in opposite directions, companies that can navigate both worlds are becoming increasingly attractive to investors. The timing matters: policy support, infrastructure investment cycles, and recovering demand are all converging right now.

Goldman Sachs, one of the world's most closely watched investment banks has identified a shortlist of energy companies it believes are particularly well-positioned for the months ahead. The bank's analysts are looking at firms that combine strong cash generation with credible long-term strategies, whether in traditional fossil fuel operations, energy infrastructure, or the transition toward cleaner sources. What makes this noteworthy is that Goldman is not simply chasing renewable energy trends it is focusing on businesses with solid fundamentals. These are not speculative bets; they are companies with proven business models that happen to sit at a critical intersection of current energy demand and future energy needs.

For a retail investor, the energy sector offers an interesting mix of income potential through dividends and moderate growth exposur, but it is not without risk. Energy stocks can move sharply with oil prices, regulatory changes, or geopolitical events, so position sizing and diversification matter. If you are building a portfolio with some exposure to real assets and global energy trends, this space deserves a closer look.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here: Business Insider Germany

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As March gives way to April, attention will turn to a busy week of economic signals worth watching closely. India's fiscal year draws to a close on March 31st, a moment that tends to bring both reflection and recalibration across boardrooms and balance sheets.

Meanwhile, global markets will be parsing fresh manufacturing and services data from major economies, seeking clues about whether resilience or caution will define the second quarter. For Germany, the question of industrial momentum remains quietly open. Sometimes the turn of a calendar page is less a milestone than a prompt.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Stock Market

This week, the Indian Sensex edged down marginally by 0.04% to close at 74,532.96, showing relative stability amid a modestly negative sentiment. Market activity was influenced primarily by mixed corporate earnings reports and cautious reactions to global economic signals. The IT sector remained a key focus, with several major firms reporting steady quarterly results, helping to anchor investor confidence. Meanwhile, the banking sector faced some pressure due to concerns over rising loan default rates and tightening credit conditions.

In Germany, the DAX index experienced a notable decline, falling 4.55% to close the week at 22,380.19. This drop reflected heightened investor concerns following weaker-than-expected industrial data and clouds over the European economic outlook. The automotive sector, a significant component of the DAX, came under selling pressure due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and reduced demand forecasts. Additionally, the technology and manufacturing segments were weighed down by disappointing export figures and cautious corporate earnings guidance.

Germany News Roundup

• Copper Price Faces Sharp Collapse, amid rising US producer prices and a strong dollar pressuring metals, indicating a potential correction in precious and industrial metals markets. - wallstreet-online

• Knorr Faces Potential Billion-Euro Sale, with Unilever negotiating to sell its food division including Knorr to US spice maker McCormick amidst strategic business shifts, though deal certainty remains unclear. - t-online

• EU Imports More Cars from China Than Exports, reflecting a shift with a 6 billion euro trade deficit, pressuring German auto industry and causing job cuts amid a strategic electric vehicle investment reevaluation. - Tagesschau

• Thyssenkrupp Steel Deal with Jindal Falters, as negotiations stall with unanswered workforce questions, prompting IG Metall to demand clarity while exploring alternative plans excluding Jindal. - RP-Online

• Aldi Ends Kiosk-Free Shopping Experiment, after challenges with upfront deposits and customer dissatisfaction led to reverting to traditional checkout in London, reflecting broader retail trends questioning such technologies. - Web.de

• DAX Crash Reveals Europe’s Energy Crisis, as the conflict in the Middle East triggers soaring gas prices, prolonged supply disruptions, and stagnant economic outlooks with major financial impacts on German companies and markets. - Business Punk

• Germany’s Economy Faces Rapid Decline, grappling with energy policy failures, industrial decline, rising costs, and political inertia hindering structural reforms despite fiscal resources. - TradingView

• Germany’s Infrastructure Fund Misused, Sparking Debate, with reports showing up to 95% of its 500-billion-euro allocation diverted from the intended investment projects, raising concerns over government spending priorities. - Devdiscourse

• Germany Pushes EU for Stronger Syria Support, to accelerate Syria’s economic recovery and energy sector revival post-conflict through enhanced investments, policy focus, and multibillion-euro aid packages amid ongoing challenges. - Tekedia

India News Roundup

• AI's Limited Impact on India's IT Industry, explores why artificial intelligence has not triggered major disruptions within India's established IT sector, analyzing industry resilience and adaptation challenges. - Economist

• Honda Boosts Indian Motorcycle Production Capacity, by adding a new line at its Rajasthan plant to increase annual output to 2.01 million units, creating 2,000 jobs and expanding overall capacity to 8 million by 2028. - Honda Global Corporate Website

• India Diversifies LPG Imports Beyond West Asia, boosting US LPG imports to 176,000 tonnes to reduce reliance on West Asia amid supply disruptions and seeking other sources like Russia and Japan. - Times of India

• India's Semiconductor Market to Expand Rapidly, with growth to $300 billion by 2035 driven by AI, automotive, and data centres, supported by local production and major investments under government initiatives. - The Hindu

• India's Affordable Weight-Loss Drugs Revolution, will enable widespread access to semaglutide generics, drastically lower costs, and expand global obesity treatment through competitive domestic pharmaceutical production. - BBC

• Thomas Cook India to Demerge Resort Business, enhancing capital structure, improving earnings per share, and enabling focused growth with the potential future listing of Sterling Holiday Resorts Ltd. - The Hindu Business Line

• Bengaluru Hosts Berlin's Third International Office, supporting startups expanding between Berlin and India by easing business setup and market entry in both regions. - Deccan Herald

• Hapag-Lloyd and India Sign Maritime Intent, marking a strategic step to strengthen maritime collaboration between German shipping and Indian government sectors for enhanced economic and trade relations. - Hapag-Lloyd

Opportunity

The Tyre Sector - India

India's tyre industry is one of those sectors that rarely makes headlines, yet quietly powers one of the world's fastest-growing automobile markets. For years, tyre manufacturers were squeezed hard, raw material costs, particularly natural rubber and crude-oil-derived inputs, were stubbornly high, eating into margins and keeping profitability under pressure. But something meaningful has shifted. Input costs have begun moderating, and with India's vehicle volumes continuing to climb across passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers, the demand side of the equation looks increasingly compelling. This is not a flashy tech story, it is a fundamentals story, and those tend to be the most durable kind.

What makes this moment particularly interesting is the convergence of two positive forces arriving at the same time: falling costs and rising volumes. Tyre companies are seeing their profit margins expand as the gap between what they spend to produce and what they earn from sales widens. The replacement market, where vehicle owners buy new tyres independent of buying a new vehicle, adds a reliable, recurring layer of demand that is less sensitive to economic cycles than new vehicle sales alone. Additionally, the gradual shift toward larger, premium vehicles in India is nudging consumers toward higher-value tyre categories, which carry better margins for manufacturers. Export opportunities are also quietly growing as Indian tyre makers build global credibility.

For a retail investor, this sector offers an interesting entry point into a domestic consumption story with relatively straightforward business mechanics, companies buy raw materials, manufacture tyres, and sell them to automotive and retail channels. The key risks to watch include any sharp reversal in rubber or crude oil prices, which would compress margins again, and any slowdown in vehicle demand. Neither appears imminent based on current trends, but both deserve monitoring. If this kind of under-the-radar, margin-recovery story appeals to you, the full analysis breaks down exactly where the opportunity sits.

Read the full analysis and specific investment recommendations here:
Value Research - The tyre sector’s silent comeback

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As markets digest this week's signals, attention turns to a packed calendar ahead, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee wraps up its deliberations in early April, but before that, global investors will be watching flash PMI readings from the eurozone and India due late next week, offering the first real economic snapshot of March's business conditions.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the political calendar quietly advances as coalition-building conversations continue to shape who ultimately holds the reins in Europe's largest economy. Spring is arriving in both hemispheres, cherry blossoms in Frankfurt's parks, festival colours returning to Indian streets, a reminder that renewal has a habit of arriving whether markets are ready or not.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Two weeks ago, Operation Epic Fury began. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28th, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear facilities, military installations, and leadership. Iran’s response was swift and asymmetric: missile barrages on US bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, drone strikes on Israeli cities, and, most critically for the global economy, an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials made their position clear: no oil leaves the Gulf without Iran’s permission. They have been enforcing it with drone strikes on tankers attempting to pass.

Now fourteen days in, the conflict shows no sign of cooling. Iranian missiles are still striking central Israel; US and Israeli jets are still hitting Tehran neighborhoods. Trump has deployed an additional 5,000 sailors and marines to the region while publicly downplaying the Hormuz threat. The US Navy has destroyed Iranian mine-laying vessels in the strait, but the blockade remains effectively in place for Western-flagged ships. The one sliver of hope? Iran has selectively allowed certain vessels through, a Turkish ship cleared passage on March 13th, and critically, two Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi tanker carrying one million barrels of crude destined for India were permitted to pass. India, it seems, is being kept in a separate diplomatic lane, for now.

But “for now” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. India is the world’s second-largest LPG importer, with 85-90% of its LPG imports sourced from the Middle East. The impact is already at kitchen. Indian Oil Corporation raised the price of a 14.2kg domestic LPG cylinder by 7%, from ₹853 to ₹913 in Delhi. Commercial cylinders used by restaurants and hotels jumped from ₹1,768 to ₹1,883. Commercial cylinder supply has been completely suspended in some areas and some state introduced a 25-day rule between successive cylinder bookings to prevent hoarding. India’s government has urged domestic refiners to maximize LPG production, but the math is uncomfortable: India simply cannot substitute two-thirds of its LPG imports from domestic production overnight.​

Germany is feeling different but equally real pain. The country doesn’t import directly from the Gulf for most of its energy, relying primarily on Norwegian gas pipelines. But energy markets are interconnected, when Iran’s drone strikes disrupted Qatari LNG production, European wholesale gas prices surged regardless of where Germany physically sources its supply. Germany’s chemical, steel, glass, paper, and automotive industries already struggling after two years of near-recession, are now facing their second major energy shock in four years. The ifo Institute, Germany’s leading economic research body, has revised its spring forecast downward, warning that the Iran war consequences will dampen Germany’s recovery, though it stops short of predicting a return to recession if the conflict remains contained. The European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen has called for emergency subsidies and potential gas price caps to protect households and businesses.

On a lighter note, Germany delivered one this week, the country’s healthcare system announced something genuinely useful. From April onwards, heavy smokers aged between 50 and 75 who have smoked for at least 25 years will be entitled to a free annual lung cancer screening using low-dose CT scans, fully covered by statutory health insurance. The programme targets approximately 2 million people in Germany who meet the criteria, addressing a disease that kills around 45,000 Germans every year, almost all from long-term heavy smoking.

This week’s markets reflected all of this anxiety with painful clarity, Sensex shed over 5% in its worst weekly performance in four years, while DAX quietly bled as well, weighed down by energy cost concerns. We cover the full market breakdown in the Market Update section. And in our Opportunity section, we look at something that sits right at the intersection of this week’s conflict story and long-term European rearmament: the upcoming Frankfurt IPO of Vincorion, a German defense supplier that manufacturers critical power systems for NATO military platforms, and whose order backlog has grown to nearly five times its annual revenue.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Sensex registered its biggest weekly loss in four years this week. The index collapsed relentlessly through the week, closing Friday March 13th at 74,563, a staggering loss of over 5% in just five trading sessions. The driver was clear: the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict triggered a wave of panic selling. Energy stocks, auto stocks, and cement companies bore the brunt as oil price concerns hit sentiment hard. The only survivors were defensive names, consumer goods and telecom stocks, which ended marginally positive. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers throughout the week, amplifying the decline.

Germany’s DAX wasn’t spared either. The index closed Friday at 23,447, a weekly decline of approximately 0.6%. Over the past month, the DAX has shed over 6%, weighed down by the same Iran conflict fears, rising energy costs, and global risk-off sentiment. German industrial companies with energy-intensive operations are particularly vulnerable to oil price spikes.

Germany News Roundup

• Iran War Could Spike Inflation to 6%, raising concerns over prolonged conflict driving oil prices up and risking Germany’s entry into a fourth recession year with critical gas storage shortages. - Spiegel

• VW Regains Market Leadership in China, with a combined joint venture market share of 13.9%, surpassing competitors like Geely and Toyota in the Chinese automotive sector. - Handelsblatt

• Rheinmetall Rejects VW Osnabrück Factory Takeover, leaving the plant’s future uncertain as VW plans to decide on its fate by year-end amid dwindling production and ongoing industry talks. - NDR

• China Cuts Chemical Exports Disrupt Supply Chains, raising concerns as critical chemical supply chains face initial breaks impacting global industries and trade flows, particularly in Europe. - Wiwo

• Germany Faces Crucial Regional Elections, marking a pivotal political year with five key elections impacting national governance and policy direction. - Deutsche Welle

• Germany Upholds Nuclear Power Phase-Out, rejecting calls for a return despite EU support, with Chancellor Merz emphasizing energy policy consistency and opposition parties firmly against reviving nuclear energy amid economic and political challenges. - DW

• New AI Data Centre Investment in Amberg, marks a strategic step towards European tech independence with a 30MW facility, costing hundreds of millions, aiming for operational status by 2027 without state subsidies. - Brandsit

• Tesla Triumphs in German Labour Council Vote, defeating IG Metall union’s bid to control the works council amid accusations of employee pressure and union-busting tactics at its Berlin factory. - Times of India

India News Roundup

• PM Discusses Iran's Situation with President, expressing concern over regional security, emphasizing dialogue, and prioritizing safety of Indian nationals and uninterrupted transit of energy and goods. - PMO India

• US-Iran Conflict Impacts India and Asia More, with India, Japan, and South Korea facing direct economic and security challenges unlike China due to energy, labor, and geopolitical dependencies in the Middle East. - ORF Online

• India Secures Majority Crude Imports Outside Hormuz, ensuring stable supply through 40 countries and enhanced LNG procurement amid regional tensions, while government monitors seafarer safety and port operations remain stable. - Newsonair

• India's Supreme Court Permits First Passive Euthanasia, authorizing withdrawal of artificial life support for a vegetative 32-year-old man after 12 years, marking the first judicial approval of passive euthanasia in India. - Aljazeera

• India Plans $11B Fund to Boost Chipmaking, aiming to become a global hub by subsidising chip design, manufacturing equipment, and supply chain development with launch expected in 2-3 months. - CNBC TV18

• Indonesia to Acquire BrahMos Missiles from India, enhancing its military hardware and maritime defense capabilities through this significant procurement deal valued between $200-$350 million. - Business Times

• India Strengthens Tourism Ties at ITB Berlin, with Germany and Indonesia, focusing on sustainable travel, air connectivity, and cultural exchanges to boost tourism flows and showcase India's diverse tourism offerings globally. - PIB

Opportunity

Vincorion’s Frankfurt IPO

Europe’s defense spending surge is creating a rare window: established, profitable defense companies rushing to go public before the opportunity window narrows. The latest and most immediately actionable is Vincorion, a Hamburg-area German defense supplier specializing in power systems and mechatronics for military platforms. The company makes hybrid energy systems, emergency power generators, stabilization systems for tanks, heaters for military aircraft, and critical components for air defense systems including the US-made Patriot missile system.

The business fundamentals are compelling. Vincorion generated €240 million in revenue in 2025, more than double its revenue just three years ago and sits on an order backlog worth approximately €1.1 billion, nearly five times its annual revenue. That backlog isn’t speculative; it represents confirmed future work from NATO member countries, Rheinmetall, KNDS, and Airbus. Institutional investors Fidelity, Invesco, and T. Rowe Price have already pre-committed €105 million before the IPO even opens, a strong signal of institutional confidence. The company is being valued at €850 million, six times its valuation when private equity firm Star Capital acquired it just four years ago, reflecting how dramatically the European defense investment landscape has transformed.

The IPO opens for subscription on Monday, March 16th, with shares priced at a fixed €17 each, and trading expected to begin on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on March 20th. For retail investors in Germany, this is accessible through standard brokerage accounts, a direct way to participate in Europe’s rearmament cycle without buying into already-expensive defense giants trading at elevated valuations. As with any IPO, risks exist: geopolitical developments could shift defense priorities, and post-IPO price volatility is common. But with a locked-in order backlog and cornerstone institutional investors already committed, Vincorion’s debut deserves serious attention.​

Read the full details on the Vincorion IPO here:
MarketScreener: Defense Supplier Vincorion Rushes Toward IPO

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted before, and every time, the world found a way through. Whether through diplomatic back-channels, alternative shipping routes, or strategic reserves buying time, these crises eventually resolve. The question was never if, but how long. As we head into Week 12, watch Trump's diplomatic signals toward Iran, any ceasefire hint will trigger an immediate oil price drop and market relief rally.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

For India, this isn’t just a geopolitical headline. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil, with a significant portion traditionally sourced from the Gulf region. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on oil facilities and airports in neighboring countries have already rattled energy markets. A sustained conflict means higher oil import bills, upward pressure on Indian inflation, potential rupee depreciation, and fiscal stress on a government that had just presented a growth-oriented budget. It also means anxiety for the millions of Indian workers employed across Gulf states, whose remittances are a critical lifeline for families back home.​

Amid the geopolitical turbulence, two distinctly German stories also made headlines this week. From September this year, visitors to Cologne Cathedral, one of Germany’s most iconic landmarks attracting 6.6 million tourists annually, will need to pay an entrance fee for the first time in the cathedral’s centuries-long history. The cathedral chapter cited rising costs of maintenance, security, and operations.

And then there’s bahn.bet. A Vienna-based artist named Caio van Caarven launched a satirical website this week that looks exactly like a sports betting portal except users bet fictional Euros on how late specific Deutsche Bahn trains will arrive. Using real-time train data and AI-generated code, the platform gives new users 1,000 fictional Euros to place wagers on actual long-distance train delays. The website went viral almost immediately.

In this week’s Opportunity section, we look at the defense stocks analysts identify as direct beneficiaries of the Iran conflict, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian equity market ended the week on a bearish note, with the Sensex closing at 78,918.9, down 2.9% from the previous week’s 81,287.2. The decline was mainly driven by broad-based selling pressure across key sectors, particularly financials and IT, amid concerns over tightening liquidity conditions.

The DAX closed the week at 23,591.03 points, down approximately 6.7% from the previous week’s 25,284.26, marking a notable correction. Despite the decline, the index showed resilience on Friday by resisting negative pressure stemming primarily from a sell-off in US tech stocks.

Germany News Roundup

• Trump Meets Germany’s Merz Amid Iran Conflict, discussing leadership uncertainties in Iran and collaboration on post-conflict strategies while addressing rising oil prices and international responses to the U.S.-Israel military campaign. - PBS NewsHour

• Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher, as crude oil prices surge 14%, surpassing a crucial threshold amid escalating tensions, impacting global energy markets and economic stability. - Handelsblatt

• German Industry Warns on China’s Five-Year Plan, expressing concerns about China’s push for high-tech dominance and urging investment in key technologies and resilient supply chains amid climate policy shortcomings. - FAZ

• European Airlines See Demand Rise Amid Iran Conflict, as Gulf carriers reduce flights, benefiting Lufthansa and others despite operational challenges caused by regional instability. - Handelsblatt

• German Property Prices Decline Three Months, with mixed trends showing rising condo prices but slight falls in new single-family house values according to the Europace House Price Index. - FinanzMarktWelt

• Merz Proposes Pension Linked to Working Years, urging citizens to start saving early, suggesting even €50 monthly can secure a substantial pension by retirement at 65 or later. - Tagesspiegel

• Bundeswehr Conducts Large-Scale NATO Medical Drill, simulating evacuation and treatment of up to 1000 wounded soldiers daily from Lithuania, highlighting logistical challenges and readiness gaps before a potential conflict with Russia. - BILD

• US Excludes Rosneft Germany from Russia Sanctions, allowing the energy company to continue operations despite ongoing sanctions on Russia. - TVP World

India News Roundup

• Mark Carney Resets Canada-India Relations, focusing on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership, energy cooperation, critical minerals, and academia despite lingering security tensions from 2023 diplomatic fallout. - The Conversation

• India-Finland Elevate Ties with Strategic Partnership, agreeing to deepen cooperation in digitalization, sustainability, trade, and multilateral issues to enhance bilateral relations and global collaboration by 2030. - pmindia.gov.in

• India Secures Uranium via Canada Deal, boosting nuclear fuel supply from 2027 to 2035 to support expanding nuclear power and military programs despite challenges in domestic uranium extraction and program delays. - The Hindu

• Middle East Conflict Risks $50B Indian Remittances, threatening income of millions of Indian workers in the Gulf and possibly impacting India's economy if the conflict prolongs beyond six months amid rising oil prices and higher aviation costs. - CNBC

• US Grants 30-Day Waiver for Indian Russian Oil Imports, allowing India limited time to continue purchasing Russian oil despite sanctions, impacting global energy trade dynamics. - VisionIAS

• India Revises GDP Measurement Framework, introducing updated base year 2022–23 and improved calculation methods for more accurate economic representation and growth projections. - Finshots

• India-Germany AIP Submarine Deal Boosts Naval Power, acquiring six advanced submarines built in India with German technology to enhance underwater warfare capabilities and maritime security by 2036 under Project-75I. - Indian Masterminds Stories

• ePlane Integrates HENSOLDT for Electric Air Taxi, enhancing the e200X with advanced avionics for safe, efficient urban flight and supporting certification under India’s DGCA regulations. - Indianweb2

Opportunity

When Conflict Drives Defense Demand

The US-Israel strikes on Iran this week didn’t just reshape Middle East geopolitics-they sent an immediate signal to defense investors. When military conflict escalates, the demand for specific defense capabilities follows a predictable two-phase pattern that creates identifiable investment opportunities. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock has mapped this playbook clearly: the companies that benefit first are those supplying systems that get consumed or damaged fastest in active combat - drones, kamikaze systems, air defense, and surveillance platforms.

The first phase of any sustained conflict drives immediate demand for battlefield-ready systems. Unmanned aerial vehicles - both reconnaissance drones and so-called kamikaze drones that self-destruct on impact, are central to modern warfare in a way they weren’t a decade ago. Iran’s conflict history and geography make air superiority and intelligence-gathering capabilities particularly critical. Alongside direct weapons systems, companies specializing in military maintenance, spare parts, and logistics services benefit significantly, the harder military aircraft and systems are used, the faster they require servicing and replacement components. These aftermarket defense businesses are often overlooked but generate highly recurring, predictable revenue streams during extended conflicts.​

The second phase is where long-term investors pay close attention. As conflicts extend beyond weeks into months, military stockpiles deplete and governments shift from immediate procurement to systematic replenishment programs. This phase typically involves larger contracts, longer production cycles, and companies with capabilities in propulsion systems, hypersonic weapons, and precision strike technologies. One important note of caution from Leshock himself: most of these companies are already trading at elevated valuations, markets have anticipated much of this upside. For investors considering entry, disciplined risk management and strict stop-loss orders are essential rather than optional.​

Read the full analyst breakdown with detailed company analysis on stock3:
stock3: Direct Beneficiaries of the Iran War — Analyst Names These Companies

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

As the Iran conflict enters its second week with no ceasefire in sight, all eyes next week turn to Wednesday’s US CPI data, which will tell us whether war-driven oil prices are already feeding into American inflation, and consequently, how the Federal Reserve responds.

For India, the RBI finds itself in a difficult spot: oil assumed at $70 per barrel in its last policy review is now trading above $80, potentially forcing an uncomfortable revision to India’s inflation and growth forecasts. Every passing day of conflict reshapes the economic math quietly and next week’s data will begin putting numbers to that reality

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Let’s start closer to home. Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz made one of his first major foreign policy moves by travelling to Beijing for talks with Chinese leadership. The symbolism was deliberate, Europe’s largest economy signalling that despite transatlantic tensions with Washington, it intends to maintain its own independent relationship with China. For German industry, which has billions of euros tied up in Chinese supply chains and markets, Merz’s trip was less about geopolitics and more about pragmatism: Germany needs trading partners, and China, complicated as it is, remains one of its largest. How these conversations evolve will have direct implications for German exports, DAX-listed companies with China exposure, and ultimately the broader European economic outlook.

Back in Germany itself, daily life was disrupted this week as public transport workers launched another strike, bringing buses, trams, and regional trains to a standstill in major cities. For the millions of commuters who depend on Germany’s public transport network, it was a frustrating reminder that wage negotiations between unions and transport operators remain far from resolved. For the broader German economy already navigating sluggish growth, recurring strikes add friction at precisely the wrong moment.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Israel, a visit carrying enormous diplomatic weight. India has historically maintained carefully balanced relationships in the Middle East, and Modi’s presence in Tel Aviv signals both solidarity with an old strategic partner and a desire to keep diplomatic channels open during one of the region’s most volatile periods in decades. India imports significant quantities of oil from the region and has hundreds of thousands of workers employed across Gulf states. Any escalation affects India directly, and Modi’s visit was as much about protecting India’s interests as it was about diplomacy.

And then came the development that overshadowed everything else: the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. Details remained fluid as this newsletter went to press, but the implications are already reverberating through global markets. Oil prices spiked. Safe-haven assets moved. The Gulf region, which accounts for a significant portion of India’s oil imports and employs millions of Indian workers, is once again at the center of a crisis that no one can fully predict.

In this week’s opportunity section, we cover why global India funds offer NRIs in Germany a smarter way to access India’s growth story.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market experienced a modest bearish trend this week, with the Sensex closing at 81,287.19, down 1.84% from the previous week’s 82,814.71. Sector performance was mixed, with power and select financial stocks maintaining relative strength, while IT and export-oriented sectors faced profit-taking pressures. RBI’s dovish stance along with steady PMI readings supported sentiment, but cautious FII flows and subdued GST collections indicated tempered domestic demand. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and corporate earnings for directional cues next week.

The German stock market (DAX) showed marginal gains this week, closing at 25,284.26 points, just 0.09% above last week’s close of 25,260.69. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) disruptions, which have led to significant sell-offs in US technology stocks, notably the Nasdaq. However, the DAX exhibited relative stability in comparison. Market participants closely monitored geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, with the potential for military action spooking markets temporarily.

Germany News Roundup

• Merz’s Visit to Reaffirm Germany-China Cooperation, aims to boost bilateral economic ties, deepen political dialogue, and promote pragmatic cooperation amidst global uncertainties and EU’s cautious stance on China. - China Daily

• Germany’s Major Push for One-Way Attack Drones, includes contracts worth billions for domestic makers to supply advanced kamikaze drones, signaling a shift in military strategy and adaptation to modern warfare realities. - Defense News

• Amazon Faces Major Ordering Disruption, impacting users in Germany and the UK, causing technical errors and preventing order placements across platforms worldwide. - Merkur

• Ikea to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Germany, affecting nearly 280 staff at Rostock call center in response to automation and retail changes, sparking criticism over needed social protections. - t-online

• Bosch to Cut 22,000 Jobs in Germany, aims to secure competitiveness and adapt to the changing auto industry with voluntary job cuts, impacting mobility sector until 2025 and beyond. - Heise

• Germany Plans to End Small Solar Installation Subsidies, halting fixed feed-in tariffs and mandating direct marketing for new solar systems up to 25 kW, risking reduced citizen adoption of renewable energy solutions. - Tagesspiegel

• German Job Market Still Faces Over 3 Million Unemployed, with minimal decline in unemployment and high demand for social benefits signaling ongoing economic challenges in early 2026. - BILD

India News Roundup

• India-Israel Strengthen Trade and Defence Ties, with agreements enhancing collaboration in defence technology, AI, cybersecurity, and increasing Indian workforce in Israel despite Gaza conflict tensions. - Al Jazeera

• India Signs Critical Minerals Deal with Brazil, to reduce Chinese dependency by boosting supply chain resilience and expanding trade, particularly in rare earths vital for technology and renewable energy sectors. - Aljazeera

• AI Pressures Indian IT Stocks Sharply, prompting significant market decline despite strategic partnerships and growth opportunities in AI technology adoption by major companies like TCS and Infosys. - CNBC

• India Unveils Comprehensive PRAHAAR Counter-Terror Policy, establishing a unified intelligence-led framework addressing hybrid threats, digital radicalization, and international cooperation to strengthen national security and preempt terror attacks effectively. - ORF Online

• Indian Startup Layoffs Surpass 4,500 in Eight Months, reflecting significant business pressures affecting the sector's employment landscape amid economic challenges. - People Matters

• Bombardier Sees Growth in India's Business Jet Sector, India's aviation infrastructure upgrades present a significant opportunity for Bombardier to expand its business jet sales in the long term, says CEO Eric Martel. - The Hindu Business Line

• India-Germany Collaborate on AI Veterinary Care, advancing diagnostic accuracy and student exchanges through a strategic partnership fostering veterinary innovation and research from 2026 to 2030. - Times of India

• Germany's INDEX Opens Bengaluru Tech Centre, to enhance manufacturing solutions and customer support, tapping into India's growing industrial demand with CNC machine showcases and consulting services. - Deccan Herald

Opportunity

The Global Indian Funds

India’s growth story is genuinely compelling. GDP growing at 8.2% annually, Morgan Stanley comparing India’s current trajectory to the United States of the 1980s, corporate earnings rising, and $270 billion in fresh AI investment commitments just this week. You already know this story better than most global investors, you’ve lived it. But as someone earning Euros in Germany, how you invest in India matters as much as whether you invest.

Here’s what most people overlook. If you invest directly in Indian markets through an NRE/NRO account in INR, you carry a hidden currency risk. EUR/INR moved from approximately 90 to 107 over the past year, nearly 19% Euro appreciation. A healthy 15% Sensex return during the same period would have delivered a net loss in Euro terms after currency conversion. Your Indian portfolio grew, but your actual purchasing power in Germany shrank. This is the structural challenge every NRI faces with direct INR-denominated investments.

Global India ETFs and funds solve this elegantly. Your investment stays denominated in Euros. The fund internally tracks Indian stocks, capturing India’s growth but when the Rupee depreciates against the Euro, the fund price adjusts accordingly, protecting your purchasing power in Germany. You get the best of both worlds: exposure to one of the world’s fastest-growing equity markets, with the currency stability of a Euro-denominated product. For NRIs managing finances across two countries, this isn’t just convenient, it’s genuinely smarter portfolio construction. Over 4,800 listed Indian companies, including roughly 600 with market caps above $1 billion, are accessible through these funds without a single currency conversion headache.

Read DAS Investment’s full ranking of the best-performing India funds over five years here:
DAS Investment: The Best India Funds 2026

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

This week the world moved fast, perhaps too fast to fully digest. But markets have a way of catching up with reality, and next week will likely be about exactly that: digestion. In India, all eyes will be on the RBI's monetary policy response to the Iran escalation and its impact on oil import costs, a spike in crude prices is effectively a tax on the Indian economy, and the central bank cannot ignore it.

In Germany, wage negotiation deadlines loom for transport workers, and Merz returns from Beijing with either a trade framework or empty hands, either outcome moves markets differently. And somewhere in the background, the EU-India free trade agreement implementation begins its first formal review cycle, quietly laying the foundation for a trading relationship that could define the next decade far more than any single week's headlines.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

The India AI Impact Summit 2026 was arguably the most significant technology event ever hosted on Indian soil. Sam Altman called India his second-largest and fastest-growing market. Sundar Pichai announced a $15 billion Google AI hub. And 88 countries signed the New Delhi Declaration, making India the first developing nation to chair a global AI governance framework.

In this week’s newsletter, we cover India’s landmark AI summit and what it means for Indian equity markets, the beauty industry’s surprisingly resilient investment case, market updates from both India and Germany, and keep you informed on the developments that matter.

Let’s dive in.

Stock Market

The Indian stock market exhibited marginal gains this week, with the Sensex closing at 82,814.71, up 0.23% from the previous week’s 82,626.76. Market breadth remained mixed amid cautious investor sentiment, supported by steady domestic demand and positive earnings in the power and financial sectors. However, IT stocks showed moderate consolidation.

The German stock market, as measured by the DAX, closed the week at 25,260.69 points, marking a moderate weekly gain of approximately 1.39% from the previous close of 24,914.88. The market saw initial calmness early in the week but faced renewed investor caution from Thursday onwards, mainly driven by concerns over the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Large technology stocks were notably impacted, reflecting investor scrutiny of tech giants’ profitability amid soaring AI-related investments and widening discrepancies between reported earnings and free cash flow.

Germany News Roundup

• Germany Inflation Climbs 2.1% in January, with food and services driving price rises despite falling energy costs, indicating stronger price pressures at the start of 2026. - DW

• Renault Earns More Per Car Than Volkswagen, outperforming major competitors with a 6.3% operating margin despite industry challenges and high losses from Nissan stake revaluation. - Handelsblatt

• New MVG Strike Expected in Munich, Verdi plans a strike in Munich’s public transport within two weeks, demanding higher wages and reduced hours, causing concern over potential service disruptions and fare increases. - tz

• Chancellor Merz Advocates Real Name Policy Online, aiming to end internet anonymity to protect liberal society and counteract harmful algorithmic influences and threats to democracy, while SPD opposes this measure. - Tagesschau

• Massive Job Cuts Threaten Deutsche Bahn IT Subsidiary, with plans to cut up to 4000 jobs by 2029 amid proposed decentralization and concerns over cybersecurity risks from Deutsche Bahn’s IT service unit DB Systel. - heise.de

• Raising Retirement Age to 70 Under Discussion, potentially affecting those born from 1970 onwards with financial and policy implications amid debates on early retirement penalties and contribution adjustments. - Merkur

• Plato Raises $14.5M Seed Funding, to enhance its AI-powered platform for wholesale distributors, focusing on customer service, procurement, and international growth opportunities. - The SaaS News

• Munich Re’s Ergo Plans Major Job Cuts, to reduce approximately 1,000 positions in Germany, citing increased artificial intelligence use in its operations. - Intelligent Insurer

• Germany’s DB Cargo Plans Major Job Cuts, aiming to cut 6,000 jobs as part of efforts to restore profitability in a challenging market environment. - Global Banking & Finance Review

• Berlin-Hamburg Railway Renovation Delays Persist, with severe winter weather and underground cabling issues pushing completion beyond the original April deadline, affecting thousands of daily passengers and extending train journeys. - Yahoo News

India News Roundup

• Modi's Vision: Top 3 AI Superpower by 2047, aims for India to lead globally in AI creation, impacting healthcare, education, governance, and empowering citizens with inclusive, human-centric technology and strong safety regulations. - PMIndia

• Lufthansa Group Expands Partnership with Air India, to enhance market access, increase connections, and jointly market flights, strengthening ties between India and the EU's aviation sectors. - Lufthansa Group Newsroom

• India-France Elevate Partnership With 21 Agreements, covering defence upgrades, joint technology initiatives, critical minerals cooperation, innovation networks, and renewable energy collaboration through strategic dialogues and centres of excellence. - Newsonair

• India Considers Age Restrictions on Social Media, continuing discussions with companies to regulate access for minors amid growing global adoption and concerns over digital content and safety. - CNBC

• India Joins US-Led Pax Silica Coalition, partnering with major economies to secure resilient electronics and critical minerals supply chains against geopolitical risks and economic coercion. - The Hindu

• EAM Jaishankar Meets G-4 Counterparts in Germany, to discuss reformed multilateralism during their first meeting at Munich Security Conference 2026, highlighting cooperation between India, Germany, Japan, and Brazil. - News On AIR

• Sarvam Launches Two Advanced AI Language Models, optimised for real-time efficiency and complex reasoning to support enterprise applications like coding assistance and analytics while reducing inference costs. - The Economic Times

AI Impact Summit - India

New Delhi was the center of the global technology universe this week. Not Silicon Valley. Not Beijing. Not London. New Delhi.

From February 16-21, Bharat Mandapam hosted the India AI Impact Summit 2026—the fourth in a series of landmark global AI summits following previous editions in the UK, South Korea, and France. But this one was different. For the first time in the history of these global gatherings, the host country was from the Global South and it arrived not as a student seeking guidance, but as a confident host setting the agenda.

Over five lakh visitors attended, with 3,250 speakers across 500+ sessions. The who’s who of global technology was present: OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s leadership, AMD, Blackstone.

The numbers that emerged were jaw-dropping. Total AI infrastructure investment commitments crossed $270 billion. Out of this, $250 billion was pledged for AI infrastructure alone data centers, compute capacity, semiconductor facilities, and energy systems. Another $20 billion came in venture capital and deep-tech investments.​​

To put that in context: India’s entire Union Budget for 2026-27 is approximately ₹50 lakh crore (roughly $580 billion). The AI summit generated investment pledges worth nearly half the national budget in just five days.

The individual corporate announcements were equally significant:

• OpenAI launched “OpenAI for India” committed to building data center infrastructure in partnership with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to run its most advanced models securely within India

• Google announced a $15 billion full-stack AI hub in India, calling it one of its most significant global investments

• Microsoft confirmed it is on pace to invest $50 billion in AI across the Global South by the end of the decade, with India as the primary destination

• AMD declared collaboration with Tata Group for AI capabilities

• Blackstone joined a $600 million equity funding round for Indian AI infrastructure firm Neysa

Sam Altman, who met PM Modi personally, said it best: “India is already our second-largest market, growing incredibly fast. The energy here, the excitement of builders with AI in India for the entire stack is amazing to see”. Coming from the CEO of the world’s most valuable AI company, that’s not diplomatic courtesy that’s a genuine business assessment.​

The summit concluded with the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration on AI Impact, endorsed by 88 countries and international organizations. Structured around seven pillars from democratizing AI resources to secure and trusted AI, the declaration positions India as the defining voice for how AI should be governed and deployed in the developing world.​

PM Modi framed India’s vision around three core principles and seven focus areas (”Sutras” and “Chakras”), emphasizing that AI must be human-centric, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable. India also unveiled 12 indigenous foundation models under the IndiaAI Mission, trained on Indian datasets and supporting all 22 official languages—demonstrating that India isn’t just attracting foreign AI, it’s building its own.

Opportunity

The Business of Looking Beautiful

Here’s an industry that doesn’t care about recessions, trade wars, or AI selloffs: the global beauty and medical aesthetics market. People spent $38 billion on medical aesthetics alone in 2024, treatments like Botox, hyaluronic fillers, and non-invasive skin procedures and analysts expect this market to grow at around 10% every year until 2035. To put that in perspective, it took from 2020 to 2024 for the number of people getting cosmetic procedures worldwide to jump from 25 million to 38 million annually. That’s not a trend, that’s a structural shift.​

Three forces are driving this growth simultaneously. First, aging populations in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, people are living longer and increasingly willing to spend on looking younger. Second, rising middle-class incomes in Asia, particularly China, where beauty treatments are becoming mainstream rather than luxury. Third, and this is particularly interesting: social media. Nearly one in four patients under 30 say Instagram and TikTok directly influenced their decision to get a cosmetic treatment. The share of Botox treatments among under-30s jumped from 7.1% in 2024 to 8.8% in just one year. GenZ is becoming the beauty industry’s fastest-growing customer segment.​

Interestingly, experts describe a phenomenon called the “Lipstick Effect”, even during economic hardships, people keep spending on small beauty indulgences. Lipstick sales rose during America’s Great Depression in the 1930s. This makes beauty stocks somewhat recession-resistant, which is a rare quality in today’s volatile markets. For retail investors wanting exposure to this theme without picking individual stocks, ETF options exist that bundle this opportunity across multiple companies.​

Read the full analysis with specific ETF recommendations here:
DAS Investment: ETFs that invest in Beauty Stocks

Until Next Sunday…

Conclusion

This Friday, February 27th, India will release its brand new GDP series with base year 2022-23. This isn’t a routine quarterly update. It’s a complete statistical overhaul incorporating GST transaction data, UPI payment flows, E-Vahan portal data, and more modern data sources that better capture India’s digitally transformed economy.

On the European side, Wednesday, February 25th brings Germany’s Q4 2025 GDP figures alongside Eurozone inflation data for January. Markets expect modest German quarterly growth of around 0.3%, small, but meaningful for an economy that contracted in 2024. The same day, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak, potentially offering clues about the pace of future interest rate decisions. For EUR/INR watchers, her tone matters.

Stay informed, stay invested, and see you next week.

See you next Sunday,
Jimit Patel

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment recommendations are my personal views, and I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make. News items are hand-picked, but summaries are AI-generated and reviewed by me. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.